Odds Review- Week Ending 21/02
We have a bunch of new songs down as confirmed now as we enter the business end of the season so let's jump straight in…
Norway’s choice of TIX is the main talking point from this week with ‘Fallen Angel’ causing a fall in the odds down around 40. KEiiNO was no winner but TIX will be even further off the pace and I’m surprised not to see this at 100+ yet.
Finland also selected their entry in a high quality UMK. ‘Blind Channel’ were the best choice (perhaps tied with the unlikely Oskr) and should be looking to finish above Norway now. Qualification shouldn’t be a problem, but again, not a winner.
Spain dragged their two song selection on for over two hours to decide which entry Blas should make the bottom 5 with. ‘Voy a Querdame’ was the choice.
The Czech Republic also released ‘Omaga’ at the start of week and fans seem fairly happy. The odds are less kind and The Czech’s have drifted like a barge.
Reviews of all 4 of these entries are live and can be found here.
The UK, masters of PR that they are, dropped their predictable news of James Newman returning before 8am on Friday morning with the song expected ‘sometime’ in March. After the whole charade we’re being forced to play with Bulgaria, it’s refreshing in a way, but another example of how little thought goes into the contest. James is coming with something ‘up-tempo’ this time which is closer to his most known work, at least if we take ‘up-tempo’ to mean not just a faster paced ballad. Something much edgier than ‘My Last Breath’ is required, but there’s reason to be optimistic this will be an improvement.
Iceland have become clear favourites throughout the week and are the first country to stay in single figures for any real period of time. I know other countries are flattering to deceive right now so it’s only reasonable for a favourite to shorten, but we’re talking sizeable sums here and a not insignificant shift from a steady 11s-12s, whilst the rest have stayed fairly steady. I do have suspicions this is insider money. They’ve been filming their video which is a time some might lump on. If it is inside money, it’s still not a guarantee of anything and I’d be surprised if Dadi was able to meet fans’ sky high expectations. One to be very cautious with.
Someone’s finger appeared to have slipped on Cyprus with a blink and you’d miss it move down to 11s. I’ve not said anything on them for a while but I am expecting something strong and were this a music video contest, I’d make them one of the favourites, their issue may be live. 30s is more reasonable than the 40s/50s this was at for a while. We get ‘El Diablo’ on Wednesday.
Sweden saw some love on the market too caused by the release of Tusse’s ‘Voices’ but has since gone back out to ehre we were before. That entry is on a par with ‘Little Tot’ at best and is destined to flop with a Eurovision televote if it is selected. There’s no Eurovision winner in Sweden’s field yet with the only possible hope now that Eric Saade is not just in Melfest for self promotion as suspected and has something modern like ‘Heroes’ in his locker, something that looks very unlikely.
Bulgaria have released all their entries now. I’ve been tweeting my thoughts on these throughout the week so to be brief ‘Imaginary Friend’ is the only entry that could do anything significant with the televote, and that and ‘Growing Up Is Getting Old’ would be jury favourites. Bulgaria have drifted throughout the week, mainly after the middle three entries were released. Given the current field, 16s/17s is not a bad price *if* it is ‘Imaginary Friend’, otherwise Bulgaria will be disappointed.
In addition to Cyprus, we also get the much less fancied San Marino and Ireland, whatever Jendrik has got for Germany and Slovenia’s song.
