EMA, Eurosong, Benidorm Fest and Melodifestivalen Semi 1 Previewed

The first proper super Saturday of the year is upon us with three countries selecting their entry for Basel whilst one of the headline selection shows in Melfest also begins. In addition we have some action over in Latvia and Lithuania but those won't be covered here - sorry Baltic fans.

Let's crack on in trying to predict this evening…

Sweden - Melfest Semi 1

Yes Melodifestivalen is being demoted in these parts this year and won’t be getting it's own seperate article until the final. The songs from this week are the final straw and do test the patience in being so predictable. I shouldn't have said that actually - now I really have to nail the 1-6…

Anyway this year the semi winner will be determined in the age group system, not based on total votes, which should be a help to those targeting the older groups although likely doesn't make a fundamental difference given how SVT have put a clear favourite in each heat. This week’s is regular John Lundvik who is always reliable here. His song should please the base enough and is fast paced and anthem enough to do strongly with every category. He looks a clear first. In second I'll go for Albin Johnson ft. Pa which is a good show opener. Maja Ivarsson who won yesterday's arena poll is tipped to slip down a bit in reality and be joined by Linnea Henrikson. Adrien Maceus is one of the shorter priced last places in recent memory and will struggle. I’ve backed Albin Johnsen in a couple of markets small but overall a not that interested in the outcome here. For what it's worth, Lundvik feels like a 3rd-5th placer in the final.

Prediction:

1. John Lundvik

2. Albin Johnsen ft. Pa

3. Maja Ivarsson

4. Linnea Henrikson

5. Meira Omar

6. Adrien Maceus

Slovenia - EMA 2025

Basically what we seem to have here is a h2h between popular figure Klemen Slakonja and EMA regular/ fandom fav July Jones and the contrast between the two could not be more stark. Klemen's entry is a heartfelt, soppy, retrospective ballad on life and his personal story which he seems determined to still present in his characteristic, jokey fashion. It's a confusing but interesting mix. July has a more technically interesting song with a strong pre chorus that is going straight down the “slay queen” route. Slovenia have previous in selecting both kinds of entry, internally and in national finals.

Opening the door for an upset is the bizarre format of a 100% jury first round to determine the top 2. It’s very possible either or both of these don't even make it to the 100% televote superfinal but I can only assume the juries will a. Go along with Klemen and b. Also pick the “best” song in the lineup. These two are the only ones gathering much interest before the show and probably have the better staging too. If Klemen does make it through the jury round I make him a very strong favourite in a case of overall votability being far higher. The on the nose lyrics and message repetition, whilst criticised online, probably help him here. Im not sure when/if the margin will be revealed but have included anyway.

Prediction:

1. Klemen Slakonja (73%)

2. July Jones (27%)

Belgium - Eurosong 2025

If Slovenia is a two way battle, Belgium has in the last week been characterised more as Red Sebastian’s to lose and he is the reason Belgium remain in the top 4 in the odds for now. Belgium are also choosing by a far more sensible and comprehensive 50/50 jury televote split which reduces the volatility here substantially.

Fan polling between Sebastian and Mentissa has been close but she is expected to be severely handicapped by this being the Flemish broadcaster and majority audience with some domestic polling highlighting that where Sebastian has a convincing lead. Jelle Van Dael's monster is an entry that does enough right to technically threaten but hasn't been received that well with a lack of originality hurting her. Belgium also seem to think they have something with Sebastian (he’s also been given a good running order in 7th) which may mean he won’t be too harshly judged tonight even if I personally worry over his ability to perform and sell this. Honestly, I've not seen much of him beyond this and may be being harsh but I do have him liable to put in a vocal disaster and VRT not to be able to stage this effectively to the point where an upset can happen. I’ve seen odds around 1.25 which don’t appeal given that possibility.

Prediction:

1. Red Sebastian

2. Mentissa

3. Jelle Van Dael

4. Le Manou

5. Grace

6. Leez

7. Lenn

8. Stefanie Callebaut

Spain - Benidorm Fest

I find this the most interesting battle of the evening and the odds reflect that with 4 acts given a good chance. In fact, from Spain revealing the jury and televote top 4s from each semi we can only really rule out Lucas Bun and Mawot whose televotes surely won’t compete. Kuve and Mel Omana could technically feature but from general stats and expectations coming into this can bee fairly safely ruled out.

That brings us to the main 4 and Lachispa appears the least likely for my money, trailing Daniela on views from semi 1 and insticlnctually putting in a performance that the juries (particularly) international ones should not reward. Yes the song is by far the most interesting here but the staging and overall impression lower than the rest. From the contrasting reaction in the arena and online on the night and the views disparity since, I think we also have to assume J KBello is lagging by a distance too in the televote and the performance also doesn't suggest a substantial jury push to rectify that. His hope may come from being the only man in the running and the possibility of Daniela and Melody votes being split.

Those two were almost certainly the televote winners of the respective semi finals and who this likely will be between. This is also where I find it hard to be unbiased and will likely get some hate from the Spanish fans but I find Melody's song and performance the worst of the two by far and of Eurovision last place standard. I just don’t get this one. A likely televote winner, especially how the draw has fallen but we do have 50% jury voting which feels like it could go anywhere. That also means I don’t feel it will be the difference maker so being sensible, I have to predict Melody here.

Prediction:

1. Melody

2. Daniela Blasco

3. J Kbello

4. Mel Omana

5. Lachispa

6. Mawot

7. Lucas Bun

8. Kuve

My Positions

Sweden - Albin Johnsen ft. PA top 2. (Small - choice)

Slovenia - Klemen Slakonja 5~, July Jones lay 1.5 (Small - limited action)

Belgium - None. (Bonus prediction they drift to 18-20 outright, 50+ if not Sebastian)

Spain - Daniela Blasco 5+, Melody 2 (medium)

Enjoy the evening all, I’m unlikely to do much live coverage tonight but if so my thoughts will be on X.