Eurovision 2024 Season Review
Well Switzerland got the W and congrats to Nemo in exceeding both my jury expectations and televote. Never really something I believed in and this could have been an ugly evening. Thankfully a combination of plenty of wiggle room and this being around break even rather than a big red or anything I was able to even things out live. Not my strongest showing on the outright in failing to call the winner but you're not going to land it every year and I don't really have any regrets. Perhaps with hindsight a huge Swiss jury score could have been predicted but even live I was still mainly expecting Croatia to overturn that deficit.
As for Croatia, their second place is less about them not winning or me being wrong on them, but more Switzerland's overacheivement. I think my maths and assumptions on them were pretty sound all season. It's similar for Ukraine in third as the other country I'd been particularly keen on consistently. I think their tally from second demonstrates how this could have won had things panned out differently with them still reaching that 450+ mark a lot of us believed would be enough a few months ago. The many of us preaching the E/W all season were proved correct and this was an important position to land for me.
I don't have a lot to say on France, was never a huge believer but not surprised either with the 4th place, and obviously not since Eurojury and rehearsals. Financially, it's a shame Israel couldn't make the places but I was on the right end of the market move which really firmed up my book. It's hard to say if the panic or dare I say clarity of thought that they had a chance would have arrived without the Rai leak. The semi Win was very pleasing with this backed between 13s and 20s throughout the season.
Ireland is an interesting one and obviously exceeded expectations but to no real cost. An opportunity for a trade or a nice top 10 was lost but again, you're not going to get them all and at the end of the day I made more elsewhere and was never sucked into this challenging for a place or the win. If you backed at 75s+ or for top 10, great job, if you began at 20s hoping for single figures that is something to look at. It's funny really that the two times this didn't shorten all year were just after the performances live. Not solely bubble hype as this did very well, but a distance from competing. Like Switzerland, I feel this really maxed out the potential.
Part of being in a great position come finals night was also in dodging some of the landmines this year of which Italy ended up being one. It's amazing to think now Belgium reached 13s and that was also dodged. Netherlands' hype is perhaps the one on which I was slightly conned but with a better staging and actual participation Joost would have likely placed.
I'm happy for Armenia in securing an 8th place and personally for booting Switzerland out of the semi top 3. I toyed with opposing for the top 10 early but by rehearsals was very neutral on them.
Tusse aside, my record at predicting Sweden is pretty spot on and indeed they secured top Nordic at an absolute canter and a solid top 10. It's a shame Greece couldn't also make it but Portugal being the country to sneak in 10th instead more than makes up for that. I was just 1 point of in my prediction here but thankfully that tally was enough.
Elsewhere Georgia greatly underperformed my post rehearsals expectations (particularly with the juries) and I felt Finland would get a higher televote but I'm satisfied with the rest of my predictions overall. Recognising an entry I'd been keen on in the semi in Norway (and have as a personal favourite) had flopped is something I'm very happy with in being able to adjust my opinion. Backing Gåte for last place at up to 80-1 is the highlight of the season and my book for last place was pretty excellent.
The qualification markets is an area I didn't too great with and am slightly down on with Poland, San Marino and Albania not making it whilst Latvia did (had them combined with the other "Certain" outs). Australia the only significant position I let stand where the outcome went in my favour but some trades also made money (Portugal, Belgium, Austria). This market feels like it's becoming harder despite only having the televote to judge and I can't be alone in saying that given the size of the odds upsets this year.
