Semi Final 1 Pre-Rehearsals Preview

Qualifiers

Semi final 1 this year is one of those where getting 8/10 correct would be a poor showing given the size of the field and number of "certainties". I would hope that having had months to speculate and analyse in a 100% televote semi we'd be able to pick the the 3 from 5 for example who make it through- and feel free to hold me to that!

The following are 100% or close enough in my book:

Sweden, Finland, Norway, Moldova, Israel. Czechia aren't quite at that level of certainty for me and I wouldn't recommend backing sub 1.10 but they have to be included in any list.

That leaves 4 spots to fill of which Switzerland and Serbia feel the most secure and have featured in every run through I've done. The ballads have took a bit of a bashing this year in the qualification markets but I think there is an over-reaction, particularly with Switzerland. My reading is still that this is one of the stronger jury entries of the year (would be 1st-3rd in this semi) and the televote doesn't diverge to such a great extent. The comparison is to Cesar Sampson and Tamara Todevska who despite also being massively more jury focused would both still have qualified comfortably in 100% televoting from similarly congested semi finals. Sasha Jean Baptiste on staging also adds a bit more security, in theory.

Serbia have a bit of a head start on most in terms of base vote and I do have trust in Serbia getting the staging right. Whilst his niche is trampled on a bit in this semi final (Finland mainly but also Croatia), there should still be enough of an audience just about.

Portugal are the next to get the nod from me and Mimicat feels a safe candidate to pick up consistent 3-5 points which should do it. 'Ai Coracao' really feels a breath of fresh air in the lineup and offers something different.

We then come to the big decision point for my last qualifier and with very little confidence I'll pick Croatia. This has much more in common with novelty that has crashed and burned than anything successful but we're short on options now unless The Netherlands can improve on what we've seen. Even then the metrics are pretty terrible with neither the fandom, Eurojury (we can extrapolate somewhat to a TV audience) or Dutch press particularly enthralled. These situations rarely pan out well...

Malta are an outside possibility but come a little early and with not enough voting power to seriously consider yet whilst their staging has often been underwhelming.

Latvia and Ireland will struggle and be a surprise although Azerbaijan feels the only banker non qualifier and a very likely last place here.

The Winner

Back to the top of the field and it's my top 4 most sure Qualifiers I feel could go on to take this. Finland vs Sweden feels closer than the odds make it, which again are over reliant on the assumption televoters are only here for the wackiness. Finland makes an excellent closer but Sweden does lead on it's fair share of pre contest metrics. Norway topping both rival nordics from first looks a very big ask so Moldova might be the best outside pick as a nation with a long record of exceeding expectations and bringing staging that just works. It's not a semi final packed with friends for them but it's often the appeal of Eastern entries that are underrated in the market. Israel is not something I've given up on although it should be doing a little better in the metrics and feels more suited to the final than this semi when things will be shaken up.

My prediction at this stage is below, I'll save the estimated points for after rehearsals so for now have a rough (Qualification Chance/Win Chance)

1. Sweden (100%/45%)

2. Finland (100%/45%)

3. Moldova (100%/3%)

4. Norway (100%/3%)

5. Israel (98%/2%)

6. Czechia (90%/0.5%)

7. Switzerland (85%/1%)

8. Serbia (75%/0%)

9. Portugal (70%/0%)

10. Croatia (55%/0.5%)

11. The Netherlands (40%/0%)

12. Malta (30%/0%)

13. Ireland (15%/0%)

14. Latvia (15%/0%)

15. Azerbaijan (3%/0%)

Stay tuned for the mess that will be the semi 2 preview on Thursday where the dynamics couldn't be more different.