Melodifestivalen 2025: Final Preview
Melodifestivalen has pretty much come down to a heat 4 rematch between Måns Zelmerlow and KAJ. It was seen as optimistic when I gave our Sauna fans a 5% chance at beating him there but in the days since there's been growing belief (and plenty of hope) that they can beat him in the final.
Now yes, the stats and momentum is with them, but the final is Måns Zelmerlow's turf. The age group system levels out any advantage KAJ do hold in raw televote numbers with older groups presumably more keen on him and less visible on views and streams.
And then of course we have the international juries - whose job is to act like those at Eurovision (or are Eurovision jurors jobs to act like those at Melfest now? Debate for another time). Jurors by a long margin and by huge precedent prefer Måns' blend of pop above KAJ's humour and catchiness. It's why Loreen beat Kaarijaa, it's why Sweden are favourites for Eurovision this year ahead of Tommy Cash or Erika Vikman. It's why Sweden too have been drifting in the last week with some caution other Måns' procession.
For now the history book on the shelf is always repeating itself. I don't imagine that changes this year and Måns will collect c.90 pts from the juries here and top marks from the majority. KAJ? That's harder to call, I'm not in love with the rest of the field and this is pretty irresistible, I can see the juries giving them second place and have them in the 60-70pts range. The caveat there is I have at least 'respectable' points across the board whereas one killjoy juror could blank them entirely - and that very real possibility could kill any chance they do have.
KAJ do look like the televote winners at this point and they will need every point they can get there. Måns will certainly be in second at the minimum and won't be falling too far behind - I don't know if KAJ can overturn the combination of Måns love and the perceptions 'Revolution' is tactically the best option for Basel. The biggest danger for him is the scoring from the two youngest groups: if he's getting 3s and 4s instead of 6s and 7s.
I will say in the merits of KAJ that Bara Badu Basta is absolutely fantastic and one of the great gimmick/fun songs. I am of course Mr.#JuriesExist but damn if this one doesn't make me second guess that a little to the point I'm saying juries shouldn't be marking them down too much and the criteria of "what would do best in Eurovision" is a genuine question.
Elsewhere Greczula is better than his song and probably returns next year for the W with something more conventionally Melfest. I'm not a massive fan of this entry and I don't think there's the slickness here that juries typically demand for him to threaten Måns or anything. Does look like the 3rd placer on both sides and overall.
Lundvik and Segerstedt both get in each other's way to threaten that spot but I actually find Erik the more engaging in the h2h with a better song. Saga is one of the favourites for last but I really don't see that happening after her semi win and she should score consistently across the ages and with jurors.
Klara is not helped by the semi result suggesting a difficulty generating votes and the presence of a few other uptempo females. Some cheapness to the package which may have been punished by the juries last night. Scarlet continue to underwhelm but have their chance in front of the jurors for the first time. I don't know if that helps. Likely bottom half.
Meira Omar should pick up fairly consistent points but I don’t see any huge ones incoming - more a steady stream of 3s-6s. Maja Invarson should be a strong enough pick from the older groups to avoid a last place discussion and is reasonable jury filler.
Annika Wickihlader has a dull, repetitive song and this feels outclassed in the final. It does have a niche and a fair track record last year and some jury potential so odds on for last looks harsh. Dollystyle are my pick for that overall and away from the two youngest age groups likely score very poorly.
Måns Zelmerlow 164 (88J 76TV)
KAJ 161 (69J 92TV)
Greczula 112 (68J 44TV)
Erik Segerstedt 89 (51J 38TV)
John Lundvik 83 (46J 37TV)
Saga 60 (21J 39TV)
Klara 58 (29J 29TV)
Scarlet 50 (24J 26TV)
Meira Omar 46 (23J 23TV)
Annika Wickihalder 45 (28J 17TV)
Maja Ivarsson 37 (15J 22TV)
Dolly Style 23 (2J 21TV)
So, I do still have Måns winning this even with KAJ on what I think is the very high end of what is realistic. His score is more reliable, predictable and stable I think unless there is some conscious decision to not vote for him by enough people. KAJ - one or two poor jury results and it is over. My final maths as shown above is well within the margin of error however and I've backed out of any positions I held here. Dollystyle for last is my biggest direct interest whilst I have some minor positions where my maths have thrown up a different result to the various h2hs and points markets out there. Saga is my tip to overperform.
Overall this has turned into a competitive Melfest and Sweden have managed to find two songs that could do incredibly well at Eurovision in very different ways.