Overall, this year was another great one for returns and despite missing the winner I exceeded my own target, which I will take considering how wild this was looking before rehearsals. I’d give myself an 8/10 with those qualifier picks also holding me back a touch
Wider Thoughts
Away from betting, the fact we avoided the worst case scenario of a political win is a positive but we shouldn't let this overshadow the many issues with the contest this year. Once again we have a country not winning the televote taking the victory which was the favourite of just 1 of the 37 voting blocks. Whilst two countries higher with the public are partly (Ukraine) and almost entirely (Israel) politically based, the same can't be said for France or Croatia. The contest stops being relevant if the public favourites stop winning, and I'd argue that is three years in a row where we've had dubious outcomes (yes Kalush included when the juries *didn't* do their jobs) that the public/ or fans could be unsatisfied with. There's a reason we are bringing back Chanel and Sam Ryder, why Sweden felt the need to invite Kaarijaa to the semi final and once again next year far more casuals will evidently be hoping Baby Lasagna makes an appearance than looking forward to a Nemo interval.
The jury landslide coronations are getting out of hand and equally not a good look for the contest. I posted much the same about increasing jury sizes and diversifying them last year as have others but this continues to be ignored. I am starting to come around to Norway being on the right lines and we need a higher televote split otherwise we can just go all in on the next western country to bring a fancy prop with a good song. Ukraine's huge inbuilt advantage is a current issue to that but we shouldn't also be unfairly dumping one of the best songs in 2nd. Since producers have given themselves such power, they must now be held to account also. 'Necessary Evil' or not, that should cost Bjorkman any involvement in running orders for any future contest and ideally the whole 'producers choice' will now go straight into the bin although these moves to a more tailored contest have only tended to go in one direction.
To continue being a negative Nancy, I'm never the most keen on Sweden's stagings, but that Grand Final had undoubtedly the worst interval and filler of the last 20 years (along with the most non descript postcards) with an ode to Osterdahl, Alcazar, Charlotte Perrelli (again), Conchita (again), Loreen sat in a chair for 5 minutes and that ABBA 'appearence'.
Switzerland, I beg of you not to try to make your hosting about Celine Dion in a similar way if the best you'll get is also a 1 minute VT. On the positives, it was a great stage this year and I appreciate increased security likely swallowed a big chunk of the budget.
As for Israel, I was neutral on their participation and feel such a large vote won't be sustained in the coming years (without some merit) or without further political developments. This was more of a one-and-done show of support I believe than the factors elevating Ukraine. That said, serious questions need to asked about KAN's conduct throughout this season and their jury points to Luxembourg, whilst 100% expected, is grounds enough for some reprimand.
Joost Klein's disqualification is another element overshadowing the year. I can see why this was done with a case and legal proceedings hanging over him, but from all sides of the story my take would be "He was a bit of a dick, there should be some fine etc, he should not have missed the opportunity of a lifetime to perform in the grand final and his absence benefitted absolutely no-one".
I believe Martin Osterdahl has faced a really hard set of circumstances and won't particularly go in too hard on him for the Israeli and Dutch situations, but faith has been lost here by broadcasters and fans and the contest thrust into the spotlight for the wrong reasons. Right decisions or not, I don't believe he should survive this year and a clean start is needed.
You can't really hold Switzerland being an expensive ass country against them winning but reality exists and 2025 could be an awkward year as I’d wager we get no returns now and potentially further withdrawals looking likely. Australia and San Marino both look precarious, Azerbaijan have money but do they care anymore? Israel will potentially be pushed out, and are the Dutch going to be in uproar still? There’s probably another few looking at next year with some financial concerns (Cyprus? Moldova?) but hopefully as many broadcasters as possible can find a way to avoid the genuine danger of 13/14 country semi finals next year.
The sense of community within the fandom has also already been on the decline with the increase in rehearsal and press centre restrictions and I do wonder how many will bother turning up next year. None of this is SRF's fault but we have to acknowledge next year may be another awkward one that won’t be able to repair some of the damage done by this. This is the one prediction made this year that I actively hope to be wrong on.
With all that negativity, I should stress I do genuinely love this contest and my critic comes from that feeling. Eurovision is a winning formula that has stood the test of time but we are changing what does not need to, whilst ignoring the actual issues.
Anyway, I'll be back before the month is out for the escbetting awards and from then it will likely be hibernation until at least September.