Sanremo Finals Night Preview
This is a very unpredictable Sanremo with at least 3 names who look to be level in the race for me. They are the previously highly rated Giorgia and Olly who are now joined by Fedez. I think these are also the only certainties to make it into the top 5. Simone Cristicchi is still respected but doesn't look as strong as the week is going on. Lucio Corsi, Irama, Achille Lauro and Brunori Sas look like the other names in with a chance at the top 5 and theoretically still in with a shot. I'll go through each in turn...
Giorgia has been the consistent tip here and her victory last night has allowed her to regain market favouritism. I don't know if that move is quite warranted actually with a slot in the middle of the draw (Sanremo's version of the pimp slot for Eurofans) and Annalisa alongside her. A good sign yes but not a surprise. Elsewhere in the stats she's also doing what she should be to be competitive, lagging on some of the younger demographic metrics a tad vs Fedez and Olly but holding up well, whilst doing better on Facebook and the like and with an assumed more hidden vote. She is also the only female anywhere close to the running should this count for anything and will have been racking up a good score in the jury rankings which may yet have an impact if there is not much in it on the televote. I'm kind of where I was with her although personally I felt she looked far better on night 1 than night 2.
Olly has really not impressed me in any performance or with the song in general. His stats are also a mixed bag but his Instagram following in particular is very impressive whilst he's put in some huge numbers on spotify and took a lead there. His fan base are into this and if they are actually voting too and not just streaming and clicking like for free he is very dangerous. I also cannot understate what a difference performing on the far less congested night 2 could make and he may well be in the lead currently thanks to that. I don't think this is a good enough package to hit outside the demographic much which is why he’s been overlooked for much of the week. This mainly comes down to mobilisation of his existing fanbase I feel and getting to 4th last night in the covers, again without impressing is a good sign.
Fedez was never really considered here but he is the act who has impressed me the most, it's a very powerful song and performance and also sustained it's impact on night 2 for me. He's climbed to top of the YouTube views of Sanremo performances and he’s behind only Olly on spotify. Another positive for him is that Tony Effe in particular + Rocco Hunt/Shablo are seemingly flopping as well as a certain Mr. Killa already having been DQ'd. The ever strong rap scene at Sanremo may be being completely dominated by Fedez. His third place last night in covers was good considering the time he was on and controversial angle. I think he’s the likeliest televote winner tonight with the question being if by enough and if that is enough. A caveat is that one way or another Sanremo's exciting rap entries have been pipped the last two years, as were the Fedez and Michielin pair in '21.
Simone Cristicchi
The "marathon not a sprint" nature of Sanremo may not be working out for Cristicchi. These things can go either way as an underdog coming into the event with the week helping to build momentum and narrative but in this instance interest seems to have peaked early. It's something I suspected with this relying entirely on emotional lyrics and it's hard to get that visceral response by the time of the 4th performance. His early big YouTube lead has gone with him now in a narrow third place there suggesting people aren't going back for repeat viewings at the same pace. Spotify stats and the like are naturally lower than other competitors but failing to even make the top 10 in the covers is a concern and suggests people aren't buying into him. Can something relying almost entirely on lyrics win overall. I doubt it now and the popularity contest angle of this looks set to hold him back.
Lucio Corsi is actually other evidence against him showing how the public can slowly buy into the artist over the week and use a cover night well even if that's not tied to the result. Topo Gigio and Nel Blu is a bit of a cheat code so let's not get carried away with last night's second place and I don't consider him part of the winning race, but he is in the top 5 discussion. Stats are good and strong for him but nothing explosive and the song is not a standout either.
Irama was greatly improved on his second showing making the top 5 and had a solid covers night. Another greatly helped by going on the Thursday instead of Wednesday and like Olly his army of fans could have gave him a good result there which sets him up for a top 5 push. Stats are not were they should be but consistent record here makes me think he could sneak his way to the end of the night, where he becomes irrelevant again.
Achille Lauro has an outside chance of top 5 but has to hope the emergence of Corsi quickly stops and Cristicchi falls of a cliff tonight. More of an afterthought now and set for 7-10th, similar to last night's covers.
Brunori Sas has a better chance again through being in night 3 instead of 2 and may only technically have to beat Irama - to whom his stats stand up well considering their different target demographics.
Top 5
As said Fedez, Olly and Giorgia look like locks and I consider a 4/1 night 2 vs night 3 split statistically difficult.
That means in addition we get one of Cristicchi/Corsi and one of Irama/Brunori Sas making up the superfinal. I think Irma makes it and it is encouraging that he is grouped in the late/middle favourites section of the draw indicating he is likely ahead of Brunori. The Cristicchi vs Corsi battle is one of contrasting momentum but I’m not seeing enough positive from Corsi that he can overturn what is likely a deficit from the previous days, assuming he is ahead of Cristicchi tonight anyway. Simone gets the call from me.
Winner
With that top 5 of Giorgia, Olly, Fedez, Irama and Cristicchi established it’s tme to find the winner and Irama leaves the conversation here, taking 5th place like last year. Cristicchi has a chance if he can make it to this stage but I don’t see performing twice on the night working for him, again through running the emotional message into the ground. Honestly, Olly just doesn’t feel good enough and I’m not sure what new backing he can get at this stage, particularly if Irama is still here, 3rd is more than fair. Giorgia has been the consistent tip here but I wasn’t really banking on Cristicchi (or Corsi even) still being around and potentially taking some older demographic votes. It is Fedez who has impressed me the most this week and who feels like he has the real narrative on his side, without any direct competition and without an effective anti-vote from the juries this year. I’m sure he will be 4th or 5th with them, but he also feels the most uncapped on the televote. No one is reaching Geolier levels but if anyone can convincingly pull away -which the maths suggest could be decisive - it is him.
Fedez
Giorgia
Olly
Simone Cristicchi
Irama
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6. Lucio Corsi
7. Brunori Sas
8. Achille Lauro
9. Francesco Gabbani
10. Coma_Cose
11. Elodie
12. Rocco Hunt
13. The Kolors
14. Tony Effe
15. Rose Villain
16. Francesca Michielin
17. Moda
18. Noemi
19. Shablo
20. Gaia
21. Bresh
22. Serena Brancale
23. Clara
24. Joan Thiele
25. Massimo Ranieri
26. Willie Peyote
27. Sarah Toscano
28. Marcella Bella
29. Rkomi
My Position
It follows that I’m hoping for a Fedez victory (and at least top 3) and have been backing him throughout the week. I don’t really get the disparity in his price vs the others. Giorgia and Olly remain green whilst realistically I only want to dodge the Cristicchi bullet. Backed all of my bottom 6 for last except for odds on fav Marcella Bella so fingers crossed she can find something. The early draw may help her get some votes in vs the big group of 5 uncompetitive entries to end the night. Joan Thiele should be nowhere near last but could get dragged down there.