Sanremo 2025 Blind Preview
If last year’s blind prediction called anything correctly it was indeed that my streak of calling the winner at this early stage was certainly in a lot of danger and even a late change of prediction during the week itself couldn’t save me with the previously dismissed Angelina Mango strolling to victory. Concerningly, this year on paper is even more complicated at this stage with no strong frontrunner. We have a new showrunner too in Carlo Conti (who previously took the helm in 2015-2017) and despite longer and perhaps “stuffier” shows I don’t sense any truly significant dynamics changing. For a full simplified overview of the rules see Eurovoix’s article here but the basic premise of - popularity contest in order to make the top 5 followed by a jury weighted superfinal at the business end remains.
I didn’t come into this preview with a particularly strong view and in the process of drafting this it’s become even harder, with some of the songwriter news filtering through levelling an already pretty equal playing field.
Anyway, onto the lineup:
Giorgia
As noted in the 2023 sanremo preview which saw her last participation, Giorgia has a really strong record in Sanremo going back further than any other (serious) challenger. The difference this time around to her eventual 6th place that year is that here seems to be further belief in the song. No artist is going to talk down their entry at this stage but I do get the sense Giorgia is earnest in describing her entry as “made for Sanremo”. Michelangelo and Blanco are reportedly the “big names” behind here entry (as well as those of Irama and Noemi). Given her status and the various murmurings, I’m expecting Giorgia to be near or at the top of most reviewer’s scorecards. Noteworthy is that 2025 marks 30 years since her first (and only) victory…
Olly
Being a foreign observer of Sanremo and the primary focus of this site being Eurovision based, I came to Olly with less knowledge and prejudice vs all other frontrunners who I'm far more familiar with. My initial thoughts were however that there is a big opening for a 'newcomer' in his demographic to come through. Does this hold up with some actual research into him? Not hugely… Firstly his 2023 entry clearly left no impression on me seeing as I’d totally forgot it and looking through some of his other material and metrics I don’t see much justification in the odds. However Olly is an act on the up and there may be a record label push to make that happen this year, it looks likely he will have a strong song here and potentially those more in the know have been driving his price. Personally, I’m cautious in dismissing given certain shared hallmarks here with Angelina Mango at this stage last year- an act with whom he has recently dueted…
Elodie
Elodie's reputation at Sanremo, particularly to an international viewer is that of a fan favourite who has been often hard done by, similar in a way to Annalisa last year. Whilst I’m also a fan and see her as one of the better artists here full stop, viewing the situation objectively 'Tutta Colpa Mia' (8th '17)and 'Due' (9th 2023) didn't really deserve a whole lot more, whilst ‘Andromeda’ (7th 2020) also never threatened a podium despite being in one of the weaker overall years in my opinion. The missing piece for Elodie to challenge has been the song, with her and her performances often faultless. Positively, the Petrella/Simonetta pairing is a bit of a change on her last few efforts and may stand out more in the admittedly Federica Abbate saturated field. This development makes me a bit keener on her overall chances.
Achille Lauro
Good ol' Achille has not let his NQ for San Marino in '22 get him down and is back for another bite at San Remo and potentially Eurovision. Recently Lauro has been enjoying a strong stint on Italy's X-Factor, taking 3 acts to the final. Personally, I've never really seen the "artistry" his biggest admirers have and instead view his antics as window dressing over unspectacular pieces of music. I'm not as bullish against him as in previous years and there's potential hype by some sections of the media (a song title translated as "reckless youths" could play into that) but he's not someone I'm looking to consider only just in double figures at this stage based on his back catalogue.
Rocco Hunt
If views and chart statistics count for anything, Rocco Hunt is arguably the frontrunner for the year with a number of big hits in the past years and a very solid past decade in general from what I can find. The spanner in the works is that whether rapping or on prod duties most of Rocco's work is not particularly jury friendly. A likely outcome is a fate similar to that of Geolier last year, but less extreme. Oddsetters seem similarly cautious over Southern support with this backed up by a first/second evening public lead on his only other appearance in 2016. I don't quite think Rocco is likely enough to bring something of the “seriousness” of a ‘Soldi’ or ‘Cenere’ to get the juries onside overall but a top 5 is possible.
