Odds Review: 25/04/22
It's been a week where most focus has been on the polling and in particular Eurojury. The UK have jumped ahead of Italy to take the lead there, followed by Sweden, Ukraine and Spain. With the exception of Ukraine, those are also the main runners within OGAE and Infe polling whilst preview shows in Germany and the Nordic countries further back up Italy and The UK's jury credentials.
It is of course Ukraine who have been picking up steam in the market with a near universal drift on the field. With Eurojury suggesting that circa 140-160 jury points range perhaps the fan polling is the bigger slice of comfort to any Ukraine layer. Of course, it's expected the fandom is more sensitive to something 'unworthy' winning their beloved contest but nothing really points to a 400+ record breaking TV score or even that 350 range which may be required. Ukraine remains an obvious contender despite the nonsense shortening.
Italy remains the main alternative in the odds. Despite the UK looking to take the Eurojury win, Mahmood and Blanco are the more certain proposition in terms of staging and televote. Should The UK nail their presentation and pull out a 2nd half draw for example they would probably jump ahead.
Out of the leading 4, Sweden's case makes the least mathematical sense right now with a significant lead over both Italy and Ukraine probably required with the juries- and not much sign of that, even before factoring those below it in the odds.
Spain's consistent top 5 metrics have made them the only significant exception to the drifting field. Poland have had the worst time of things in Eurojury and would hope to at least be in the region of The Netherlands, Greece, Switzerland et al around the 70, 80 pts mark. Latvia are probably the biggest overperformer (coming from a guy who had them to Q anyway) and Finland too deserve a mention as something with any merit on the outright or each way. The Rasmus is taking a very similar path in the odds to Blind Channel last year so far so perhaps this will see a similar push back down if their “big show” can deliver. Australia too are hanging around and may also be looking for that semi top 3 spot.
Saturday sees rehearsals begin and hot favourites and usual staging masters Ukraine take to the stage. Despite this, the following Thursday's big 5 first run throughs feel the most significant in shaping the year.
Coverage will ramp up here in the next week with a look at Semi 2 on Wednesday, followed by some final pre-rehearsal thoughts on the Friday. These brief odds reviews will also go daily throughout 1st rehearsals.
