Melodifestivalen 2022 Final Preview
Given we literally do know our four semi winners this year - rather than other years where its really unclear ;) - it's no surprise the odds have grouped around the top bunch. Cornelia Jakobs goes into this as odds on favourite after winning week one. Streaming and views are good for her, and have picked up momentum the last couple of days although I get the impression there's more excitement around her in the international fandom than domestic. It’s of course the jury vote where she is stronger however and beyond the song itself there are two reasons for that. One, it’s a field that skews televote in general and two, the producers intentions are 100% clear.
The televote is expected to go heavily for Anders Bagge and it's possible he does a clean sweep of 12s. How far he will be behind by that point is the big question and what this whole event will come down to. There's a case for it to come anywhere with them but my main assumption is its a fairly open field behind the top 2/3 and he won't be completely binned.
It’s a national final where sitting down and doing the maths has made Cornelia look every bit the odds on favourite. I have her give or take 45 points ahead of Anders in the jury vote but Anders just 20 ahead. Over and under-estimations are possible either way but that’s a big gap in Melfest.
Klara Hammarstrom has been posting the best numbers and was looking to get herself back into the running. That draw of 1st helps none but realistically shouldn't make a lot of difference and I can still see her second in the televote and in touch with the juries.
Liamoo is the last of the big four and would be the biggest surprise. His route to victory is to sneak through with a 2/4 type split and that just isn't mathematically likely with Cornelia ahead on both counts and Anders a mile ahead with the public not to mention Klara and Medina. Adding dancers brings makes him a bit more of a wildcard but he looks a pretty steady 3rd-5th- no more, no less.
From here onwards it gets closer and I can't see much in it on the jury side with televote support being my main metric. Medina is a great closer and were impressive to come through their semi so slot in 5th.
I've then got Tone Sekelius who may take up position in the top half of the field. There’s some real momentum behind this and jurors will probably be kinder than the vocal and song deserves. John Lundvik, Anna Bergendahl and Theoz should have enough support to avoid the bottom places although Anna’s polling is an increasing concern.
Robin Bengtsson usually has that support too but has been lost after getting through in the first week and is such filler he has an outside chance of the wooden spoon. Last place does look to be Faith Kakembo and her (dubious) direct qualification may have worked against her. It's easy to forget this is here. Cazzi Opeia would be my second guess with her not strong enough in any particular demographic and with less of an established fan base I’m not sure she gets the votes at the business end.
Cornelia Jakobs
Anders Bagge
Klara Hammarstrom
Liamoo
Medina
John Lundvik
Tone Sekelius
Theoz
Robin Bengtsson
Anna Bergendahl
Cazzi Opeia
Faith Kakembo
I’m expecting Cornelia to come through relatively comfortably and I’m cool with that after getting involved in the last few days. A shock Klara victory that looks highly unlikely now would be an acceptable alternative. Anders would be amusing but costly at this point should my position stay the same in play. Otherwise, I’m looking out for that last place spot and a couple of small h2hs based on my rankings.
Best of luck to anyone involved and enjoy the show!