Odds Review #4: Week Ending 26/01
The past week has been a dramatic one with the headline news being Moldova's withdrawal over a poor standard of songs and general lack of finance with neither of these reasons wringing particularly true. 1. Why even bother with the auditions? And 2. Bacho was right there and allegedly with funding. Attempts seem to be being made to pressure TVM into internally selecting him and the "withdrawal" has been less officially recognised than in previous times so the story may not be entirely over even if Bacho is now looking pretty resigned that no deal will be reached. Nonetheless, Moldova have of course drifted from around 40s to 800+ before settling somewhere in the 300-500 range.
Luxembourg are deep in the triple digits themselves with Laura Thorn winning through expectedly there last night. My full thoughts on that are coming on Tuesday.
Israel were a big mover in the market with their representative Yuval Raphael’s story making some headlines and reigniting some of the narrative and political implications and potential of their participation. For what it's worth I believe on last year's evidence the juries will again eliminate a chance of victory if the televote does arrive anyway. Potentially a minor market shock that gets forgotten as the contest nears and not a good time to buy.
Belgium have remained pretty static in the odds after revealing their final entries in full. "Strobe Lights" is an entry that I understand the hype and optimism around but that I’m pretty neutral on and I want to see more from Sebastian.
Slovenia are somehow sticking around in the 30s despite Klemen being true to his word and bringing an overwrought ballad. Potentially now fan favourite July Jones is holding up the price but either way I'm inclined to cross them off the list.
Portugal’s Festival Da Cancao songs were also realised with the consensus being Feranando Daniel of favourite, Josh as the fawned-over-by-the-fandom act and Henka as the very un-fdc curio. They sit currently in the 40s.
It’s not a classic Vidbir over in the usually dangerous Ukraine and it’s still a tough ask to find a really solid frontrunner there despite a few days passing since song releases. They’ve seen a drift into the high 20s and unless something really comes to live or we get a very dramatic political development they look all but out of it.
Finally, Ireland's Eurosong lineup is complete and is certainly a massive step up on the usual level with a few qualification worthy entries but maybe not much more unless we get significant revamp and strong lives.
Overall, the betting market is still looking for an act to really move for in a convincing way with the consensus strongly being no winner has been heard yet.
Next week is a busy one and starts with Serbia's song reveal before Benidorm Fest begins on Tuesday and Greece's Ethnikos Telikos takes place on Wednesday. Austria will also be naming their artist on Friday. Next Saturday sees Spain, Belgium and Slovenia select whilst Melodifestivalen also begins in Sweden who hold onto favouritism.
The previously mentioned semi final allocation draw takes place on Tuesday.
