Never Go Back?

With one of the most anticipated returns in Eurovsion on the cards in Mans Zelmerlow’s Melodifestivalen participation looking a done deal, I’m taking the opportunity to look back at the previous winners who have returned to the contest since televoting was introduced.

Carola

The first winner to return post 2000 (as far as I can see, feel free to correct me in the comments below) will also prove to be something of an exception to a broader rule, achieving a very strong result a considerable time period later, under an entirely different scoring system.

Charlotte Perelli

An AI would probably struggle to explain how Hero suffered such a big drop-off in outcome compared to Invincible. Vibes alone can be powerful however with Perelli far less of a voteable presence and there’s deficiencies in vocal and staging. Maybe more importantly, 2008 saw a far more congested field for an uptempo female with the trident of 'Shady Lady’, ‘Secret Combination’ and ‘Qele Qele’ - 3 potential winners in their own right unfortunate to have each other as competition doing this no favours at all and the schlager differentiation not pulling its weight. Notably- this was a jury save in it’s semi facing only one of those there but from the death slot of 2.

Niamh Kavanagh

I don’t think there’s too much to analyse with this one as on all parts expectations seem to have been realistic and there wasn’t the thought of challenging again here despite/due to sending a similar package to what brought Ireland their 90’s success. It’s For You was a nice throwback and refresher in the evening. 62 jury points and just 15 from the televote for a place of 23rd in the old scoring system is still probably a little disappointing but not surprising.

Lena

Looking back, Lena's attempted title defence is even more of a unique case study with no-one in the decade plus since trying the same. Watching the 2011 contest today, 'Taken By A Stranger' feels like an underachiever coming 10th in the field, particularly on the jury side (104 pts). Perhaps it was ahead of it's time or more likely much of the competition has aged like milk. Conclusions here depend on your opinion of the raw strengths of the package: Would this have done better were it not a host entry/Lena never to have shown up in 2010? Or did a repetitive song with fancy window dressing do better than it should have, perhaps helped by the name recognition, spotlight and success of Satelite? Maybe both can be true and the net impact was insignificant.

Dana International 

Lena was not the only former winner in Dusseldorf although those who watched the final only can be forgiven for not spotting 1998's victor. Question my credentials if you will, but this was my first time watching Ding Dong for the purposes of this review. My impression was of a flat vocal, average song (certainly dated today and closer to 2006-7 type entries) that struggles being multilingual.

That’s Not How You Write A Song

Alexander Ryback

Alongside Loreen and Mans Zelmerlow, Alexander Ryback is part of something of a modern era Holy trinity in my view of winners that it was feltbmay be able to repeat the feat. Whilst some of his 2009 records have gone, these have been to acts that have been more of a moment in time such as Salvador Sobral and Kalush Orchestra. Ryback's "That's how you write a song" was however debuted to a pretty disappointing reaction. Over the season these initial doubts were forgotten with 2018 being considered an open year in the build up to the final. A belief that his charisma and showmanship might be able to win over the televote whilst jurors could show some name respect led to him being matched in the 8s at his peak. 

Ultimately, Ryback was still considered a 'possible outside contender' rather than frontrunner and went on to finish in a lowly 15th. Whilst that has to come with a semi-final win caveat suggesting a big running order effect, there was plenty of evidence our charming Scandi man had been overestimated, or at least could not get away with an entry more suited to Junior Eurovision. 

Stuck on two with Tattoo

Loreen

The most recent and most notable entrant on our list, and presumably part of the inspiration behind a Mans return to Melfest, Loreen is by far the highest achiever of all the recent returnees and only the second two time champion, behind Johnny Logan. Loreen’s two victories in 2012 and 2023 share many similarities in terms of an almighty jury score, technically impressive stage show, and main opposition being a feel-good party anthem in Party for Everybody and Cha Cha Cha. The incredibly slick Swedish package was more than sufficient to do the job twice.

Taking all of these recent returning champions together we see a top 10 placement of 43%, a top 5 placement at 29% and the win at 14%. There is an average placement drop however of, wait for it, around 14 places depending on how you allocate an NQ.

That's Still Not How You Write A Song

It’s also worth mentioning that Emmelie De Forest and Duncan Laurence are our two former winners (as singers) who've had recent attempts at penning an entry. A 15th place and an ignominous NQ are hardly the strongest endorsements. In the same way, plotting the results of all Thomas G:Son's entries would give a very mixed picture too. 'Dream Team' members Dimitris Kontopoulos, Fokas Evangelinos and Fillip Kirkorov have experienced most of the possible results, and notable Eurovision names Borislav Milanov, Sasha Jean Baptist and Hans Pannecouke have had incredible highs and embarrassing lows. I think it's fair to conclude that the name or status of the writers/producers/artistic directors etc carries close to no weight and their work is even more judged in isolation.

