Greece: Ethnikos Telikos Preview
One of the issues in giving a snap judgement on songs immediately on release is that it can easily come back to bite you. Evangelia does not “have this sown up” at all and if anything that applies to Klavdia. I’m surprised by the advantage Klavdia holds in most places as this sort of sound should be up my street but this doesnt do much for me - something I’ll likely end up touching on in a full review… That's not to say Evangelia is particularly impressive either and ‘Vale’ seems a very basic effort for an act who has been pushing her case for a few years. Still, the polling and stats speak for themselves.
Voting will take place with the Greek jury giving a combined set of 12,10, 8 etc, the internationals doing the same and then the televote giving out 24, 20, 16 etc and having the say in the event of a tie. It’s a format that can tighten up a race and increases the risks around having one or two rogue jurors.
Greek juries (or at least the internal ones at ERT) have other the past decade veered wildly between sending something incredibly ethnic (2016, 2018, 2024) and as far removed from sounding Greek as possible (2019, 2022, 2023) but the key trend has been to follow the last year's result it seems. There has been a certain wish to sound Western at times which would open the door to Barbz but since Greece are coming of more of a success last year, my belief is the juries are going to support both of the favourites enough, probably leaning for the less messy Klavdia.
However that only applies to the domestic juries and the international half may well go towards the more accessible Barbz or Andy Nicholas. Overall, my view is that this International jury vote could be the most volatile and unpredictable part of the result.
The televote should be more straightforward and a clear battle between Klavdia and Evangelia. Favourably for Klavdia, the stage looks about the size of a postage stamp and production values are apparently low - theoretically hamstringing Evangelia's ability to put on the necessary spectacle. I think we know what to expect from Klavdia in a way we don't from Evangelia. That is on top of the advantage Klavdia already has in some of the metrics such as YouTube views and fan polling. I don't really think whatever audience ERT will get on the night will make much of a difference either way between the pair but it is worth saying Evangelia is the bigger name and more in line with perceptions of what a “eurovision song” is.
Prediction:
Klavdia 46
Evangelia 37
Barbz 32
Konstantinos/Kostas 27
Andy Nicolas 20
Kostas Ageris 18
Xannova Xan 15
Nafsica 15
Dinamiss 11
Georgina/John 8
Thanos Lambrou 3
Rikki 0
My assumptions in making this prediction is that Klavdia wins the domestic jury, comes 2nd internationally (behind a safer Barbz perhaps) and takes the televote. Evangelia is expected to be second in the televote, 3rd/4th with domestic juries and similar or a spot or two lower with the international. If I have the televote wrong and Klavdia tops that, she still would not be able to win without also swinging some jury support too.
As for any upset, the televote preference makes me look past Barbz and instead towards the Kostas pairing with ‘Paradeisos’. Its a safe conventional entry to Greek tastes and with a bit of a name in Eurovision circles. Perhaps if ratings are low, that + a Cypriot support vote and if the front two dissapoint live this is the next port of call. The performance should be reliable and there is far more jury potential than the disasters to be honest that could be Dinamiss and Xannova Xan. Like I say, I have them 4th so expectations aren't high, but there’s a little more variance here and I don't see why they are 40+ vs the other chasers.
Overall, it should be Klavdia and she seems to have a margin for error too. Odds of under 1.5 are not far off but given this is a new national final we haven't seen plah out before I wouldn't recommend a large involvement.