Sanremo 2025: Updated Preview
Festival di Sanremo starts tonight with a mammoth show in which all 29 competing entries will be debuted so strap yourselves in for a long one.
It’s been over a month since I’ve last commented on this with the blind preview and since then, as always, much has changed. A substantial number of press and production crew have had access to the songs and we have plenty of reviews and opinions to work with.
Firstly, from all the consensus, this is still a very open year and no one has really stepped up to the plate with a song that has wowed everyone: there is no standout best here apparently. The second issue is that those receiving the best reviews - Simone Cristicchi namely - are seen as pretty irrelevant in the winner discussion still and quite frankly he (or Brunori Sas) have a huge and probably insurmountable handicap on the televote.
Giorgia was the tip a month ago and is the best reviewed from those early favourites. She also works for a different demographic to many of the others and should be able to hang in there in the televote with the onslaught of rappers and heartthrobs. The jury might not have ultimate power like last year due to a change in ranking methodology (Shout out to Davide Maistrello on X for his dive into the maths here) but she should still hold the advantage there. If the year remains as lacking in consensus as currently that may still be decisive.
Olly (who was third in my earlier prediction) is favourite in many places now. There is a gradual momentum with him and although not blowing away in any review is surely strong enough to walk into the top 5.
Achille Lauro has solidified himself 3rd in the odds today with a bit of a move on him, suggesting some informed backing. His attempt this year with a serious ballad rather than a shock-factor gimmick is why I was more cautious on him than usual to begin with. It is a move that has gone down well.
Irama is still hanging around and there is little new to add with him. On the one hand reviews don’t suggest this entry is any better than previous ones, but on the other he is also less handicapped by those unenthused reviewers. Song pending, still more 4th-7th in my view.
I’ve already touched on Cristicchi who is also way down in the odds to genuine contender levels. Personally, he'll probably have to settle for the Critic's Award where he looks nailed on.
Fedez has also shortened massively with a bit of good old fashioned celebrity love triangle nonsense flying around. There is more of a spotlight on him once again and does have a lot of support to call on though any “sympathy” vote or similar feels like a reach and I don’t think much has fundamentally changed.
Noemi has been receiving positive reviews but we’ve been here a few times and this isn't a field or rule set that helps her.
Elodie, Francesca Michelin and Francesco Gabbani were some early fancied acts to a varying degrees and all look like non runners now as is longshot tip Clara.
Rocco Hunt is another who has seen a drift in the odds but I think he remains very relevant here, set apart as more of a good guy compared to some other rivals. If he can receive something of a southern boost, even to a quarter of Geolier levels he could be dangerous and there may be enough for juries to go along with too.
Tony Effe and Shablo ft. Joshua/Tormento have also got some better than expected reviews in places and are value longshot options.
Prediction
To me the top 5 will be comprised of:
Giorgia
Olly
Two of (Irama, Achille, Rocco)
The best from (Fedez, Tony Effe, Shablo).
Its not a particularly fancy or out of line prediction.
Personally, Irama and Fedez are the two my book really does not want to see, nor do I wish to see the televote fall in love with Cristicchi.
Reminder that the results at the end of tonight’s show are just journalist/tv press rankings and only the top 5 in a random order will be shown. This will probably be a very different ranking to what the final top 5 ends up as on Saturday.