Semi Final 1: Pre Rehearsals Preview

We’ve had plenty of time to digest the full set of entries for this year’s contest as well as get a closer look at many in the last few weeks across live performances so let’s take a look at our first semi final and see how I’m currently expecting it to pan out, starting at the bottom and working our way up…

Iceland's hopes of qualifying are almost non-existent. There's a bit of an argument that 'Scared of Heights' is being overlooked due to its selection and casuals may appreciate a normal, catchy enough song more - indeed this hasn't received a 'one of the worst songs in the contest' reaction to outsiders I have also put this to. Even if this is a 6/10 effort and not a 3/10 however, the call to vote is incredibly weak and there is almost no staging potential. Seriously, what can you do with this and Hera? Iceland are also very short of base points and have been essentially shunted into the first half tasked with following semi favourites Croatia. Not a guaranteed last placer, and I could even make a case for 12th perhaps if we get an odd points distribution - but this isn't qualifying.

Azerbaijan follow in my prediction and whilst I do like this entry and there is staging potential, their recent non existent televoting power has not gone unnoticed. The ethnic trimmings aid this but Azerbaijan have never really managed to pick up the Turkish diaspora as might have been expected and what this may be attempting. Instead, they are isolated and quite friendless with their recent apathy towards the contest reciprocated by the public. Fahree doesn't convince hugely either so it could be another difficult year.

Moldova feature a spot higher than I was planning to have them and that is mainly due to their good staging record and general over achievements. They have shown up looking just as weak at times but typically at least give qualification layers a mini scare. Like the Azerbaijan-Turkey dynamic, I also don't believe there'll be any notable Romanian proxy support here: they finished last in their semi televote in the Romania-less 2016 and last year saw little boost either despite Theodor Andrei being completely ignored. Like Iceland, this one ranges from 12-15 with little chance at actually getting the points needed and being squeezed between Finland and hosts Sweden is as bad as gets in terms of memory holing.

Things begin to get more interesting with Australia who (shock horror) have received a much better draw. 'One Milkali' is a decent song with some cool vibes. There is a heap of staging potential here but Australia do need to go big. If that 'music video' saved SBS enough pennies to put on a good showing in Malmo I will forgive them for haunting my dreams. Red flags are found again in the optics and relevance of this, coupled with the Australia tag. I genuinely don't know if Europe votes for this being an authentic, uplifting, Eurovision-esque display of some Australian culture or if this goes down like a lead balloon. Both outcomes are possible and understandable. Borderline. Ireland are taking a big risk this year which opens up a wide range for them here - perhaps anywhere from 6th-13th. For now, I have this engaged in a "witch one will qualify" battle with Slovenia. Ireland has the superior call to vote and usp, Slovenia the later draw and the better fan reception - for the little relevance that might hold with Raiven's aesthetic and NF trier past leading to some serious over inflation. There is a similar amount of base points and staging potential for both (moreso for Bambie) but both delegations are generally poorly funded and have weak records. Surely room for a max of 1 to qualify and I can’t seperate this trio on the borderline.

Into 9th and the entries I'm fairly happy will qualify. Portugal will almost surely be getting 12 points from Luxembourg and their penultimate draw is also a big help. I do have faith in the delegation and Iolanda with Portugal quietly becoming very good at providing some quality. Luxembourg have the semi final lineup from hell (no Belgium or Netherlands, no Francophone France and Switzerland and no artist's root's Israel). Germany and Portugal should provide some points but we don't have much to work from and I'm assuming the majority of other country's televotes don't care about the welcome back angle much. The pimp slot which was incoming from the day of the semi allocation draw is very much needed.

Serbia's draw in second is a harsh one and it's a shame SVT have took the 'dump the ballad there' approach - 'Ramonda' deserves better than that. I do imagine the diaspora will be somewhat riled up to get this through whilst Croatia and Slovenia offer some good starting points in theory. That diaspora and bloc could be ate into by Baby Lasagna however and Teya was not the Serbian public’s choice by a fair margin. Casual votes from 2nd are very dubious even if the reception has been pretty good most places but I think there are just enough in the bank to put this into the final.

Cyprus is an entry I have warmed to a little and I think it fulfils its role well as the show opener with Silia one of the most naturally charismatic artists here. Some generous points from Australia and consistent scoring elsewhere should see this through without issue.

It's only now we are entering real secure territory however with Poland who are through if not 90% there on diaspora alone with a dream semi final field. I'm not a fan of the song much or Luna's aesthetic from a votability angle and being placed between Ukraine and Croatia is hurtful but they should find the extra 20-30 points needed to end very comfortably here.

It's a close toss up between Lithuania and Finland who will surely battle for that last top 3 position. 'Luktelk' is a bit hamstrung by performing in 3rd whereas Windows95man gets to dominate his mini section. Like for Poland, Lithuania have a lot of points in the bank already however. Overall, I think the draw has determined this battle with Finland stealing the show in the second half. It's always difficult to nail down a novelty entry entirely but I think there's enough appeal here and potential for Finland to overshoot expectations more than fall below.

Ukraine then take the silver medal and again it's a fantastic semi lineup for them - although any lineup is liable to be honestly. 5th after the UK and before Poland is a good enough slot and there’s not a huge amount to say. Jerry has been putting in more assured displays recently and we’re to expect a strong staging.

Croatia should be able to top this semi final with two key balkans for support and a draw that has been set up for them to do so. Ukraine may have more absolute points in the bank but the casual support should be for Baby. As a fan of both in the overall outright, I think the odds are fairly accurate here between the two and don't recommend much involvement on the semi winner - particularly remembering the outcome will be pending until after the final.

Current Prediction

1. Croatia 184 (Win 65%, Qualify 100%)

2. Ukraine 170 (Win 27%, Qualify 100%)

3. Finland 130 (Win 7%, Qualify 99%)

4. Lithuania 121 (Win 0%, Qualify 100%)

5. Poland 75 (Win 0%, Qualify 95%)

6. Cyprus 70 (Win 0%, Qualify 85%)

7. Serbia 66 (Win 0%, Qualify 75%)

8. Luxembourg 62 (Win 0%, Qualify 65%)

9. Portugal 59 (Win 0%, Qualify 60%)

10. Ireland 47 (Win 1%, Qualify 45%)

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11. Australia 46 (Win 0%, Qualify 45%)

12. Slovenia 45 (Win 0%, Qualify 45%)

13. Moldova 15 (Win 0%, Qualify 10%)

14. Azerbaijan 9 (Win 0%, Qualify 20%)

15. Iceland 6 (Win 0%, Qualify 5%)

This does give me the first 7 competing entries qualifying (The UK would not fwiw) and I do think qualification is mainly a three way battle for that last spot between Ireland, Australia and Slovenia. At 1.5 now, Bambie may be worth a lay as the weakest in that first half and shortest priced from the trio but I’ll pass for now with potential to shorten in further whilst Luxembourg’s odds are also flattering, even if I believe they have enough.

It’s hard to pick much out from this semi to actually recommend but Poland is a good value safe qualifier whilst I’d also recommend playing against Azerbaijan with their odds very short for an entry I don’t give much hope to.