Eurovision 2021: A First Preview
I think it's always useful to wait until we have all the songs and to let them settle before we start talking about the standard of the year and from my perspective it's not great. There will certainly be some weak entries to make it through to the final, particularly from semi 2 whilst there is no convincing winner and I think we are looking under the 500 points range for a winner, meaning we need to be more open minded.
It's also a jury heavy year at the top of the market with 5 of the break away top 6 (Switzerland, Malta, France, Bulgaria, Sweden) being more reliable with the juries - Italy being the exception. That could go both ways: potentially the likes of Italy and the chasing pack in the odds of Lithuania, Iceland and any of the outsiders (that lean TV) could be too far back or, as I feel is more likely- the jury is going to be unable to give any clear/ unassailable lead- think something like 2018. Provisionally and going off my staging assumptions, I have something like this with them for the top 8 in the odds.
Malta 230 Sweden 210 Switzerland 190 Bulgaria 180 France 170 Italy 160 Lithuania 140 Iceland 130
It's not the kind of score I'd be comfortable declaring on and taking it to the t.v. for any of the top 5 there and we could get something weirder than Duncan's 3rd+2nd. Maybe a 2+4 or a 5+1 or higher. It really does strike me as that kind of year of low margins and a low winner's score. Onto the contenders:
Malta
As a market leader Malta has a lot of problems and being the last to release, all of my concerns in the review still stand so I won't spend too long here. The big one is staging and it's the country we know the least about to that extent. Malta have a really poor record with their up-tempo efforts ('Walk On Water', 'Taboo', 'Chamaeleon') and a Charleston instrumental lends itself to becoming incredibly messy. I can see this drifting on the first live- whenever that may be- but I don't begrudge it's place at the top of the odds for now despite my first impressions.
There is potential here, but it's my cautious opinion that it won't be fulfilled and the televote is uncertain, particularly if they get unlucky with a first half draw.
Switzerland
'Tout L'Univers' was the only entry to give anything close to goosebumps this year and in studio form is a worthy favourite. Live is going to be the issue here with Gjon's detachment already seen last year and now this with the price having drifted out on his first performance. He's 99% going to be behind that piano (which didn't help Duncan either) and will be stuck with the last winner comparisons.
It is a very simplistic comparison but it's not a coincidence that each winner has pivoted in a massively different direction over the last decade, particularly to the previous one.
Though the Spanish performance was disappointing, there might be something there to work from and maybe the staging idea should be to focus less on Gjon and more on a backdrop- not of random celebrities but maybe some story playing out, something like Germany 2018 or a sand lady could work well maybe. Going the Duncan route with lighting and close ups is not enough here and I’m a little surprised the market re-acted so negatively to the first live. I thought Gjon’s inability to look down the camera and connect had already been accounted for in the price.
I do struggle to see enough room for two French language ballads on the podium as the odds suggest and in my view if one is top 4 the other will be scraping top 10. E/W is not the play for the Swiss and France for that reason. 'Tout L'Univers' is the better song but right now Barbara is ready to go. I will give the benefit of the doubt that they can pull this together and if they do the potential is higher than for ‘Voila’. It's a green for now (mostly from pre song) but I wouldn't be surprised if this fell apart at rehearsals and failed to place.
France
Now France was selected all the way back in January which means I've had the most time to change my initial opinion. Whilst the year has panned out worse than expected, I still wouldn't be surprised if Barbara finished outside the top 10. We've been here before with France and whilst they're unlikely to screw up the staging this time I'm still not seeing that something special that elevates this so far above a well performed Chanson. I was one of the most keen on Salvador's chances but I don't see that same magic here and I'm more cautious with the Fandom love-in.
Interestingly, as I've seen Salvador mentioned a lot with this, that makes the entire top 3 whose main point of reference is one of the 3 previous winners. Are we just stuck looking for the same things to work again? Anyway, she's not helped by Switzerland but is the more reliable performer and we’ll probably see another move for them if his first rehearsal goes poorly. I'm not a fan of this at 7/8s, but like Switzerland it's really the top4/5 and e/w to avoid rather than necessarily the outright- it’s a hit or miss effort.
Bulgaria
I've thought a lot about Bulgaria's choice and I still think they have tried to be too clever for their own good here. 'Growing Up Is Getting Old' may have more staging potential, but I don't think it works on that emotional level needed to start with. There's a fine line between engaging and boring and right now it's a toilet break. Like the market, I do have more faith in this live but with this around 13s expectations there are high and it's current price leaves very little margin for error, particularly given last years somewhat disappointing Eurojury score for by most accounts a much superior song.
