Semi Final Running Orders Released
Last night saw the draws for each of our semi finals released giving us some conversation points this Friday and allowing us to really start predicting the semi outcomes. Let’s have a quick run through the songs in order and see what if anything has changed…
Semi One
Iceland to open was a pretty universal pick and yeah, fun, uptempo, unchallenging party starter. Not really learned anything here as it was such an obvious call. Poland in second makes sense in the newer interpretations of the "death slot". Decent songs from diaspora countries find themselves there more and more but this is still a very intense performance to put on so early. Third has been sharing more of the death slot connotations in recent years and it's where Klemen from Slovenia finds himself. I thought he'd go later, but I also thought he'd be sandwiched between both Sweden and Estonia so he's dodged one bullet but not the other. Feels early for this, but it does feel earnest too. Estonia headline this mini section and nothing massively surprising here. I had them a bit later but understandable more distance was wanted to Sweden. Spain sandwich in 5th as predicted.
Ukraine start the next batch and nothing to say here. Middling treatment is probably expected throughout and is fair. Sweden follow going almost as late as possible. Portugal get the final spot here which is a bit of a surprise but not one I think really helps much, feels like filler after KAJ. Norway technically start the second half but in practice close the first half. Nothing gained here. Belgium I expected as the closer and going here isn't great news with a key rival prioritised instead. Looking very shaky. Italy are our big 5 here and slow the pace back down.
Everyone in the last section will be pretty happy to be here. Azerbaijan are just about alive in the qualification race and this draw doesn't really improve their chances, or condemn them. San Marino were an option to close but will take this draw. Quite close to Italy so they'll be hoping Italian viewers tuning in for Corsi will stick around for this (or will viewers tuning in for Gabry have to wait through him?). Albania are next and it's a solid draw for them. On paper, Netherlands have been set up favourably but my campaign of not really getting this continues and it feels a bit lacking after the intensity of 'Zjerm' though to others it is probably a good palatte cleanser. Odds will probably make it a battle between the pair for the last top 3 spot. The clean palatte the Netherlands just gave us is immediately took away by Croatia's 'Poison Cake' which interestingly was not buried earlier. A massive shock follows now with the host country having the latest draw of the three automatics for the second year in a row, with Switzerland being even more brazen and pushed into penultimate slot overall. Not competing, but still. Further proof the random host country draw for the final is essential. Cyprus close the show and are the big winner from this. They were one of three options and will have been glad to get the green light. Was already fancying this over Belgium but that flip has really swung it to Theo and we'll see if any substantial staging is coming.
Semi Two
Australia opening semi 2 is a bit of a surprise to me. Either they are happy to lean in to this opening and it's female counterpart closing or Go-Jo is going kiddy friendly with a more innocent staging and an ice cream van on stage. I've had somd niggling doubts on qualification (75% in rather than 90%+) but this sets a decent standard that might not be passed for a while in this position. Whereas semi 1 has thrown the modern curved ball interpretation of the death slot, Montenegro is the traditional pick. I didn't think returning would mean a great draw gift (and nor should it) but there is a bit of a middle ground. This is more like a middle finger. Wasn't qualifying anyway but this just feels like an unnecessary alienation of yet another eastern country and other options were available. Ireland follow, not a bad position on its own in this run but hopefully isn't symbolic of a lazy/cheap staging that could be trusted to open. On second thoughts regarding 2nd, Latvia is probably too bad to put there. 4th doesn't help or hurt whatever their slim chance of qualifying is. Armenia is pretty naff too and this first half is very back loaded. Austria mirror other joint favourites Sweden in performing in 6th. I'm assuming the first break comes after the pair so it's equal, decent treatment as expected and JJ is being set up to dominate this mini section.
The UK are the first of the automatics here and it's not the biggest sign of confidence in them, or strongest launchpad, but again, not massively relevant. Greece and Lithuania both bring some intense native language energy next and playoff each other well. They'll be happy to have dodged a potential 2nd/3rd draw - Greece in particular who have solidified themselves somewhat in my book. Malta are the semi 2 act technically bumped into the first half but I think this is a strong slot for them and a bit of a breath of fresh air at this stage. It's also followed by the least fancied entry of the competition in Georgia so beyond the pimp slot I don't think they could have done much better even if this is on the early end. Even worse news for Mariam is France following them which completely blows what they are trying out of the water.
Denmark are not being offered much help in their battle to end their NQ streak with Sissal opening the final section. Like Azerbaijan, in semi 1 they feel just about in touch but needing upsets and a massive staging improvement. Denmark into Czechia into Luxembourg doesn't really offer much to comment on actually and this whole trio feel a little like filler, but that's not to dismiss their chances, particularly of the latter duo. These are solid entries but nothing remarkable. Israel follow and it's a solid draw. Yuval does have the chance to bring some emotion here after the previous three. Germany might not be favoured overall out of the automatics (correctly I feel) but could post the best post semi tele indicators and their slot here is pretty good, 'Baller' really stands out amongst two of the more dated entries of the whole event. Serbia have an on paper surprisingly good draw this late but do feel overshadowed by both that were just on and what is yet to come (pun intended). I don't think their score has really moved up or down from that 40-55 ballpark. Finland close the show making it two from two for the Sergio Jaen staged entries where that was possible - Austria to close the final anyone? This always looked pretty likely to end the show and I won't argue with that decision. We know what to expect here making it a provisional strong contender for the semi win, but this is a competitive, hard to call group of songs.
Overall impressions
In looking at what I expected from the running orders, and combining that with any relevance on either qualification or other semi chances I think the following are the big winners and losers:
Cyprus go from likely qualifier to almost sure qualifier and are undoubtedly the biggest winner.
Belgium take a big step back in not getting that pimp slot and provisionally feel in trouble.
Greece go from borderline to likely in.
Lithuania go from qualifier to potential semi top 3.
Denmark go from borderline out to very likely out.
Israel semi win chances improve.
Some countries have absolute better or worse treatment, but those are the only countries where my thoughts have really changed to any real degree. My full predictions and previews for each semi and how those alterations play in will be coming in the next month.