Eurovision 2024: Semi Final Two Preview
This is a tough semi final and I’ve had a particularly hard time in seperating the entries from 2nd-5th and from 10th-12th. Interestingly, the market is far more sure on the 10 Qualifiers tonight with anyone 11th or lower being a bigger surprise in the odds than Slovenia was in semi . I don't think it is quite as clear or as comfortable as that.
Starting off, I think there are no bad entries in here and whilst personally this semi final doesn't hit the heights of the first - a relief for Hera Bjork no doubt- the level of consistency is impressive.
Malta suffer from a veneer of fakeness and this really does struggle to shake off the ‘Slo-Mo’ comparisons. I don't remember the last time I had such an overt copycat impression. A particular gripe is the “phew” and “oof” noises on the backing track during the dance break - breaking any remaining illusion over the live vocal and adding to the style over substance theme. There is some good choreography, and the staging isn't bad overall - this is a fine show opener, but this has tanked near the bottom of every metric. It’s a bit of a shame, but something is just off here. Whilst I’m not a fan of something so blatantly and soullessly following a formula either, this one looks to be very harshly punished, particularly with no real friends or voting power.
Czechia are an odd one in that fans relatively like this, Eurojury really liked it, it won its national final convincingly (perhaps inflated) and it’s staged fairly effectively but betting markets in general have remained very unconvinced. I have issues with Aiko's voteability and still struggle to see any call to vote, or reason why this would be someone's highlight of the evening. Like Malta, Czechia also don't have much in the bank to start with. This isn't entirely hopeless, and Lea Sirk from Slovenia 2018 might be the glimmer of hope, but I do struggle to see it personally.
Dons from Latvia is an absolute legend; a really charismatic guy and one of the best sports of the year. Unfortunately, ‘Hollow’ doesn't really show much of this side at all and whilst one can succeed with an earnest ballad, this is a dangerously unremarkable package and is in my opinion buried in the draw. Similar applies to Denmark who are actually staged fairly nicely. SABA does struggle to bring elevate this however. I don't see either of these middle of the road entries picking up enough traction and have them very likely NQs.
If I have to simplify the Q battle as I see it, 1 from the following 3 should sneak into 10th…
When laying Austria for top 10 a few months ago I wasn't anticipating that might settle on the Thursday night but there is a genuine chance that could happen now. Kaleen bless her has looked a little vulnerable all season but what might push her over the edge is the emergence of Georgia with a far superior staging and performance drawn later. ‘We Will Rave’ is a fun song but does drag a little live for an audience at home and fan metrics have consistently overvalued this.
The annual Albania diaspora calculator is brought up but we are rightly less sure than usual on the appeal of this. According to the market and the odds drift all season, Albania have badly misjudged this in going for the English language revamp and now a generic pop staging. This is a favourable semi final still so it can't be ruled out but there could be a lack of enthusiasm to really push this one. Reading into semi one saw Poland fall who had on paper even more historical points. We also did see Balkan rival Serbia qualify from 2nd and whilst I personally like that and the final would miss it, I have little doubt that was mainly down to friendly votes. Maybe if anything this comparison strengthens the ‘this lacks cultural relevance angle’. I’m not predicting Besa to qualify but 4s+ is value.
I have been keener than most on San Marino and continue to be so here. I’m expecting big points from Spain and something sizeable from the rest of the world vote (many Spanish speaking countries), if Italy can lend a few to their minnow enclave that's about 20 I have them at to start with, making occasional 2s and 3s enough to get through. That isn't to be taken for granted but maybe audiences are down for something more characterful. The aggressive witches and non-english songs did pretty well in semi one after all and this is one of the more eye catching performances. I will be bold and place them in for potential bragging rights but this looks super marginal and tight.
Belgium should just have done enough to make the final and go and do quite well thanks to juries but Mustii can't breath a sigh of relief just yet. Imperfect performance aside, this is still a strong song and should canibalise the ‘sensible’ votes which do still exist in these semis. It’s not a bad set of countries for them either with Netherlands the highlight. Likely safe now.
Estonia likewise may just have pulled together enough of a performance to move off the borderline and into more secure territory. Fun song, good party vibes, decent usp.
Georgia as mentioned have brought a great staging and Nutsa gives one of the best performances of the night. Georgia's track record is much known and often lamented in Eurovision circles which may be the only lingering doubt but this is one of the better draws possible for them with Armenia, Greece and Israel likely to enjoy this.