Irama
I'm getting tired of writing previews on this guy but you can't knock his track record and consistent level of quality. Saying that, I do believe he was fortunate to reach the top 5 last year and the juries agreed. Perhaps the most secure in reaching that position again given that past and dedicated fan base but simultaneously difficult to see the press let him win, similar to the situation with Rocco. Not written off entirely and more capable of turning up with something that cannot be ignored - worth backing only if the reviews start coming in strongly.
Francesco Gabbani
Gabbani has one of the strongest pedigrees at Sanremo with of course his 2017 victory, as well as 2020 silver and a newcomers win too. Those only familiar with ‘Occidentali's Karma’ will be disappointed diving into his back catalogue and the past few years have been a bit lean, with apparent rejections from returning under Amadeus. Whilst there are artists with longer records, Gabbani’s effective form of 1-1-2 is unmatched and he is impossible to dismiss as something of a proven sanremo specialist whose best work has come here. Can he pull something out of the bag yet again? Additional case as a consensus winner with both juries and public potential fairly equal.
Noemi
A song apparently written by Mahmood, Blanco and Michelangelo rythmically titled 'Se Ti Innamori, Muori' is an interesting proposition but then I remember the middling results Noemi has been acheiving under similar circumstances in her two most recent attempts, finishing in the middle of the pack. I have been banging on alot about songwriters here and whilst these are promising names, I do suspect Noemi is not getting their best work and is just happy to participate. Unappealing at odds in the teens.
Francesca Michielin
Two time runner up Francesca is back and at odds in the 20s could be considered back-able. The two main concerns are how does she make enough headway on the televote and how badly will a rumoured strong Georgia affect her with both likely in the ballad avenue. Capable if at her best but danger this is not a serious attempt at victory from the start.
Her 2021 partner and frequent collaborator Fedez is also back and available at similar odds having lost some relevancy whilst jurors are likely going to prove an issue.
Elsewhere at long odds Clara, Rose Villain and The Kolors all make immediate returns after impressing last time out but it's hard to make a case for any to come through and reach the top 5. Notably however Clara’s song has Madame and Dardust credited who are arguably the names to have onside here along with the prolific Federica Abbate. I can’t officially have her in the top 5 just from that given I feel she underperformed last year and lacks the status and popularity of the other contenders but at 20+ is worth an outside bet.
Coma-Cose have always brought a touch of quality but likewise lack the voting power needed whilst Rkomi is an act I also like but also lacks the voter base or USP, particulalry with Irama and Olly here, and his career hasn’t yet kicked on in a big way since his previous visit. Gaia is a strong performer but it’s hard to see her being a threat for the top 5. Tony Effe is the “controversial” inclusion of the year and has precisely 0% chance at winning leaving Simone Cristicchi as the last name under 30-1 so I may as well mention him even if the public vote will be non existent. At the very bottom of the odds Massimo Ranieri is a notable legacy act who will likely overperform his position in the odds whilst massive underdog Willie Peyote was very competitive (6th) on his last visit in 2021.
Top 5 Prediction
No Idea.
Ok at a push: Giorgia, Irama and Gabbani are all tipped to make it in based on their past, as is Olly based on a seemingly likely push. I don’t make any of these “certain” but I am relatively settled on them for the time being. That leaves one spot for me to allocate - where Rocco Hunt may edge it for now, who I narrowly have in above Elodie at this stage. It’s a pretty similar top 5 to what the odds have with her and Achille the bookmaker tips missing the cut provisionally. Should that materialise I’d then expect:
Giorgia
Francesco Gabbani
OLLY
Irama
Rocco Hunt
Giorgia may be worth a bet as the field could fall well for her but it’s quite marginal with current information and odds. I really don’t recommend heavy involvement this year until we learn more, unless taking a punt on someone more speculative such as Clara, or according to some bookmakers- Gabbani…