SanRemo 2024: Updated Preview
With less than one week to go before Sanremo begins let's fly back the names and see what's changed since my first prediction.
Geolier - There's been a big drift in the odds here from lows around 3 to now 10+ so this was well dodged. Press previews seem to confirm this is no 'Cenere' which was the main concern and danger and will be closer to his typical style. An issue which I didn't mention in the preview was the Neapolitan language being used. Although that was in the back of my mind it appears a much more significant stumbling block amongst some quarters of what will be the juries who were already liable to hold this back. Good niche and popularity can probably see him into the top 5 still.
Allesandra Amorroso - A bit of a meh response overall and the necessary hype train and interest in her debut has already started to wane. Being squeezed by Annalisa and Angelina Mango as the current acts and Loredana Berte as the legacy act is a poor position to be in. It's not too dissimilar for Negramaro who could have done with stronger jury indicators, particularly if the more mature demographics are strongly represented.
Annalisa - The blind tip has moved into position as favourite with her doing enough in the press previews and seeing those early rivals lose pace. Satisfied with the position here although less so with La Rappresentante Di Lista being the covers night duet. They're a group I've opposed as entrants in the past given they just don't carry enough name recognition in Italy and play into international tastes more. With them, Annalisa is really tripling down on the 'Belisima' retro disco approach.
Angelina Mango - I'm not particularly surprised the previews were keen here with a strong songwriting team and she's playing the game well in trading off the Mango name. Out of all the outcomes, the 'pop girl wins on debut' is the least SanRemo-esque and I go back to Madame making a strong start in both appearances before falling away by finals night. That's still my expectation here.
Il Volo - Press previews were not expected to be their strong point but that's quite the mauling. Opinion unchanged, top 5 likely, the win is difficult.
Mahmood - Lingering around and playing the game expertly. I'm a little more cautious on him and a sort of almost accidental/consensus victory is possible. It’s not a hard ask for him to make the top 5 and from there he could fall over the line if the lineup fell favourably.
Irama - Completely dead and looks unlikely to make the top 10.
Emma - Respectable previews and competitive artist. Unfortunate year for her with just no narrative compared to the other female runners. Opinion unchanged.
Diodato - Could have benefited from slightly stronger previews given the juries are expected to carry much of the weight here but pretty much unchanged. Strong top 5 contender.
From those given honourable mentions The Kolors have risen in the betting a fair amount. I could see some early hype and provide a sweat to anyone who has them red, I’m just not sure what superfinal field they win overall in, should they get that far. The press previews confirmed Renga and Nek of course do have a phoned in song, or barely a texted in song it seems. Needless to say, I cashed out those outsider pennies instantly and can only apologise.
I can only apologise also for not even giving a mention to Loredana Berte who has stormed up the odds after receiving the most flattering press previews. Now, she's a different beast to Fiorella Manoiia for example but I was assuming she'd similarly turn up, come 12th and everyone's happy. I don't doubt that the press are being too respectful shall we say and the chances of her actually having the best song in this field are slim but the ball has already been kickstarted in what makes for a nice narrative. SanRemo shouldn't be thought of like the other Eurovision national finals going big and/or for oldchool names and Italy is much less inclined to follow these trends but if you want to draw those parallels, she's the act. The counterpoint is that we saw all this before in 2019 with the press crowning her the winner only for her to miss the run off and finish in 4th. In fact, Press winners have had a very poor time of it in recent years:
2020: Rancore (#10)
2021: Willy Peyote (#6)
2022: La Rappresentante di Lista (#7)
Mengoni broke that streak emphatically last year but that was an unusually dominant victory and this year appears much less certain. The key is to be somewhere in and around the top of the rankings, with coming first not really a decisive factor given how arbitrary they can be. Given all that I am sceptical but available 9s is a good price, either to take for the first time or to add to any grabbed during the shortening. Since Dargen D'amico is also under 20s now in places he can have his mention too and that was it. He won't be close to winning.
Prediction
Annalisa remains the call to win whilst Geolier and Il Volo are still tipped to make the top 5 and then be stopped, making anyone else who can get in there a contender for victory. Berte shuffles in for Renga/Nek whilst Mahmood is pushing Diodato hard in this battle of recent winners for a spot in my prediction but I'll keep the faith for now.
1. Annalisa
2. Loredana Berte
3. Diodato
4. Geolier
5. Il Volo
The way odds are shaping up my main battle will seemingly be against Angelina Mango who is still not recommended, neither at the limited 7s+ on the exchange and certainly not at the lows of 3.75 at sportsbooks. I may have to endure a few days of hype but I’m not convinced she’ll factor when push comes to shove on finals night.