Finland: UMK21 Preview
Finland have been releasing their UMK participants one at a time over the last week, with the final due to take place on the 20th Feb and having a 75% public 25% international jury voting split. So in the order they were released, here are my first impressions on all the competing entries.
Oskr - ‘Lie’ A very strong first song reveal with an Ed Sheeran-esque talky, storytelling feel and simple composition. It’s honestly stronger than Ed Sheeran’s latest release in my opinion and flows well. Would qualify for Finland and might be the best choice but will have a hard time in this national final however, up against some bigger names and a potential “let’s send Aksel again” vote. A higher jury weighting would have helped counteract that a little more
Teflon Brothers x Pandora - ‘I Love You’ My expectations were not set too high here for this. ‘I Love You’ is just about passable as fodder in the national final, something a bit up-tempo to break up proceedings amongst two more fancied songs. On the other hand they’ve been hitting some good streaming figures, the fandom seem keen and it’s a bit of “fun” in an otherwise serious and quite downbeat field so it can’t be wrote off completely, even if any jury worth their salt should have this last.
Danny - ‘Sinä päivänä kun kaikki rakastaa mua’ A quick detour to make here; I don't translate lyrics, never do, never will. Sometimes I'll understand them anyway knowing a few languages to a decent standard and word similarity and usually get the gist anyway from fan site reporting etc etc but I'm not looking them up for two reasons: 1- It puts me in as good a position as the majority of the Eurovision audience. 2- the majority of my personal favourite songs are non-English and I prefer not to know. Sort of similar to how the Albanian entries are always better before switching into English. Anyway, as already stated on the site and on twitter. Danny is not out of this, but were he to win, I don't see anything beyond a NQ.
Laura - ‘Play’ No stranger to a national final, but this time one in her ‘second home’, Laura has brought an OK song to the mix here. ‘Play’ is too anonymous however and I’m not sure how many people are going to pick up and vote for this or her. I also worry how the live performance might come across, both vocally and visually. Not in contention.
Aksel- ‘Hurt’ Last year’s final was a bit of a non-event (no, ‘Cicciolina’ was not the best thing ever) so it’s hard to judge the popularity of Aksel to the Finnish audience. He’s voteable for sure and a ‘lets send him again’ vote is very likely. As for the song, it’s marginally worse than last year’s attempt which had a better rhythm for my money but you can argue either way. Does not help Oskr’s cause, stepping on that sad boy territotry.
Blind Channel - ‘Dark Side’ Without wanting to stereotype an entire country, is it really a Finish selection without at least some variety of rock involved? The song is decent enough but there is nothing ground-breaking here either. It’s also in a weird position of not being fully accessible whilst lacking a little something to help it feel less ‘shouty pop with guitars’. Has a good chance in this field due to being something different here, but needs a few things to go it’s way.
Ilta - ‘Kelle ma soitan’ The first rumour that generated a little interest in Finland this year and saved until last, expectations were moderately high for this, expecting something that could win UMK, despite a relatively good field. I don’t think this is quite that. It’s a very competent ballad, it just seems to be lacking a bit of impact although the live performance could change that.
YLE have done a good enough job here. They’ve got some decent contemporary entries, some big names including a legend of Finnish music, a former esc contestant known to the fandom, gave Axel a second go and thrown some good variety in.
That all makes this is a complicated national final, not only do we have a small jury weighting, we also have two participants who may push above their songs’ merits in Danny and Aksel meaning this could easily be a final that disappoints the fandom, and the betting market. ‘Lie’ would be the best choice for Finland to send (in terms of scoring potential) but it is a tall ask. ‘Dark Side’ would stand out in the Eurovision field too and give Finland a good shot at qualifying. Laura apart- a pretty certain last place, I don’t think any act can be 100% written off and staging will be key. Right now however I give the edge to Blind Channel, simply for standing out more, but the early odds on quotes coming out do not appeal at all. Aksel is very dangerous still, he’s just about close enough in terms of song quality and I don’t want to underestimate the potential for a big vote for him, particularly as he somewhat upset the odds (and certainly the fans) last year too. I would give the rest of the field (excluding Laura) a roughly similar chance, not far behind the two I’ve highlighted.
Update: 19/02 5pm
It’s just over 24 hours until the final and the ground has shifted slightly here, so it’s worth having one final update: The running order has been released and is as follows:
1.Teflon Brothers X Pandora
2.Aksel
3.Laura
4.Danny
5.Oskr
6.Blind Channel
7.Ilta
The most notable aspect is Aksel being dumped in second place, its a really tough draw for him, not only does he follow the most popular song in the lineup, he starts a bit of a lull that ends with Blind Channel and Ilta. YLE know they have better options, and even though he’s a proven winner with the Finnish public, his entry has probably not been gaining enough traction to threaten.
I think he may be out of it. Instead Ilta looks poised to threaten, she has the pimp slot and has not been far behind Blind Channel in some of the metrics. When you factor in the 25% jury vote, she could spring a surprise. The Teflon Bros and Pandora are ahead in the charts and could come into it but any jury worth their salt should be having them last or second last here so they don’t really appeal still, nor do the heavy odds on for Blind Channel, they’re rightly the favourites, but not worth backing at those koinds of prices. I don’t think it’s a final worth getting involved with, save for some small stakes on Ilta, she’s available at double figures and probably should be closer to 5s.
Anyway, a full and final prediction for the evening:
Blind Channel
Ilta
Teflon Brothers X Pandora
Aksel
Oskr
Danny
Laura
What are your thoughts on the field? Leave your comments below.