Israel 2025: Yuval Raphael with ‘New Day Will Rise’
Israel are sticking in the ballad lane as expected with Yuval Raphael's entry for Basel released last week:
I think I've gone some ways over the years in fine tuning my female ballad radar which used to be a bit of a weak point for me, although I probably do have the tendency to under-estimate a strong one on occasion. That said, the market does like overly like to jump on "emotional songs" which fall way short (Lithuania 2018, Bulgaria '21, Greece '22) but not typically to this extent, which is obviously amplified by Israel's supposed televote support.
The initial reaction itself was a bit "meh" overall however with most fans seemingly relieved that this was not a threat to win - or sentiments to that effect. It's hard to take opinions too seriously or at face value, but that appears the general sentiment from the more sensible. I'd actually be on that side and am not one who is offended by their participation shall we say so am not approaching it through that potentially wishful thinking lense. Betting folk on the whole are more split however and I think that view is only the slight majority.
To me, this is a good song but doesn't stand out as something special. Honestly, it's closer to Maria Elena Kyriakou than Polina Gagarina to those making that comparison.
It's quite lyrically on the nose and I also don't get much of the emotion from it, at least in music video guise. 'Hurricane' was a less interesting piece of music but more effective in conveying the mood it was going for and more anthemic. The big choruses can be impressive live and I find this turning the dial back down after for a piano outro the most effective part, and some good narrative songwriting.
Yuval's story and background is something that caused a market panic when she was selected, just as her song now has, but we're relying a lot on that being conveyed effectively, rather than the very visceral mood last year. I'm not really expecting the atmosphere or coverage to be the same this second time around and there's more a fear above anything else that Israel can just stroll to the same sort of televote score again. Their score and support has bounced around wildly before last year and they will not remain at some 300 point starting level for the rest of time. I guess we will see what the atmosphere ends up like in May but I do feel that was more a one and done show of support.
This is very similar in that sense to the Ukraine situation, where we were unsure what Tvorchi could achieve as the successor to Kalush, only without a new diaspora having been simultaneously created.
Staging is a strong point for Israel and this could work live much better, Yuval is a good vocalist who can maybe make this suddenly click for me in Basel. Like 20+ became the norm a few weeks after Yuval initially dipped to 7s I'd expect this to also tail off a bit before May too and return more under the radar. It's a pattern Israel have followed a lot both this year and last. Eurojury is something I've begun to mention in these reviews as we draw closer to the full stack of songs and this feels 7th or so, assuming political support and blanking. Better than that might start up a more serious debate.
Semi Final two is very favourable for this with the strongest competition seemingly Austria, Finland and Malta, all of which could be fan flops to varying degrees so in with a pretty good chance there. In the final this is hard to predict but feels 160-240 on the televote, a nice 100 or so from the juries may join that. I really don't see this as a winner on either side and returning again to Russia '15, the contest is far more politicised since then with opposing sentiment against Israel a lot stronger than it was for Russia back then, presumably at the jury level too. A return to Tel Aviv isn't just something fans do not want, it is something the EBU would also like to avoid.
Personal Rating: 11/20
Staging Potential: 18/20
Televote Potential: 18/20
Jury Potential: 15/20
Track Record: 17/20
Total Rating: 79/100
Early Prediction: Semi Two 1st-3rd, 4th-7th in the final.