Odds Review-16/05- The Last Pre-Semi Odds
We are less than a week out now and we have a new favourite!
Including pre song, Italy are the 7th country to take the lead this season (Iceland, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Switzerland, Malta, France the others for those interested) having come in massively following their rehearsals, and again further with their second half draw.
France drop back to second in the odds yet do also find themselves shorter than at our last check up. Barbara has also pulled out a second half and it's a real balancing act from the Ebu how to place these two massive big 5 favourites, made trickier by the presence of The Netherlands in 23 and the fact I still imagine Malta will be the one the producers try to help the most. I could write a full page speculating the ins and outs of what the producers could do and what would benefit each- and it’s going to be the hardest draw to put together yet, especially with Switzerland and Finland (who I’d suspect will be split apart from our two favourites) yet to enter the mix.
Malta are stuck in third place in the odds after recovering their staging somewhat. The same can't be said for Switzerland whose second rehearsal has turned Gjon from a fan favourite into a meme. When we also look at how the ever steady Sweden have somehow took the biggest step back from National Finals, SJB's reputation is at its lowest ebb.
Iceland are holding firm enough in the low teens despite a mini covid wobble on Sunday. Just as I believe they’re less susceptible to the draw, they’re also less vulnerable to the ‘this was recorded last week’ disadvantage should it come to that. A combination of the ‘Poor Little Iceland’ tropes, the ‘last year’s unofficial winner tag’ and potential EBU push may counteract that enough. Whatever they’re in for, I don’t think would be affected too much either way.
Cyprus have made some notable gains in the last week. Those following the odds and these pages here will be familiar with the wild ride their price has been on this year. Given the pattern so far, 5/6 days is probably enough time for ‘El Diablo’ to reach and crash back down from 30s a couple more times yet. Without going too far down the rabbit hole of economic market theory, this is a prime example of a ‘book balancing’ over-correction type of move. A value bet on the closest outsider gone too far. Bookmark this page should you wish to have something ready to throw back at me, but they are not in the running.
Bulgaria's brief push up the odds has come to a halt with the market seemingly forgetting all about Victoria, just as the televote will. I jest a little, and to be fair it's something I've been nibbling at every time it's gone 18/19+ on the off chance it does connect. ‘GUIGO’ is not a hill -or a rock- I intend to die on.
I suppose we best check on the rest of the pre qualified acts. Germany will no doubt be hurt by the 1-26 jury ranking system but won’t be coming last. Should the juries go completely rogue (again), The Netherlands might be the tip to surprise, the song is one of the worst of the year but performed with great conviction and passion and there’s a ‘worthiness’ to it for lack of a better word. Spain have pulled out a first half draw, further damaging a weak package whilst The UK join them and are also on for another embarrassing result- let’s leave it at that for now.
Elsewhere there's not too much to discuss as we settle on the pre semi prices. There’s a few interesting trading positions out there and I’m sure something new will spring forward in the coming days.