Into as good as through territory and Armenia is a fun and characterful song that works well in a live setting. The biggest reason this was tipped to do well is on a Moldova ‘22 angle but a.) there hasn't been that sort of reception on the ground by a long way and b.) sometimes something just works in a moment in time or catches that lightning in a bottle for whatever reason. These things don't always make sense and are not always replicable. I have Armenia doing well here and in the final, just not remarkably so in any way, an opinion which seems to be the consensus now.
Greece and Armenia also pose a problem in potentially splitting the vote. Much like Marina and Jacklin have been sharing the love this week, I expect the two to exchange 12pts here but there could be a vote dilution elsewhere. ‘Zari’ is better in the full three minutes than the snippet shared but this may just be on too early in the running and prove too acquired in a lot of the voting countries. Possible top 3 but needs underperformances.
Fun fact: beyond unfancied Latvia and Czechia, Norway is the only entry to have successfully passed a televote test in competition, and a fairly stern one in overcoming KEiiNO in mgp. I’ve remained keen on this in the semi final context and do think there's a good chance Norway exceeds expectations here, bringing a different energy to the rest of the field. The penultimate slot is great for them too and Norway have been pretty strong on the televote over the past years. It’s not the best set of countries for them as a negative - Estonia and Denmark are from the same pot but often have milder tastes and as a disclaimer this is one of my favourite entries of the year. I was ready to place this in the top 3 full stop rather than just declare it value for that although the arena poll has gave me pause for thought.
Conversely, Switzerland is something I was quite confident against until last night's arena poll and I am still wrestling with the relevance of it. Firstly, we are only in the second year of having this data and it’s still early in assessing the accuracy. Switzerland skews fan I would argue and we saw flamboyant Belgium in semi 2 last year with a similar 25% people’s favourite score only finish in 8th. There are reasons why this too would not go down as well with casuals or be to the tastes of the under-represented Eastern countries. On the other hand, I can't speak of being in the arena but this is very likely more effective down the camera and that this overachieved my poll expectations concerns me my read is off. I've shuffled Nemo up a spot overall to here.
Israel is hard to quantify and isn't coming into this semi final with the narrative it could have at the time of writing. The crowd have been doing their best to raise support and sympathy for Eden by loud booing in the arena but SVT seem well prepared and this doesn't come across as clear to audiences at home. It’s hard to seperate song merit from circumstance but in more normal times I’d have this as a comfortable Q in 5th or so and there is a natural gap for this. Given that, a three place jump in a semi that looks pretty inconclusive is reasonable.
For first place I am returning to convention in predicting The Netherlands. It’s a fitting pimp slot song and has shown the most flashes of televote appeal overall, even if Joost has failed to meet what became sky high expectations around the staging. Regardless, most of the issues I have with the choices made are irrelevant in a televote only semi and all things considered this looks pretty clear at the top.
Prediction
Netherlands (162)(70% Win,100%Q)
Israel (134) (12% Win, 99% Q)
Switzerland (128) (12% Win, 99% Q)
Norway (124) (3% Win, 99% Q)
Greece (122) (2% Win, 99% Q)
Armenia (107) (1% Win, 99% Q)
Georgia (78) (85% Q)
Estonia (62) (75% Q)
Belgium (60) (75% Q)
San Marino (42) (40% Q)
Austria (40) (40% Q)
Albania (39) (40% Q)
Denmark (22) (12% Q)
Latvia (20) (12% Q)
Czechia (13) (8% Q)
Malta (7) (3% Q)
My position
The winning market for me is pretty much “anyone but Nemo”. The Netherlands are the likeliest winner by a big margin and I backed from 1.8+ and have revisited a little recently as this has drifted in the overall outright. Israel in particular plus Norway and Greece are covered at long speculative prices.
It’s similar in the top 3 market where I was actively laying Switzerland (around 1.5) whilst backing Israel (2.3s). Norway is again my biggest play here with average odds around 5s. Promising poll for Switzerland or not, I believe these positions are still value but we will see…
In the qualify market Albania and San Marino are value plays both at 4+ and I’m optimistic one might sneak in, likely at the expense of Austria now. I’ve preferred backing that pair rather than actively targeting Kaleen however. A Denmark NQ is my main hope here overall with me being against this heavily from the start. One can relatively comfortably oppose all of Denmark, Latvia, Czechia and Malta at odds of 2.5+.
Finally, I’m sat on a heap of Estonia last place in the final so will be hoping that remains alive. San Marino and Austria have also been backed for that.