Green It or Leave It? The Dark Horses of 2025
The debate around the favourites is often divisive. It’s easy to have a strong opinion on one or two of them, and also dismiss a couple more. Your opinion on them is unlikely to change no matter what I argue here, and the pros and cons of all have been very much discussed at this point. If you're trying to make a profit and only entering the game now or have pulled off some amazing trades already, you will also have to pick and choose who to back and who not to.
But what about every other song competing? Have we missed something that could threaten in May and can anything spring up on us from the depths of the exchange?
Let's go through every act available at 100-1+ in current odds and see if there are any cases to be made and were some other insurance may be advised. Note I’ll be considering the win market only here and any potential there - correlation to anything else (Top 10/Top 5) is implied, but i’m not looking at the odds or value there in this.
Ukraine
The case for: Sympathy narrative and diaspora, volatile politics and pricing, has some artsy jury appeal.
The case against: “let’s support Ukraine” not currently high in the news and public awareness, no widespread appeal.
Green it or leave it?
Green it. Won’t win but 100~ is the peak price so far and shouldn't really go beyond that. More room to be pushed back in I’d guess and I’d rather buy now to jettison later if nothing happens. A few Baltic or artsy jury votes first could see this get love live but probably ending in the 6th-10th spots overall.
San Marino
The Case for: Gabry Ponte is one of the more successful and established names of the year, good streaming figures and pre contest exposure, fun televote pleaser, Italy also weaker than usual.
The case against: NF staging and live transition, very little jury appeal, it's San Marino.
Green It or leave it?
Leave It. 50-100 televote points in the final and 20 from the juries would be a realistic good outcome. Pretty much at lowest price now excluding the few hours after it's presence in San Marino was announced.
Malta
The case for: Some pre contest coverage, meme and viral potential, fun but not a complete joke.
The case against: Neutered, Malta's televote struggles, yet to really take off.
Green it or leave it?
Green It. Semi Two is pretty open for something to grab the attention, Miriana feels closer to the top 3 than the odds have her there.
Italy
The case for: Italy's track record, Jury appeal.
The case against: Seems forgettable, jury priorities likely elsewhere. Questionable TV.
Green it or leave It?
Leave It. Tough one but starting to feel this is even left behind by jurors, or at least doesn't receive a push to make it a trade during jury voting. My televote expectations are also very low currently.
Cyprus
The case for: Dream Team of past staging and songwriting successes, pimp slot intrigue (Foureira anyone?), fairly equal appeal.
The case against: Theo Evan's appeal, vote motivation in general, markers a bit too low.
Green it or leave it?
Leave It. Another narrow one, the pimp slot promises but it feels a little too far back on the starting grid for a serious run. May trade lower but not certain on that either.
Australia
The case for: Go-Jo extremely charismatic, Australia's jury support past, memes and viral potential.
The case against: Opening semi suggests good but not contender, Australia traditional TV lag, bad year to try this and reaction not amazing.
Green it or leave it?
Leave It: I do think Milkshake Man is a little overlooked, but it is probay destined to also be so at the contest. Could make an impact but better choices in the win market.
The United Kingdom
The case for: Vocals, jury appeal, unique and current, bit of streaming and meme appeal.
The case against: Song messy, staging could also be, UK's record, low impact.
Green it or leave it?
Leave It - A jury 5th-10th might be the best case scenario and not something I'm banking on, getting a televote higher than 15th a challenge.
Germany
The Case for: Unique, modern, original and authentic, Germany are (were?) taking this seriously, Good spot in semi 2 to showcase
The case against: Lives unconvincing, jury appeal doubtful.
Green it or leave it?
Green It. Chance this really stands out after being showcased in semi 2, flashes of its televote potential, if Raab can fix the staging can outperform expectations. Could be a tele hit or at least look that way so maybe a profitable trade.
Greece
The case for: highly rated in January, emotional potential.
The case against: Live feels flat, past similar entries Underperforming, no real narrative beyond Greeks.
Green It or leave it?
Green It. Some marginal value at 200s, a lot of the ingredients there but very likely to be 15th-17th unless we get a perfect storm.
Ireland
The case for: Sweet, optimistic fun, surprised in Ireland.
The case against: Lazy staging? No jury appeal.
Green it or leave it?
Leave It. Drunk Irish Casuals backing it down to 70s if it qualifies is the only real chance to make anything of this in the win market, and both parts of that equation not to be counted on.
Azerbaijan
The case for: Strong, very competent pop song, Azerbaijan historically good stagers, jury appeal.
The case against: Huge vote drag and awful recent TV track record, too anonymous and middle of the road.
Green it or leave it?
Leave It. I do like this one, but going nowhere and no obvious trading opportunity. Only Q/NQ market up for debate.
Switzerland
The case for: Drawn 19th, Jury appeal, something of a Usp, live potential.
The case against: Lots of French entries, host vote drag, favourites dotted next to it?
Green it or leave it?
Green It. Slam dunk most clear on the list at current odds. Unlikely to have the legs but could hang around in the jury voting and an intimate staging could propel this up.
Lithuania
The case for: Consistent diaspora support, unique yet very competent.
The case against: A bit one note, too niche? without also excelling, juries unreliable.
Green it or leave it?
Leave It. Rock can get a hype train but this might not get much attention. Consider it if it drifts higher or for other markets.
Slovenia
The case for: Very emotional core, easily accessible, mum vote.
The case against: Standard composition and simplistic lyrics turn away many juries, early draw in semi, likely similar treatment if in the final.
Green it or leave it?
Leave it. Could do well, but the metrics and jury voting will never suggest that. Not winning and no exit strategy so again not for the outright market.
Denmark
The case for: Solid pop song, promised staging improvements, good vocal, sympathy vote when Trump nukes Aalborg?
The Case against: Heard many times and better, staging, bad draw, no-ones favourite trap.
Green it or leave it?
Leave it. Like Azerbaijan the only market for this is to qualify or not.
Norway
The case for: Very competitive stats and indicators, general fan appreciation, strong live, Nordic support boost.
The case against: Also offers nothing new and surely doesn't stand out enough? Consistently liked more than loved?
Green it or leave it?
Green it. Not something I believe in but outperforming 500-1+ everywhere. Could come out of the semi with good metrics, trading opportunity perhaps.
Poland
The case for: Could have won in 2005, Justyna is a legend, diaspora.
The case against: 20 years out of date, probably not in a throwback way either. Jury poison even with good performance.
Green it or leave it?
Leave it. Like Slovenia, not one with a chance or hope of shortening much.
Serbia
The case for: Objectively not a hundred times worse than Zeljko as odds have it. Fan hate unwarranted. Good performer.
The case against: Diaspora and Bloc votes less predictable than usually, contest has moved on.
Green it or leave it?
Leave it. Marginally. 1000+ is harsh but also hard to profit from. Hope some Balkan juries are up first? Maybe worth a look elsewhere.
Armenia
The case for: Fitting lyrics and narrative on off chance a naughty neighbour tries something before May.
The case against: Messy melfest reject song, Parg is better than this.
Green it or leave it?
Leave it.
As for the rest, (Spain, Latvia, Montenegro, Portugal, Georgia and Iceland) I have neither a backhanded complement or far fetched sympathy narrative to give them. These are all entries for whom qualifying and/or escaping the bottom 5 would be wins.
Wrap Up
So in order the ones to take for me are - in order of best to worst - Switzerland, Germany, Malta, Ukraine, Norway, Greece. With my main criteria being either strong televote indicators likely, or a possible jury push I think these are the ones to consider. Not all of these will happen, perhaps none will, but that is the shortlist.