Eurovision 2023: Semi Final Two Preview

Ugh indeed.

This semi isn't great is it? It's fair to say it's a bit of a come down with not a single entry odds on for the eventual top 10. Personally, there are just two highlights whilst the lows are real low.

It's also not great for attempting to predict but thankfully in terms of qualifiers I still have the same 10 as before rehearsals so am not second guessing myself there too much.

It's trying to separate the higher end of this semi that's the real issue.

So, starting from the bottom:

16. San Marino (pre rehearsals 16th)

To say I actually burst out laughing when this came up during the clip release would be harsh but also true. At the bottom of every metric you care to look at and with 0 points in the bank this is the obvious pick for last.

15. Romania (pre rehearsals 15th)

Somehow Romania have found a way to go backwards from the National Final. Theodor is one of several way out of his depth here unfortunately whilst the absolute basics being done wrong on staging. Only the hardcore diaspora will be supporting this.

14. Iceland (pre rehearsals 14th)

Ironically with Dijla giving her all on stage this still feels incredibly low effort from Iceland and is lit too dark. Hard to see where any consistent points come from.

13. Greece (pre rehearsals 11th)

Easily the worst Greek entry since at least 2016. It's a testament to how poor this is that in a friendly, weak, televote only, 16 song semi I still have this missing out. As well as an incredibly shaky live performance the song itself just drags on but more importantly isn't exactly diaspora bait. I don't think this is getting big points from anywhere except Cyprus. Not out of the running but rightly has shuffled to odds against.

12. Estonia (pre rehearsals 12th)

Estonia is a big step up from Greece in quality and more likely to find a way through but I've never got on board with this at any point this season. There's something far too “by the numbers” about it and this is coming from someone more keen to give ballads a chance in this new televote only era. Just not convincing enough and lacking in purpose vs our other female vocalists- Lithuania, Georgia, Armenia and Albania all have more of a call to action.

11. Albania (pre rehearsals 13th)

Albania have done a pretty good job making this look professional. It's nothing we haven't seen from them many times before but they can never be wrote of. There’s a North Macedonian sized hole in their votes however and if there was just one more big diaspora source of points they'd be on my list.

10. Denmark (pre rehearsals 8th)

This is off vocally but quite well presented which his target audience would be more concerned with. Is the girl vote enough however to get him through? And will it be concentrated enough on Reiley? This is not a pick with conviction and like the market I don't have much confidence in this.

9. Lithuania (pre rehearsals 5th)

Lithuania had far better options than this in their selection, at least 2 that would be top 3 in this heat but no. It's another uninspired entry relying on a great vocal and more pointedly, Lithuania’s diaspora. I think there are more numbers and appeal here than for Greece and Albania so this is the one to come through for me and the draw is also pretty good.

8. Georgia (pre-rehearsals 7th)

This is a wasted opportunity for Georgia with Iru. ‘Echo’ has proven far less popular than originally expected but they've also done very little with this live. It's a repetitive entry, and needed far superior visual storytelling and progression. Don't get me wrong, it's nicely staged for a static performance and the lighting is great but this is a long 3 minutes. Iru to just carry this through but like everyone this feels way too short in the markets.

7. Belgium (pre-rehearsals 9th)

There's a case to be made for going balls to the wall and doubling down on your usp and niche. After all, there's no negative voting and even then, this is a Eurovision semi-final, there's a clear core vote for camp. I still have reservations this has veered too heavily into “omg yas, slay King” territory and won't pick up enough casuals to threaten the top of the semi but it wouldn't surprise either to see this as high as 3rd; it's that kind of field. Qualifying and will hold it's vote well enough in the final.

6. Cyprus (pre rehearsals 2nd)

Cyprus haven't had a great time of things in rehearsals and Andrew is having a hard time filling the huge stage and hitting some of the notes. Everything is fine, but we're missing any dynamism and conviction. There's a few big allies and this should pick up points consistently elsewhere too. Certainly qualifying anyway.

5. Armenia (pre rehearsals 3rd)

Always a tricky situation when an entry you like (even if I've never tipped highly) comes and shakes up the formula. Well that's what Brunette's done in adding a dance break after the rap chorus so when I say it doesn't help it one bit keep that in mind. In my opinion, it just confuses a song that already has a lot of competing elements that take more than one listen to fall into place. Yes, this is the semi where I have a different opinion to most who are heaping praise on this development. The rest of the staging is very nicely done and Brunette certainly looks good and sounds good too. I'm going to drone on in a moment about how another country's good running order has been overplayed so call me a hypocrite, but I do have to throw in that 2nd is far from ideal for this type of entry.

4. Australia (pre rehearsals 4th)

I want to be more sold on ‘Promise’ than I am but too much of the case for this is dependent on closing the show. Of course this is a huge benefit especially to an entry like this in a mess of a semi, but I still struggle to have full confidence in Australia this year and the staging loses me a little in the middle. Very professional, very competent, but I'm not sure what generates the votes here, particularly if you hang question marks over Australia's televote. My opinion isn't strong but this is where I have them.

3. Poland (pre rehearsals 10th)

Been a while since we could praise Poland on their live performance and despite throwing a lot of gimmicks and graphics at this (again) they've done a very good job. Always in my 10 but this is guaranteed to go through now. 3rd may raise a few eyebrows and it's the one entry I've followed the hype down on but there are a lot of guaranteed points here (more than any of the others in the top 5) and this feels so welcome after a few songs of nothingness.

2. Slovenia (pre rehearsals 7th)

Don't read too much into the 5 place jump this has made as ‘Carpe Diem’ hasn't exceeded expectations in any meaningful way. Like Australia this is just a very competent band with a very competent staging. Instead this is more an indication of the uncertainty I have in this semi, there's not much in it. I've decided to put a bit more faith in the earlier fan polling around this and assume that can carry over.

1. Austria (pre rehearsal 1st)

You wouldn't know it but Austria are still the favourite in the odds, and no it's not me propping them up, I don't have a strong enough opinion for that and am involved enough anyway. The staging does feel empty and lacking in refinement somewhat but it's no disaster in my view. The semi win is a lot less secure than it was pre rehearsals but looking at the opposition, this is still my pick.

My prediction and points estimation is below:

1. Austria 160

2. Slovenia 130

3. Poland 118

4. Australia 110

5. Armenia 105

6. Cyprus 95

7. Belgium 80

8. Georgia 64

9. Lithuania 62

10. Denmark 57

11. Albania 51

12. Estonia 48

13. Greece 40

14. Iceland 23

15. Romania 15

16. San Marino 2

I want to also stress the correlation between this prediction and any position in the final is very minimal and I’d expect a lot of leapfrogging etc based upon the draw etc.

My Position

I've been quite keen on Austria against the tide and despite the drift from the circa 2.2 I'm in at I'm happy enough. They are still the ones to beat although I'm not interested in tying anything further up.

Main positions are on Poland to qualify and Greece to NQ, whilst I also have some carry over combinations opposing the 3 acts from the bottom of this semi after avoiding a surprise in semi 1. A Georgian NQ is very tempting but ultimately I'm going to keep this simple and conservative.

Interestingly my biggest relevant position is on Lithuania top Baltic so by default an Estonian NQ would be very nice or we're back to where we started close to a coin toss pre-draw.