I’ve re-listened to everything in a eurovision final type order, and this is memory holed incredibly quickly and it’s chances have gradually gone down in my estimations since they selected it.
I don't know what they're planning, but if I was to guess it might be a recreation of the 'Tears Getting Sober' video or at least the staging they had planned for that, something intimate and one take perhaps.
Like the market, I do believe this will look much better when it reaches the stage but I don’t know if that’s enough to grab and engage from the start in a field of 26. The message also falls a little flat for me and I wonder if it will land or come across too ‘soft millennial’. It’s certainly the entry here out of all the front runners that has gone down in my predictions since it was first selected.
Italy
When I first heard 'Zitti e Buoni' I thought my San Remo bet on Maneskin was gone. They massively improved over the week there but obviously need to start on a high with less margin for error now. The song is nothing ground-breaking and does lose something without the orchestra but it's all about the vibe this gives off, and if anything it should work better in the Eurovision field. The key word is authenticity. Whilst I don't doubt that everything high in the odds is authentic at least to an extent, they are also clearly selected and staged with the hopes of doing well at Eurovision. This is just a band doing their thing and the televote will respond to that more and being Italian is no harm. Ideally, Finland would not be about but they're less of an issue for me than the two French ballads have or the many bops.
Juries are never going to go for it to the same extent as a Sweden, but as mentioned earlier, they should be close enough behind and I fancy the televote to hold the power this year.
This does need a second half draw for it to have the necessary impact and Italy would be a great show closer, if they get lucky with the draw and the Ebu are willing to give it them again.
It's also not the kind of entry to go off as favourite and if they do come through it may be from third favourites just like at San Remo.
Sweden
Tusse does have a bit of a niche at the top of the odds as a modern, mid tempo male song but even then I wouldn't be surprised if the televote had Norway higher. His Melfest public vote was highly impressive, but so was Blind Channel's in Finland, Maneskin's in the San Remo superfinal and even more so The Roop's in Lithuania. It's not something to get carried away over and the view is still that the televote, particularly in Eastern countries, is not going to bite. The staging is excellent, but it's award show staging- not vote winning staging. I want to stay clear of politics really but the BLM branding takes the 'million voices' message of inclusivity and equality and makes it exclusive to large parts of the televote. I have real doubts people outside of the cause are going to be moved emotionally which was essential for Conchita or Jamala, and the Swedish slickness is to blame. The juries will respect it and they have to, It ticks every box and I know it's ragged on a lot but the song isn't bad either and is honestly one of the better ones in the field.
Again though, I don't think jurors are going to give this a big enough lead over everything else in the field. A good trade? probably. E/W? Maybe. But to get enough points to win, this has a really hard job.
Lithuania
I haven't wrote this off and the odds have moved the wrong way here. 'Discoteque' should have started above 20s and now be that mid teens price it was for a while. Since release the assumed LittleBig return hasn't happened at all and the assumed world beater in Dadi Freyr has disappointed. It's not aged well among fans, but to the casual viewer watching everything in the lineup for the first time it stands out a mile and is instantly catchy. For what it's worth, and that will be less and less probably by late May, it also has the Covid relevant lyrics and fun that could grab the televote too which is something small to consider. Juries won't destroy it and Lithuania are quite well positioned to do well from a few corners of Europe with this and have the most active diaspora amongst the contenders. The market is also worse at predicting Eastern tastes and this might fit the bill.
It's also worth mentioning they, along with Bulgaria, have been currying favour hosting back-up performances.
The main argument against it is that it's lightweight, and I totally agree. It should really be in that 3-7 range I first predicted and likely still will be. If it does climb higher it will be down to the failings of the market leaders to do any business with the televote. It's limited to the points it can gather and is relying on others messing up their staging but it's a year to be open-minded: it may just be a 'Hey Mama' in a year without an 'Amar Pelos Dois' or 'Beutifull Mess'.
Iceland
There’s not too much to say on Dadi and it's still the same situation for him. Whilst the entry is better 'live' than as assumed in the leak, he still needs that hype and is well off the pace on song alone- much more than Lithuania are and more than last year. How they are going to stage the orchestral start and children’s choir sections of the reveal will be interesting given the limitations at Rotterdam and we’re still waiting on the video (Monday I believe) which is the next big hope of Iceland backers for Dadi to go viral.
