Pre-Rehearsal Semi Final One Preview

This feels the far easier semi final to predict out of the pair, both in terms of a top 3 order I am happy with, and more countries that look set to be qualifiers (8 relatively sure and above).

I will throw in the small caveat I don't think anything is entirely dead here however whereas that does look the case for at least 1 in semi two, possibly more.

I'll work my way from 15th place to 1st...

15th Iceland

Always the likely opener but when you play through the semi in full you release just how forgotten this ends up being. Would likely make it through as the show closer but with Estonia and Sweden doing the zany fun better and later in that half I can't make a case for this to gather enough points.

14th Croatia

Slovenia, the late draw and the slither of a chance Bosnians could join Croatians in a diaspora vote keeps 'Poison Cake' from being entirely wrote off, although the case isn't great. There's a lot of room for improvement from Dora and I've seen a bit of support for this which just about gives it more points than Iceland I think.

13th Azerbaijan

We get a bit more likely now but Azerbaijan's recent track record is appalling. No in built support and the tag may be a barrier more than anything. I'd like to see Mamagama through but realistically this is probably missing out through being everyone's 4th-10th favourite, but not earning enough votes. Has a chance if staging can make this stand out and a bit more volatility in projecting points than others. For now, I have this on the lower end of things.

12th Portugal

Running through the maths on the countries here I have Portugal making one of the bigger steps forward from my initial expectations and this has a different vibe to much of the competition. I think there's a path to 30+ points with this calling out to the diaspora which is dotted around a few countries, but that extra 10-15 which may be necessary to qualify may be difficult, although we're well within the margin of error.

11th Belgium

Belgium have a real tendency to underperform and have seen a few NQ's that at one point or another were highly fancied and this would be yet another. I do think this is incredibly close but the combination of that record, the fandom abandoning this, the pretty poor draw with a key rival in the pimp slot and my own "something is just a bit off" vibe does have me leaning out. Not a confident call and if this just easily scored 70+ I wouldn't be too shocked but overall, I’m predicting much lower currently.

10th Slovenia

Poor Klemen has remained pretty unloved by the fandom all season and has been given a bad slot in 3rd. I've always felt this has casual, hidden mum-vote appeal but I'm less bullish on this qualifying than previously and the draw really does hurt him. Overall he's a relatable performer I feel and fits a gap here so I just give him the edge of Belgium.

9th San Marino

I'm giving this the benefit of the doubt based on pre contest exposure in a number of voting countries here (obviously Italy being the main one). I do worry maybe more than for any other country how this looks on stage. Bordeine in as doesn't need to do a whole lot on paper.

8th Norway

Little to say on this. Everyone seems to like it a decent amount, some scandi support. Would not be touching current Q odds - I'd rather take the longshot odds on top 10, 15 etc if you like this. Not something to bank on but likely is comfortable enough and makes the first entry that feels like a pretty common Q prediction where there isn't a lot of debate.

7th Poland

Assumptions Poland's diaspora would get them through last year stung me but Justyna is surely far better at getting the votes to come through, as well as being a reliable performer anyway. Early 2000s ethno-bop throwback angle has some potential too. Pretty likely qualifier.

6th Cyprus

Pimp slot and staging rumours put this into the very sure pile, up from borderline in post release. I do like this song but it's a tough semi and easy to get carried away with some of the hype. I'm not seeing anything in the pipeline to dramatically push this higher for now but this is a good outcome.

5th Netherlands

I think people will zig or zag whether this works great as an easily accessible song with universal appeal, or something that doesn't stand out enough. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. It's not the second most secure qualifier as the odds have it, but I don't see it missing out obviously and I feel this can maybe sneak into triple digits here, but probably won’t land in the top 3.

4th Ukraine

I have a lot of conflicting feelings with Ukraine this year and overall I do think we are looking at their lowest televote this decade, but still a strong one clearly. I expect the diaspora to be more motivated too in a semi final context (ensure it qualifies) than in the final where priorities and attention might shift, if this remains being seen as not having a chance at victory. Feels like an absolute floor of 70pts here, probably gets past 100.

3rd Albania

Albania feels very well drawn and stands out a lot in this semi (and lineup overall). Not seen this mentioned much so I'll throw it in here but the old Sanremo adage of "nicer with the orchestra" can also be applied here. Some of the safety Swiss talk over lack of pyro also not ideal and we’re still waiting on Kole to really sell his part. I do think this can resonate outside the fandom enough and has more about it than The Netherlands or Ukraine in pushing for that top 3 spot.

2nd Estonia

I don't think Tommy's success is 100% guaranteed still but I think it's very likely. Just a silly infectious, memorable song with a tonne of staging potential. Joost/Kaarijaa revenge narrative is big bubble talk and way less relevant with KAJ in the competition but there is a fan base and name recognition to consider. Still waiting for a live performance with all the bells and whistles thrown at it which I expect to elevate this. Should be comfortablely in the top 3.

1st Sweden

Very short priced favourite for the semi but that feels fair and hard to back against. We know what we are getting here and it looks like a televote behemoth, given as good a slot as possible. I don't really buy the "too regional" argument either and this should be getting 7/8+ everywhere. Only something truly iconic can stop them here imo.

My current thoughts and rough math is below:

I’ve got a big number at the top for Sweden and Estonia and whilst it might not end up being that dramatic, I'm pretty happy they will be the top 2 and likely dominate the post semi stats.

In the borderline question it is primarily 2 from San Marino, Slovenia and Belgium for me, although Portugal or Azerbaijan can also make it without being too big of a surprise.

Stay tuned for the look at Semi 2 in the coming days.