Eurovision 2023: Semi Final One Preview

In previous years, I generally tend to draft these the day before but hold off on publishing until the day of the event, on the off chance someone completely botches the jury show. I guess there's little point this time around with the juries only on standby. It's unlikely my opinion will shift much at all based on today's shows so here goes…

With just one side of the vote to crack and only 15 songs in the semi, 9/10 qualifiers has to be the minimum aim, starting at the bottom:

15. Ireland (pre rehearsals 13th)

Dropping two positions to last isn't really a reflection on Ireland's staging which although falls flat in going for the big, inspiring approach (much like the song) is no worse than expected. Instead this is a reflection on a very tight bottom 3. Perhaps in the second half of semi 2 this would be good enough to sneak in, but not here.

14. Latvia (pre-rehearsals 14th)

I'll be sad to see Latvia go but depart early they will. Lacking televote appeal and with an early draw and close to 0 bankable points this just won't make it. A good song but not a competitive one.

13. Azerbaijan (pre-rehearsals 15th)

Like Ireland and Latvia, Azerbaijan lack any bankable televote support and if anything suffer a drag having seriously underperformed in previous years. Climbing to 13th is due to the later draw and tiny margins here but this is deeply un-telegenic. Perhaps slightly more likely to also receive points from the rest of the world vote, assuming Turkey and other Eurasian countries are eligible.

12. Malta (pre rehearsals 12th)

The Busker are just about in the margin of error to qualify but have an uphill battle still. Odds around 3 look about right for this.

11. The Netherlands (pre rehearsals 11th)

The Netherlands remain my unlucky loser sitting on the edge of qualification with concerns over the votability of this not solved. What purpose does this serve in the running order and does any demographic pick up the phone? I'm not sure.

10. Croatia (pre rehearsals 10th)

Croatia in theory has a pretty high floor but there's a real chance this completely bombs too and those secure looking points slip away. I don't see this particularly likeable to the masses and the protest vote demographic has perhaps been overplayed. I lean with this sneaking in but not by much.

9. Portugal (pre rehearsals 9th)

There's not a lot to say on Portugal as they've shown up and done a proffersional job. It’s a package of 6/10s and should receive consistent low points with the occasional 6/7. Perhaps a little short in the market.

8. Switzerland (pre rehearsals 7th)

I'll take some concept over no concept, particularly with the way many of the over ballads have been staged but I'm not sure how well the message gets across. A step back from my expectations but I think there’s enough of a vote still.

7. Czech Republic (pre rehearsals 6th)

Our last entry on shaky territory, and 1.07 is perhaps the worst ‘safe bet’ of the year. There are plenty of traditional red flags here; A sense the bubble is significantly over-rating this, an over-assumption of a message landing, and your female rap. Czechia don't have a base vote of their own and I'm not certain this pan-slavic message will land 100% and generate the expected votes. Don't get me wrong, with 3 non runners in a heat where 10/15 make it, this should be through, but the points tally I'm expecting isn't a comfortable one.

6. Serbia (pre rehearsals 8th)

This feels overly generous for Serbia but there's a fair amount of pretty certain points here and in terms of general appeal it’s around equal to the rest of the entries we've gone through. Should be qualifying.

5. Moldova (pre rehearsals 3rd)

We’re into serious entries now and Moldova offer a solid niche in the semi and should receive good points from all over.

4. Israel (pre rehearsals 5th)

This is a very tight call between 4th and 3rd. The dynamics still do not feel great for this with Norway and Sweden having the better pre contest stats. ‘Unicorn’ would have benefited from the juries in this semi to gain a medal and Allesandra might just hold on.

3. Norway (pre rehearsals 4th)

I'll stick with the base indicators I think for the final top 3 entry with strong signs ‘Queen of Kings’ will do well without having took any real step forward in rehearsals. Perhaps the biggest question mark is whether a 3rd Nordic entry can make it in to the top 3 from 1st in the running order.

2. Finland (pre rehearsals 2nd)

Yes my raging campaign of hate against Kaarijaa continues with me going against the 1.45 shot for the semi win (narrowly). Closing the semi final is undoubtedly a big advantage and his usp is stronger than Loreen's but we do feel deep into bubble overhype territory and the level of certainty in this dominating the televote feels too much. In terms of the maths, I simply have Sweden holding up a little better outside of it's traditional strongholds than Finland as a more accessible first listen.

1. Sweden

Solidyfing Sweden's position is it's strong charting performance likely hitting those on the outskirts of the bubble of whom a large portion of the semi voter base encompass. Were Sweden able to have replicated their staging better I'd be more bullish on the more mainstream act seeing of Finland but they are still a good pick for first. Particularly from the rehearsals today it would appear initial fear over Loreen and optimism for Kaarijaa were greatly overblown.

Below is my ranking and points estimate for each country:

1. Sweden (184)

2. Finland (173)

3. Norway (130)

4. Israel (123)

5. Moldova (110)

6. Serbia (72)

7. Czechia (59)

8. Switzerland (56)

9. Portugal (51)

10. Croatia (50)

11. The Netherlands (44)

12. Malta (35)

13. Azerbaijan (11)

14. Latvia (10)

15. Ireland (8)

My position

I don't have a huge amount of investment in either semi this year with my most sizeable play being against Latvia to qualify at around 3s.

Sweden winning the semi is of course also a play for me, seriously I’d say 2.2 Max.

Czechia is a value lay I expect to lose but something I'm happy to chance. Moldova and Israel both to qualify also feature in some combinations I've been able to get on but for small stakes relative to the odds.