Super Saturday #2 :UMK, Vidbir, MESC and Supernova Previewed

We are back this week with four more songs set to be given tickets to Basel including Ukraine and Finland who are both in the top 10 in the odds currently. There are also heats in Iceland and Lithuania but I’ll just make the one brief stop in Sweden for heat 2 of Melfest before we look at the finals…

Sweden - Melodifestivalen Heat #2

Much like the big returning name last week strolled into first place, similar is expected here with Klara Hammarstrom. On and On and On is a votable package that has broad appeal and overall it feels like a 2nd-4th placer. The move from 18s to 6s is a fair correction to provisional second fav but this is very unlikely to beat whatever Måns has. The second direct qualifier is not easy to call with Kaliffa a bit below expectations for me, whilst Nomi Tales might have an outside chance. Erik Segerstedt has a very typical Melfest package and is the guess here. Schlagerz should be last and is surely too unappealing to anyone below the age of 85.

Prediction:

1. Klara Hammarstrom

2. Erik Segerstedt

3. Nomi Tales

4. Kaliffa

5. Fredrik Lundman

6. Schlagerz

Ukraine Vidbir

- My advice here is to stay well away from this national final. Masha Kondratenko comes in as favourite and does have the best song in my opinion but we are still very unclear on what sort of staging or live performance to get from any act.

The second problem with Vidbir is their insane 1-12 jury/ televote conversion with the jury being the tiebreaker. It's a format which gives a lot of power to just 3 people, and past results have shown the volatility of this. Basically, if Jamala takes a disliking to a favourite they have a big uphill battle.

Ziferblat are second favourites here but their entry doesn't fit the typical (wartime) mood compared to Masha or the rest even if every act's lyrics have some allusions. Honestly, even without considering Ukraine's current predicament Bird of Prey isn't the usual vidbir winning sound. Fiinka is given a reasonable chance in the odds too and has some momentum but I'll assume the juries will prevent that - needing it's wildcard and all. My prediction will follow the consensus but it's not a certain one. Everything does point towards Masha but this is the sort of NF things can change very quickly.

Prediction:

1. Masha Kondratenko 24

2. Ziferblat 20

3. FIINKA 15

Latvia - Supernova

I've not followed this one much but it is one of the stronger Supernova editions I can remember. Even Markus Riva is s'alright. The dynamic in this one is of Emilijia presumably being the LTV/Jury pick and having taken a bit of a surprise semi final televote victory. Tautumeitas and The Ludvig are practically insepperable in the odds with her due to an expectation we'll see some big differences from the Semi. Supernova also shares the awkward one set of jury points and one set of televote points that vidbir does, albeit with the public deciding. Overall, I think there is slightly more pointing towards The Ludvig getting the points there and he seems the happy medium between national identity and mainstream sound so I'll go for him.

Prediction

1. The Ludvig 22

2. Tautumeitas 20

3. Emilija 20

Malta - MESC2025

Based on general reactions, opinions and what stats I can find to me this is mainly between Miriana Conte and Kristy Spiteri. Miriana was unfortunate to randomly draw to open the show whilst Kristy has been given the best slot possible in 15th. Malta is a small but engaged community so this might not be the deadly for Miriana but this is a long final too and can only be a negative. She is leading on views and in pre contest hype but Kristy may benefit from a more hidden vote. That also applies to Kantera and Dario Bezzina but they haven't been treated as well as possible in the draw suggesting lower jury appeal. I'm actually a bit vague on the exact points system tonight but it appears to be a 50/50 split. If jurors are being tactical to achieve their best result Miriana could still come through but I do fear Malta are going to make the wrong call and end up as a likely NQ with Heaven Sent. This is also not a confident prediction but I will lean to Kristy.

1. Kristy Spiteri

2. Miriana Conte

3. Kantera

Finland - UMK

On paper the most predictable national final of the evening due to the 75% televote and fact the public don't need as much second guessing. With Finland being restricted from voting for a crazy rock song, Erika Vikman has been given a massive opening to take the victory here with all the hype on her side. Worth remembering she was pipped in 2020 however and the balance between suitably tacky and plain un-voteable is a tricky one for 'Ich Komme'. Being alone on stage can make this a hard sell until we reach the quite literal climax of this with her riding a giant microphone. I’m not sure what jurors make of this but like Windows95man however, even a last place might not stop her. This format means anything around 33% of the televote/a 5% lead is pretty much a guarantee of winning. Vikman is probably somewhere around there.

Goldilocks is hands down the next best alternative (arguably outright the best) with a great little catchy pop song and some cool looking staging which looks more TV focused than Erika's arena pleasing banger. Even then, reactions have not been too dissimilar and there is some hope for the upset.

I don’t think that will come at the hands of Viivi however and the other 3 in this final are competent, but all impossible looking longshots. Can they congested the televote enough to make the jury vote more important?

Overall, I've ran some numbers based on my expectations which gives Erika a narrow win. Perhaps i’m underestimating the casual appeal and she’s more comfortable in the end but we will see. Goldilocks the value option and considering #JuriesExist in a Eurovision final might be the better choice.

Prediction:

1. Erika Vikman 340

2. Goldilocks 325

3. Viivi 207

4. Nelli 111

5. Neea River 104

6. costee 89

My Positions

Some small stakes on either Erik or Nomi to qualify in Sweden. Break even on Erika in Finland with a large green on Goldilocks. No direct interest in the other events.