Odds Review: Rehearsals Day 7
Australia began the day and anyone who has seen the National Final performance has seen this- it’s a very minor glow up. Sheldon continues to belt this one and probably has more in the tank yet for the live shows. Anyone looking for vocal range can stop the search here and Australia should be safe on jury points alone. The televote remains a question for obvious reasons- but for me it is a question rather than a fact this will completely bomb with the public.
Cyprus is next and this is a let down from both pre rehearsals and from the images we’d seen. My main gripes is the lighting and Andromache’s effort level. I can see what they’re going for but it’s overly dark and Andromache too wooden for what is supposed to be a happy summery song. Perhaps when the stakes matter she can bring some charisma but it’s a dangerous game to be playing. It’s not a 1.44 to 2.4 staging, that would be ridiculous, but they are on less secure ground than they could be. The price is settling just odds on reflecting that this should still make it.
Ireland had potential to be a car crash and whilst it’s not that- this isn’t the kind of performance to get excited about. Not something I’m interested in either side but qualification remains to look beyond their reach.
North Macedonia is probably the only entry in the entire semi not to have at least some folk re-assessing it upwards which is a pretty grim indicator. I’m not going to kick this whilst it’s down but we all know this won’t be featuring on the Saturday despite Andrea’s best efforts.
Estonia is a bit of an odd one- it feels “good enough” to do well but I increasingly doubt it will. They may have understaged this a bit and are the most notable of any country in being hampered by the sun. Theres’s not a huge amount to cling on too. Whilst it should still be qualifying given it’s opposition, I’m assuming it does so as a jury and tv 8th-10th consistent pick. Potential last place in the final with an early draw.
Romania haven’t really done a lot either- the routine is much more polished but that’s about it for improvements. The jury credentials for this would be poor regardless and it looks more and more unlikely they’ll be able to find the points needed even with a bit of a head start due to diaspora.
Not throwing enough at the staging is certainly not an accusation you can throw at Poland and the memes are doing the rounds already. Of course the YouTube clip is out of context somewhat but they really have overcooked it. I don’t think it makes much of a difference to the overall scoring and the differing views on its effectiveness back that up. Still that low top 10 for me.
I don’t have a whole lot of time for Montenegro and it clearly belongs in the company of the Balkan ballads to NQ than those that have qualified. The presentation of this makes it no less dull. Vladana delivers this well enough but deserves a much stronger composition.
Belgium are barely moved in the qualification betting and despite me devoting much of the time to the over-reactions in the market, it’s chances have gone down following what I saw today. The vocal was good (not great) but I don’t see much charisma on display or any reason to vote for this. It’s a jury top 10, but it’s not a tv one and unlike with Australia say, I’m not convinced the push is strong enough. I’m neutral on this so far but this is in the most trouble out of everything on my pre semi list.
Sweden has been talked about enough on these pages in terms of it’s winning chances so I’ll just say I’ve not changed my mind in this lacking the real top end televote support that may be needed. The technical issues of course did not help Cornelia to find the very top of her game. Still by far the best in the semi.
The Czech Republic qualification odds came in following rehearsals and this really should be making it through with room to spare. Vocals still not pitch perfect but they’re good enough so as not to be an issue. This is a good closer and uses its energy well.
A word now on the big 5 who we got the pics and TikTok shorts for yesterday. Sadly and by default Germany has to remain favourites for last place despite looking fairly respectable and on paper there being some jury appeal. What qualifies and what draw it receives will determine it’s fate. France will be similar to the national final display but looks to have transitioned very well to the bigger stage. The proper video feed will show us if the slickness is there but there’s a top 10 here for them. More of Chanel’s booty seems to be on display in each performance for Spain which won’t see me complaining. The use of strobe lighting has always been nice here and I’m glad it’s been kept with this another performance very much as we were expecting. Italy caused a brief spike with Mahmood’s outfit but it’s clear both he and Blanco are very laid back about rehearsals. Like Salvador Sobral, everything will be fine on the night and this is the hardest staging to balls up. Seriously- even the dried ice/smoke effect is overkill- this is all about the lighting, chemistry and camerawork. The UK was the biggest enignma coming into these rehearsals and have a giant scaffolding structure for Sam to belt Spaceman out from in the middle of. Thematically, I guess this is supposed to be a lander and whilst the stills look impressive the camerawork looks to be essential in generating movement. Most interesting is the word that the last section of the song has been mixed up. The initial positive reaction for this has since dried up and The UK is out at 16+ whilst Italy have just about halted the drift. Ukraine remain a runaway train at the top of the market now below 1.9.