It’s Not All About Winning

I wanted to also highlight some notable names and returnees who did not take the title at their first effort. For this, I'm looking at previous TOP 3 (on their first attempt) acts as expanding further would dilute what we are trying to assess. 

Here we have:

Selma (2nd in 1999, NQ in 2005)

Chiara (3rd in 1998, 2nd in 2005, 22nd in 2009)

Ira Losco (2nd in 2002, 12th in 2016)

Helena Paparizou (3rd in 2001*; 1st in 2005)

Zeljko Joksimovic (2nd in 2004; 3rd in 2012)

Sakis Rouvas (3rd in 2004; 7th in 2009)

Dima Bilan (2nd in 2006; 1st in 2008)

Paula Sellig and Ovi (3rd in 2010; 12th in 2014)

Waylon (2nd in 2014*; 18th in 2017)

Sergey Lazarev (3rd in 2016; 3rd in 2019)

Mahmood (2nd in 2019, 6th in 2022*)

*Paparizou as part of Antique, Waylon as part of The Common Linnets, Mahmood brought Blanco along. 

Here we also have two entrants in Helena Paparizou and Dima Bilan who have gone on to win after previously featuring high up the scoreboard.

These acts land in the top 10 54% of the time, the top 5 46% of the time and have at least matched their result 30% of the time. On average, these acts have finished 7.3 places lower, putting them (far) ahead of previous winners on all counts.

Another quick observation is that time seems to be an influencer here, with the biggest drop offs being seen on the longer gaps. Of course, many of these artists were also affected by scoring system changes but on the whole that looks statistically irrelevant

The lessons

I'd say the main factor in making a successfull return is time. We know at the contest and in the music world in general, trends and tastes aren't permanent and the cultural environment shifts quite rapidly. Tying into this is also age, visual appeal and a related sense of age appropriateness - something I’d suggest harmed Perrelli, Ira Losco and Paula and Ovi in particular. You could debate whether the still fresh faced Ryback was also a bit of a victim here.

The natural comparison circling back to Mans here is fellow Swede Danny Saucedo who's Melfest effort last year was widely derided for being out of date. Had he dropped 'Happy That You Found Me in 2013 with a proper stage show he’d surely have brought Sweden a strong top 10 result - perhaps higher - on home soil. It's also worth mentioning fellow former Melfest winners Eric Saade, Robin Bengtsson and rumoured rival John Lundvik here too who have all flattered to deceive in attempts to return to the contest. Yes, Sweden have a habit of picking heartthrob types and the teen girl vote is strong, but the trend has been towards a different one each time

Also in general, those making a quicker return without deviating much in style have been more successful. Casual fans’ memories are also short, and with few exceptions a runner up or even winner from a decade ago isn't nearly as exciting to them as it is in the community and names such as Kalomira (Greece ‘08) and Yohanna (Iceland '11) that still occasionally get brought up in rumours carry no significance beyond certain song expectations or performance levels.

Which brings us to the second factor: people like an underdog. This was exemplified of course with Kaarijaa storming the public vote vs Loreen and even topping Eurovision fan polls, the same community to whom Loreen has been an undisplaceable queen to for over a decade. Baby Lasagna's “turned down at Dora to overall favourite” is a similar easy narrative to pedal, as was Ukraine's record 2022 haul in part playing into an extreme version of this. Israeli televoters last year and the potential Bashar Murad fans would have both been motivated by similar feelings too: a need to support and a call to vote.

“Hey, that guy who's won before wants another to join the woman who's won twice from that country that's always winning” is a hard angle to sell. Record breaking and equaling can be interesting sure, but it doesn't generate votes in the way even an ‘unfinished business’ narrative can.

With Mans in particular, he has remained far more in the Eurovision spotlight than others popping up in hosting roles and intervals helping him to remain in casual's minds. Notably missing the return to Sweden in 2024 is with hindsight perhaps partially an attempt to balance that recognition with appearing more fresh and not part of the furniture.

How does this all play out? My assumption is that Mans starts around 2s-2.5 to win in melfest (with the other current rumoured names + typical lineup assumptions) with him on late in the last heat. Those chances seem about right. It’s not a done deal even assuming the intent is serious and not just an effort at some exposure. Of course even Loreen, the one strong indicator for Mans, failed at her first return attempt in 2017, and by a big margin.

Should Mans get to Eurovision with a package able to come through Melfest it would be difficult to see him out of the Top 5 but once again he and Sweden may be relying on the juries doing most of the work with increasing a public vote as a previous winner completely unprecedented. In fact, every act we have stats on has seen a huge fall in public support, including Loreen.