Ukraine 2023: Tvorchi with ‘Heart of Steel’
I'd like to begin this review by sincerely thanking our leading betting exchanges for not making vidbir available this year. Ukraine is always liable to throw up a bit of a curve ball but this outcome was still unexpected all things considered. Instead of Jerry Heil or Krutь, Tvorchi were able to take the victory and bring the first official entry for Liverpool for us to chew over:
Considering vidbir this year was coming from a bunker below Kyiv's metro system production values were high and that was especially true for Tvorchi who's slick presentation and randomly drawn pimp slot potentially made the difference. It's still a curious choice from Ukraine overall in the well known circumstances with "Heart Of Steel" turning it's back on the more ethnic approach of the last few years (and all of their 3 victories). Despite their staging and lyrics fitting, I have to ask if this is an accidental outcome for a nation keen to use the spotlight of Eurovision or is selecting a more Western oriented act a deliberate outcome? Or am I reading too much into all of that and trying to sound like more of a big brain than I am. Probably that.
In any event, how Ukraine ended up with this doesn't really matter now. "Heart Of Steel" is a generic, even poor composition that is elevated by it's slick performance. There's not much of a lasting melody or hook that's stuck with me; although it's an engaging 3 minutes I'm not sure what if any impression is left after a short passage of time.
That presentation was already Tvorchi's strong point and Ukraine are one of if not the best countries at bringing a big stage A game so I don't worry much for it live. I would expect them to have to tone down the gas masks and such however.
Middling song, good performance and from a reliable country all adds up to a potential left hand side finish- except we're not exactly in normal times which brings us into the real points of debate on the war...
Given that an additional year will have passed and the fact those inclined have already had the chance to voice their support for the country, there's no doubt in my mind that the sympathy/solidarity vote that propelled Kalush to victory will be significantly lower and I don't believe this entry will be able to bring that emotion back to the forefront in the way Jerry Heil or Krutь could have. Junior Eurovision is not something I pay attention to in general but I was keeping an eye on Ukraine's outcome there which fell, from my understanding, into pretty mediocre and below expectation territory. In my view, that's pretty inconsequential but if there is any correlation it's certainly not a promising one.
A further reduction from the unprecedented televote back in May will be through returning diaspora with a not insignificant number returning home. Of course, we're months away from voting and this could swing sizeably still.
Whilst all that sounds negative for Ukraine's chances we can't get too carried away and instead have to remember they can probably afford to lose a huge number of voters in raw numbers and still score massively in the televote. Kalush were likely racking up 12 points per country with a huge gap to the countries getting 10. With the scoring system and general level of voting as it is, Ukraine will therefore remain a key player in and potential winner of the televote.
The main hope for layers this year will again be the juries. Unless they want to be binned from the main show too, they will have to take a pretty dim view of this entry and I expect their level of support to drop markedly. The Ebu will not want Ukraine to win again with what will certainly not be close to the strongest package. I'd expect circa 100 pts will be given here and the juries position to be justified as a necessary balance to the televote.
I'm not going down the rabbit hole of this being kind-of-but-not-really a host entry yet although that would traditionally be a drag on voting too.
In total, 350-450 points is my stupidly early ball park prediction, Ukraine are starting from too much of a base not to do well but this is capped too and "Heart Of Stone" is no more than a 'default winner' should the year turn out poor. I can't write off the win and must be open minded given how wrong most of us were last year with basically the same arguments but this is a very lacking favourite.
Personal Rating: 6/10
Competitve Rating: 8/10
Early Prediction: 3rd-7th