Melodifestivalen 2023 Preview

One mini trend from Melodifestivalen the past couple of years has been the emergence of outsiders and new faces in the top spots.  Tusse (2021 winner) and Anders Bagge (2022 runner up) were both widely known within Sweden but still on Melodifestivalen debut whilst Cornelia Jakobs ('22 winner) presented a kind of re-invention of herself as an artist. Despite many familiar faces again in this year's edition, the contest has thankfully so far not devolved completely into a returning pretty boy vs a Mama/Lundvik (cue a Theoz vs Loulou Lamotte showdown...)

Much like with us international viewers, there's a sense that these familiar faces are a bit stale competitively and Sweden more open to something ever but ever so slightly alternative meaning we may need to cast our net a little further in search of a winner than we are used to. So without further ado, let's go through the contenders in rough order of current odds...

Loreen
It's perhaps due to the above points that the return of Loreen has gone a little under the radar even but there is also the caveat this is not her first return with her much more anticipated 2017 attempt failing pretty spectacularly. Opening approximately 3x a higher price was however an overreaction and this has since been pushed in to the more reasonable 3.5-4 range. The thing with Loreen is that 'Statements', whilst not even making the final, was probably ahead of its time and the right kind of failure: a risk taking one. Rather than a lazy effort we saw from Bengtson and Lundvik last year, Loreen is a former winner much more likely to push the boat out which is a positive in my eyes- more variance but a higher chance of gold.

Can Loreen deliver more iconic moments?

Maria Sur
For fans of a narrative and Ukraine's chances at Eurovision proper, Maria Sur enters the picture as the Ukrainian representative and offers similarities to Tusse in having a back story and fame through other TV events. The Swedish public do like a good story and we can expect a song with the title 'Never Give Up' to be quite on the nose and play into this. As a young girl, Maria also ticks the demographics box pretty well and there's no reason I've found whatever package is put together won't appeal to juries either. A threat.

Fairytale or false-favourite?

John Henrik Fjallgren and Arc North ft. Adam Woods
A familiar and consistent face is back and has brought some mates along for the ride. How likely these lads end up to challengers will come down to the juries and whether this is another repeat of John's three previous efforts. Rightly or wrongly, 'just' a joik, schlager sound and key change is unlikely to please them at all but the collaboration and use of an English title might promise this to be a necessary compromise. Concerningly, despite being enviable, Fjalgren's finishing positions have been on a direct slope downwards whilst Nordman have the potential to be a vote stealer in a usually clear genre.

More of the same?

Kiana
One of the lesser known names to international viewers, Kiana is suspected to have been given one of the better songs. That and her silver medal in Sweden's Got Talent has odds makers being very cautious. Competing in the same demographic as Maria Sur there's a lot here on paper but to my mind this may be more of an entry to establish her for a tilt in a few years.

Marcus and Martinus
It's took 5 entries to get to our first in the classic melodifestivalen category of 'pretty boy' so to make up for that we have the double team of Marcus and Martinus. Like Maria Sur, they are of course non-Swedish which may prove to be a handicap rather than advantage for them. Despite their level of fame, we're likely to see a quick levelling off after the younger demographics in the televoting. A solid song can be expected but again I question if this is a real push for victory.

Girl vote secured but what can they add to that?

Victor Crone/Mariette/Wiktoria
I've grouped these three together because there's much the same to say on all of them-reliable returning acts but with no real reason to believe this is their year. The Wiktoria momentum of 5 years ago has dried up, Marriete isn't expected to up her game to a big enough margin and Victor Crone and his songwriting team screams 9th in the final.

Outsiders
Nordman, Tone Sekelius, Smash Into Pieces and Axel Schylstrom are the names with most potential to outperform their odds but all seem limited in terms of a title push either through demographics, the jury or both. Melanie Wehbe sits at a relatively short price in my opinion behind the more obvious picks and whilst I think this a mistake, I'll be interested to see if there's anything there. Theoz is the other act given a half realistic chance but it's much more likely he repeats last year's result.

Nordman- They look a bit like Anders Bagge, they’ll be hoping to score like him too.

Prediction:
I've had far less success giving these top 3s than for the upcoming San Remo preview but my pre song thoughts are:
1. Maria Sur
2. Loreen
3. John Henrik Fjalgren and Co.

My going for a narrative victory is in direct contradiction to my opinion on Ukraine's Eurovision chances so may be a bit of a surprise but the playing field and environment feels totally different here. For one, Maria feels likely to have something equally appealing to the crucial international juries and two, is probably going to have a sound and feel that stands out well. There's an unbelievably narrow band of songwriters even for Melfest meaning that shockingly a Laurell Barker effort may stand out amongst the Debs/G:son/Joker/Jansen crowd. Expect something more emotional in a sea of lasers, fireworks and blue and pink strobe lighting. Maybe.

Finally, it would also be typical of the last few years of betting on Eurovision for a more typical Ukrainian narrative to fly under the Swedish flag and further confuse the whole thing giving us more wormholes to get sucked into. Call it an "escbettings razor"; the solution that complicates everything the most is the most likely.

For betting with Melodifestivalen the last few years I've found it better to wait for the songs and stats than attempting to call it blind. Although I've stuck down some money on my top 2, my main approach on the outright will be a mathematical one much closer to the time.

To focus on Eurovision once more, Sweden are probably going to stick around the top 5 or head to favourites should either of my predicted winners come through- if only through Ukraine nerves should it be Maria or name power if it's Loreen. 7s-8s is short but in backing Sweden you probably have some outside hopes at worst heading into rehearsals.