Threading The Needle

So we have covered our jury win lower televote scenario focusing on Italy, before going for the reverse with Croatia and The Netherlands as the main examples used but there are two more methods yet to be discussed: the first requires little maths in having the televote winner and jury winner be one and the same - even I won't attempt to overcomplicate that. The one final method then is to not win either, aka pulling a Jamala. Prime candidates to do so this year may indeed once more be Ukraine with the other 4 favourites more obviously contending to come top on one side of the vote.

The problem with this method is you are inherently capped. Obviously, if you are placing 2nd with either constituency you are far less likely to be receiving a massive score. This is particularly relevant on the jury side where the highest second placer with them has received 278pts (average 219). The juries have created the bigger 1st-2nd deficits but as a consequence are only really able to push 1 entry. The average televote 2nd placer is at 265 pts with highs in the 300s- so still very strong figures.

Taking the average points given to the jury second placers and adding that to the televote 2nd placers of each year gives us an average score of 468pts. Adjusted for the slightly smaller than average this year than in our data would give us a rough estimate of 451 pts.

That is a very interesting number as it is exactly the mark I am personally expecting to be a winning threshold so that is the first test passed, narrowly.

The second test is in ensuring that the entry that beats you in the jury and the one that beats you in the televote are different. The main outlier year in our stats is 2017 where Kristian Kostov had the misfortune of coming up against Salvador Sobral and obviously if some other entry is 1st in both, you are finished.

Ideally, what you need is a toilet break winning the jury vote and critical poison winning the televote, as seen in 2019. If Ukraine were to come 2nd or 3rd with both they would likewise wish for Latvia to come out on top with the juries and Finland storm the televote. This is because of the very significant gap to each place that can be expected. We have seen lows of just 2 points each side but the average jury 1st placer is 68pts ahead of the second, whilst the average on the televote side is 61 points.

The Math

In short our Ukraine for example would need to score lets say 70 pts more in the televote than the jury winner, whilst avoiding being 70 points behind 1st place in the televote.

This year does seem set up for something like that to happen and it's indeed the most common prediction over at X (including lower variations). Whether it is an Italy Jury 2nd/Televote 3rd, or even something such as a Croatia Jury 4th, Televote 2nd, this option is less committal and gives a broad range of possible winners.

Importantly however, that 451 figure assumes that the jury second and televote second are the same entry. I haven't bothered to run the numbers on the other outcomes but they are all going to be lower than this. Since the reintroduction of the juries, the juries and televote have had the same entry in 2nd place just 3 times in the back to back years of 2015, 2016 and 2017 so we are definitely looking at the other 2/3, 3/2, 4/2 type splits taking up a large chunk of any consensus winner outcomes - therefore a lower expected points total and less chance of winning from this method than the initial figure would have indicated.

Conclusions

The two main conditions for this sort of consensus winner to happen are seemingly present: a winning total on the lower side and a big disagreement on the jury 1st- televote 1st. My problem however is that this should not be a country's primary path to victory. If you are backing Switzerland, Italy, Belgium or France you better believe they can be the jury winners and take that average 50-60pt headstart. If you are taking Croatia, The Netherlands and Ukraine you need to see a genuine path to the televote top spot. And finally, this sort of thinking is very ‘of the moment’ particularly on the televote side. If Switzerland, Italy or Ukraine is appealing enough to climb to second or third in the televote, there’s not much reason they can’t climb to first. If Belgium fails to connect, it’s not only finishing 2nd or 3rd with the public its coming 12th. Our current predictions of little consensus right now are just that: predictions. We are too far away from the contest still to take for granted the relatively high size of split that is needed- if it starts looking like the jury winner can get 200 televote points for example this avenue is all but closed already.

So can we lay out any solid expectations from this 3 part series as a whole?

Lets try:

The winner will be in the top 3 of the televote, if not the top 2.

The winner will be in the top 6 of the jury vote, if not the top 5.

The jury can only push 1 entry disproportionately hard (280, 300+ etc), the televote can push 2.

For me, applying these rules really simplifies matters as there are some entries I can just not see achieving this:

Belgium and France look nowhere near a televote top 3 regardless of draw or performance. I’m actually estimating Sweden higher -1st in the draw and all- but Marcus and Martinus being that high in the televote would be a big surprise too. Israel are a tall order to gather enough jury support and a big televote for them is less certain. The conditions for both sides are probably a bit beyond Greece even with an expected strong live.

I do feel therefore that the market has the correct 5 overall at present with Croatia, Ukraine, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Italy. I also believe both Switzerland and Italy would need to win the jury outright with The Netherlands needing to win the televote. I don’t think any of these are a given. If anyone will win without taking either side, I feel it will be one of Croatia or Ukraine (higher jury than Joost, higher televote than Nemo/Mango) and that backup is why I continue to favour those two at present- we’ll see if the coming weeks are able to adjust my opinions before an official pre rehearsal prediction.