Poland 2024: LUNA with ‘The Tower’
Poland's annual habit of dissapointing the fandom continues with LUNA narrowly coming through their internal selection process.
First things first, whilst confirmation of this has seen Poland's outright odds quadruple, I can understand why there was a close run debate vs 'WITCH-ER', which is mainly my distrust of that rather than faith in this. I'm not really a fan of 'The Tower' but it is a competent and respectable, modern enough radio song - in TVP's mind a good antidote to the memes that have surrounded their last two entries and an attempt to increase jury appeal.
I do feel this might be too far under the radar however for even juries which is what I assume Poland were targeting. This won't receive a big jury push obviously, but I'm also sceptical it will even be turned to for filling out a jury top 10 - it's more likely to be consistently 13th-20th for my money except with allies and underperform on that side.
We'll see how well this looks live yet however before formalising that opinion. There's room for a stageshow and with this sounding like many a Melfest entrant I'm sure SVT will have no trouble helping the delegation make this look quite slick.
In semi 1 The UK, Ireland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Iceland are all voting here so that's close to your rough 50 points mark straight off the bat on historical averages. In fact, these 5 countries were the top 5 t.v. contributers to Poland in the final last year sending 43 points overall where there were 11 more entries to pick from than there will be here. Yes it's a crowded first half of a tough semi but Poland could not have asked for better company and will almost certainly make the final. If they could do so at the expense of fellow female pop from Cyprus and/or Luxembourg would be even better.
In the final it will again be a job of calculating their diaspora points, adding 10-30 onto that and working out what the jury makes of this. Overall, a boring mid table prediction is what I have to offer and I'm leaning to the lower side of that for now.
Personal Rating: 2/10
Competitve Rating: 5/10
Early Prediction: Semi 1 6th-9th, 15th-19th in the final