With such an open year, I’m barely getting chance to draft an article before the odds have moved again, here's what I wrote yesterday evening:
“Having said that, whilst mid 20s is not a fair reflection of his winning chance, it’s not a bad price in that this is likely the peak until jury voting starts. If you want to back Iceland now is the time and this is the price, not the pre song single figures. “
Half the art is getting a country at its peak price, whether you believe in it or not. I’m obviously less enthused at 16/17s and there's room for movement either way from that price in the next few weeks.
The Chasing Pack and Dark Horses
Despite my doubts over all of those front runners, I’m also not confident in any song coming from further back to really challenge for the victory.
Cyprus
‘El Diablo’ still has the markings of one that underperforms from 8th/9th in the odds rather than one that's elevated into the top places. Not to be all ‘Cypriot Church’ on it but there is just something off aesthetically and there is something of an unsettling vibe. High 30s is fair at this point.
Greece
There are a lot of murmurings over what Fokas is planning here and if it comes off this could be a mover. 'Last Dance' has the trimmings of a dark horse in a likeable performer and 'average' song needing elevation. The execution has been lacking on some of the dream team's recent concepts but there is some reason to be hopeful here. Saying that, I wouldn't like to see this any lower than mid 40s for now.
Romania
Maybe I'm just a hipster and I'm cautious being too optimistic as this is my personal favourite of the year but for me this has more potential than 'Alcohol You'. It's less reliant on Roxen's ability to connect and more on the stageshow. 'Amnesia' is an odd one in that it's instantly catchy, yet is fittingly gone from the memory after 5 minutes on the first, second and even third listen. Something big is needed in order to compensate for the lack of a hook and I wouldn't mind to see them recreate the video to an extent- give us a visual memory to compensate for the lack of an audio one. From some rehearsal clips I've seen, that may be what they are going for.
San Marino
The joker in the pack. If Flo is a show, the odds go low (low, low, low, low, low, low, low). The signs are somewhat promising and you know the EBU would facilitate a big name. There's the potential for media coverage (as shown with just the rumours getting attention), more credibility and all of the casual money would be piling on this, coupled with 'Adrenalina' being arguably the best up-tempo pop song of the year regardless. Staging is the other question mark and Senhit will also need to look the part- it's one thing doing that in a music video but live is a different matter.
Croatia
This was going to be a dark horse tip for similar reasons as Greece- average, radio friendly song with a very likeable singer. Unfortunately they've ran into a lot of competition this year and you have to lean towards those that haven't been seen live yet perhaps having an extra gear. As it's well in triple figures, I'd rather green it than leave it but top 10 looks the limit and even that hopes for a Serbia nq.
North Macedonia
If you want to throw some money away Vasil is the very long odds pick. It's a theatrical number that could be elevated live and there's a small, small chance of his story gaining some traction. It's hard to judge the merits of this in the field which may lead to some kindness to it. With the vague inspirational message, vocal showcase and gospel choir it's the modern day version of throwing everything at an entry in a desperate attempt to pick up points from anywhere. It's not my thing at all and 99 times out of 100 this fails to qualify, finishes bottom 5, scrapes mid table etc but it's the only one of the many 100+ I can make a case for right now.
Norway and Finland are top 10 contenders but neither look to be in with a shot at winning. TIX's staging silliness will be too much for jurors but he doesn't half stand out and Norway could be on to another big televote score. Since the split in 2016 there's always been one that 'comes from nowhere' and I agree with those saying that could be 'Fallen Angel'. Finland were always going to struggle to reach beyond the core audience and Italy has pretty much wiped out those hopes for me. It's a 9th-10th at best if everything goes well for it and should be nowhere near odds on for the top 10.
As for the other two under 100-1, Russia should improve from their national final showing but have sent a song aimed at the diaspora that large parts of said diaspora actively dislike. Moldova have slightly higher prospects but something like 10th-15th is as good as it's getting, unless a lot of the pack disappoint.
At the bottom end last place should really be Germany's although the Netherlands and Spain are still in trouble down there. Anything that scrapes through should have enough to avoid last with those 3 in the mix.
Top 10 prediction at this stage:
1. Italy
2. Switzerland
3. Lithuania
4. Malta
5. Sweden
6. Iceland
7. France
8. Bulgaria
9. San Marino
10. Norway
Now this is obviously a b.s. prediction and aligns way too much with the odds (same top 8) in an open year but it’s the best I can offer right now and is not to be taken too seriously. Second place was the hardest to assign and ideally I’d have Switzerland in 5th or 6th too given my staging fears but they have the strongest case from the ballads right now. San Marino are more likely to be either 5th or 15th than 9th depending on staging and you-know-who but I have to average it out somehow. Romania and Greece are the two most likely to break through in my opinion, but I can’t justify throwing them in there for now.