Eurovision 2025: The Blind Preview
We’re back and this September 1st no broadcaster has beaten us to the punch making this preview as blind as possible.
Beginning at the top I see little argument for Ukraine to slip down after another strong performance in 2024 and a further reminder of their immense current inbuilt voting power. Vidbir usually throws up something of merrit with the main danger there being the volatile often political jury making a sub-optimal pick. Jury/producers/powers that be may also be wary of pushing for the victory.
Italy and Sweden follow with little to split the pair. The change of show producer at San Remo back to Carlo Conti isn’t the most exciting development but realistically quality won’t be affected. Sweden’s Melodifestivalen for all it’s staleness remains one of the safer places for something to emerge from but I don’t have much sense who their next Eurovision winner could be or what to look out for in their lineup. Reinforced jury tastes and growing landslides for ultra-polished products with an air of epic-ness (Tattoo, The Code) makes them incredibly dangerous as the most likely source of another strong visually concept.
Norway once again start in 4th place in my book for similar reasons: They’ve had all the winning ingredients over the last decade just not in a single package. 2024’s eventual flop doesn’t overly faze whilst mgp is heading into new hands which can perhap’s build on the foundations put in place.
My first adjustment from last year’s list sees France jump a place after Slimane’s strong result and one way or another they have been regularly featuring among the runners and riders in the past decade. Greece follow with Marina Satti re-invigorating national interest after many years of lesser known artists and/or disappointing results. The UK start at a similar price to last year. Despite Olly Alexander not quite working out regardless of gym locker staging, there is still an encouraging ambition and the result offers a lot of learning opportunites if the BBC were taking notes.
Dropping down considerably are Spain who are now left with more misses than hits in terms of results from the three years of Benidorm Fest. I’ve also become less impressed year on year with the standard and tone of the field there with rtve having trouble getting a bigger domestic audience.
This year's joker in the pack, The Netherlands' price is one that will attract a lot of attention I'm sure but the probabilities behind the win seem a little off. Firstly the Dutch view seems to be that participation itself is unlikely. Then factor in the chance of the representative being Joost and then him actually winning and I wouldn't be too optimistic without insider knowledge. If the Netherlands are present and with Joost in situ we'd likely be looking at 6s rightly or not, with another artist 30s+.
Armenia start around a similar mark as usual and are another country where the win feels overdue. Serbia and Lithuania are typically safe picks to qualify at a minimum with competetive national finals and strong voter bases. Iceland frequently punch above their weight and further flirtations with Bashar Murad or a Dadi Freyr return are not unlikely all things considered. That is tempered against the high standard deviation of their entries and chance of being left with a d.o.a entry. Finland are the final country I would place in this not quite a frontrunner but more likely than average range.
Stepping into more unlikely territory gives us Israel who also have question marks over their participation but have shown their televote potential. Juries have however shown that on the whole they are having none of it which can afford us some more certainty here. More geopolitical developments could see them shorten in. Croatia take a boost to this sort of starting price for me. Despite ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim’ coming from nowhere pretty much, there is a renewed interest in the contest in Croatia that could provide inspiration and to be fair despite originally overlooking Baby Lasagna, HRT did go all out for the win. Ireland too make a jump following their most successful attempt in decades, although I don't see quite the same uptick in enthusiasm or ambition.
The rest of the pack more or less fills itself out or doesn't offer much to discuss so focusing on a select few Australia, Azerbaijan and Denmark start at lower points for me as does Czechia with their participation up in the air.
Poland remain in their usual sort of position for me and have been linked with Jo Jo Siwa. I don't know if I gain or lose street cred for admitting I’ve heard the name and that's about it. Initial impression would be ‘talking point’ and not much else. Cyprus are the most liable to announce first and have been once again linked with an unearthed George Michael ballad.
Switzerland last year began reasonably high up the list but still at a generous 33-1 with their internal selection process finally getting them over the line after strong recent efforts. Naturally, hosts always take a step down in the odds and Switzerland are on the ‘less likely’ end of the spectrum to attempt to defend their crown.
Georgia are the outsider to have increased their chances the most in my book having shown improved form but remain towards the bottom of the list
At the bottom of of the pack I welcome back Montenegro by assigning them the ultimate underdog tag amongst confirmed participants.
The fictional escbetting sportsbook with a reasonable margin is therefore opening with the following odds (bets stand run or not):
Ukraine 6
Italy 10
Sweden 10
Norway 16
France 16
Greece 20
The UK 20
The Netherlands 25
Armenia 25
Spain 25
Finland 25
Iceland 25
Serbia 25
Lithuania 25
Finland 25
Israel 33
Croatia 33
Ireland 33
Australia 40
Belgium 40
Estonia 40
Luxembourg 40
Germany 40
Poland 40
Portugal 40
Cyprus 40
Malta 50
Switzerland 50
Denmark 66
Georgia 80
Moldova 80
Slovenia 80
Austria 80
Azerbaijan 100
San Marino 100
Albania 150
Latvia 150
Montenegro 250
Czechia 300
For the complete stab in the dark I will dissapoint fans hoping for a cheaper destination next year and have a guess at Norway as next year's winner.
Feel free to leave a comment and let me know who I am sleeping on and where your fake pennies are going.