Sweden: Melodifestivalen Grand Final 2021 Preview
Andra Chansen on Saturday was not the best one here with only 2/4 duels called correctly, and not the two I wanted! As always, I'm not much of a fan of h2h formats (a main reason I stayed away from much of Norway’s mgp) so stakes were kept small and thankfully results elsewhere on Saturday more than made up for it. Anyway, let's see what there is to make of the final…
Firstly, I don’t think there’s too much to take from the running order. Eric has the more traditional preferential slot but it’s not ideal to be followed by Dotter; there are worse acts that could have followed. Tusse goes earlier in 7th (a position yet to yield a winner) but this isn’t too much of a disadvantage and he is surrounded by some of the less competitive entries. The Mama’s in 4th shows how desperate Christer is for this not to win, with him even resisting another ‘In The Middle’ pun putting this in 6th. It didn’t work last year and might not this.
Tusse starts off as a heavy odds on favourite which looks a little short. At those kinds of odds, I want an act that I think wins the public vote and jury vote convincingly. Tusse's streaming is surprisingly strong and he's opened up a big gap there, but there are still question marks. It's often that Sweden votes for one thing and listens to another as seen with the likes of Emil Skarsgaard this year. Whilst Tusse should be a consistent scorer, he may not be top of many age categories, with younger groups skewing towards Eric, Danny Saucedo etc and older groups to The Mamas, Clara Klingenstrom etc.
Juries are at the same time being given too much and not enough credit. On the one hand at Melfest they skew more ‘fanboy’ in tastes than at esc which favours the returning acts. They also like slick staging, flashy lights and style above substance which applies to Eric even more than Tusse, with Tusse only really ahead in the vocals category.
And on the other hand, Tusse’s song is average. In studio alone, this is nowhere near a winner. You can argue the same with Eric although I believe that's more contemporary, different and chart-worthy.
I don't think either the jury or the televote is a done deal here although he will be there or thereabouts. He is the favourite but if he wins, I don't think it's by the sort of margin his odds would suggest.
Eric Saade has a more divisive entry but I sit somewhere on the fence here. I understand those calling this a potential Eurovision winner and of my three key complaints against that (vocals, lyrics and general smugness/douchebag-ary) none are really aimed at Melfest.
The influence of a certain Mr. B is important here too, this ticks all of his boxes if no-one else’s and we know he's on great terms with Eric. Melfest is often a closed shop and the likes of Tusse and Dotter may need to put in a few more appearances to get the nod. No one is calling foul play or anything extreme, but juries are briefed on what to mark up and down. Looking at the technical aspects, as mentioned earlier, Eric has by far the most impressive staging and that is often the difference at Melfest. His vote will of course skew young and he'll need to win those age groups, win the jury and hope Tusse is also held back on the older demographics. I don’t think that is such an unlikely scenario.
The Mamas have been lagging well behind on Spotify and YouTube data but there are two reasons why I don't believe the gap is as big as suggested between them and the others. Firstly they appeal to the older demographics much more than the other big three here. And second, we need to consider again if there is any difference between what Sweden wants to listen to and what they want to win, which are not necessarily one and the same. You can throw the sympathy vote in there too but that might be minimal as Melfest does focus on the here and now a lot (it has to with all the returning acts every year) and they have at least been to Eurovision as backing singers too. On that point, we might be seeing a bit of Mamas fatigue in Sweden. Overall, they should out punch their numbers though and from a jury perspective, this song is more intricate than last year's and you can't question the vocals. They are not out of this just yet.
As for the rest:
Dotter looks a bit hopeless now and whilst she could get in the top 3, she doesn't have enough to beat all of the three rivals. ‘Little Tot’ hasn't gained enough traction to challenge with the public and whilst the international juries will like her, there's not enough to push for a victory. Clara Klingenstrom is coming up on the rails but her momentum will probably come to a halt again as she is thrown back in the deep end against the big names. Danny Saucedo should do OK and is the final pick to finish in the top half.
Charlotte Perelli may then be the best of the rest and should avoid the lower reaches, along with Klara Hammarstrom. I am slightly more worried for Arvingarna now considering how badly Sannex did in semi 4 and Ewa and Eva's failure at Andra Chansen. Sweden may have had their fill of the more novelty entries by now, but they do stand out enough in the lineup and the pimp slot should help. Whilst not jury fare, they should be able to see how well this is performed.
Last place should be one of Paul Rey or Alvaro Estrella, with these pop boys (Anton Ewald included) unlikely to be favoured ahead of Eric Saade, Danny Saucedo and Tusse. They will also struggle with the older demographics. The juries should be showing Alvaro the least love so he is the pick.
So here is the overall prediction:
Eric Saade
Tusse
The Mamas
Dotter
Clara Klingenstrom
Danny Saucedo
Charlotte Perelli
Klara Hammarstrom
Arvingarna
Anton Ewald
Paul Rey
Alvaro Estrella
I acknowledge Tusse is a strong package but I do get the impression something is just going to pip him. There just seems to be too many who merely like it and not enough who love it and with the jury still able to separate acts better, Eric’s is the entry more akin to recent jury tastes.
Tusse is a small red for me but I don't have much interest in backing him around 1.6 and this is a value call. There are other bets I have my eye on based of these predictions but things will be kept small here, I don't think the odds are too far out and the likelihood of insider trading needs to be acknowledged.
As for Eurovision, Saade has the highest ceiling, Tusse would be a jury fav but give Sweden another embarrassing televote, and the Mamas wouldn't do much damage at all.