Semi-Final 2 Pre Rehearsals Preview

Oh dear, oh dear oh dear.

If semi final one was about trying to find the last 3 Qualifiers, this heat is focused on working around the only 3 certainties for me. What's worse is that there's only one country (yes not two, we'll get there...) I have for sure in the bin. That leaves 8 from 13 to find, good luck!

The Qualifiers

We start with my sure Qualifiers and they are Austria, Cyprus and Lithuania. Whilst there is room for a dissapointment live with Austria still, there's also as much chance it turns out pretty well and fulfills the potential of being the only televote magnet in this semi. Either way, it's not slipping 10+ places from it's rightful starting position of 1st. Cyprus fills the Switzerland niche from semi one of being a fine ballad that there's always an audience for whilst Greece and Australia will provide a very strong points foundation. Lithuania has a fair amount of televote points in the bank too and in addition to being well drawn promises to be competent at the minimum.

It gets harder from here but the next two to follow should be Armenia and Slovenia. Brunette is a personal favourite this year but I remain cautious of this falling into the 'aggressive' staging route that hasn't served Armenia too well in the past. Going in 2nd is no help with this but Armenia should be having a few points in the bank from Georgia and a spattering of diaspora. This should be qualifying, but it's certainly not something I'd be backing.

Slovenia has proven fairly popular with the fandom and so on but it smacks of a 7 out of 10/ no one's favourite scenario. It's also Slovenia with an awful record and 0 base points pretty much. There's enough charisma here and it comes at a welcome time in the semi so it gets the tick but I expect this to struggle massively in the final.

Australia makes sense as the next on the list and offer identical pros/cons to Slovenia although with the benefit of closing the show. Australia have underperformed with the televote pretty much every year however and can not be considered bankers. Voyager should be good enough live and a generic rock staging is hard to get wrong but it wouldn't be a huge surprise if Europe once again just says nah.

I'll throw Georgia in next but this is very much with high staging expectations and given how polling is going for them the odds are very short. They're also not starting from the strongest base with only Armenia as neighbours and a minimal diaspora.

Denmark might have the next strongest case with Reiley filling a bit of a niche in the semi. It's not an ideal draw opening but there's the smallest sense of DR trying marginally harder and there's some staging potential there. It should also appeal more outside the fandom than the very average reception it has within.

Whilst many feel Belgium has aged well in the context of the semi standard this still feels like a really low point to me but I will have Gustaph borderline in. What separates this from the other challengers is I suppose there's a reason to vote for it and a camp cliche-fest, whilst not a sizeable niche, is at least a niche. It's worth saying this has also overacheive already in it's national final and now in Eurojury so I'm being a bit wary with it.

My final qualifying spot is a close run battle between Greece and Poland but I will edge this towards Blanka. There's certainly a bit of industry inflation going on but the stats are strong and Poland start with plenty of points in the bank (any hate towards her seems more fan centric and I'd expect this to do as well as usual with the diaspora). In fairness, it's a decent song for what it is with the main goal just being to cover up the vocals. Greece's entry is the ultimate toilet break in my opinion and I struggle to see any neutrals vote for it but it's another helped by the draw. Cyprus are here but expect some points to fly Victor (Jorgensen's) way from Denmark and a few diaspora scores here and there, enough to keep it well in the mix.

Estonia are also not without a chance and wouldn't surprise at all but right now I have them missing out. Alika doesn't quite retain the same confidence I have in the Swiss/Cypriot ballads for example and this feels more vulnerable. There is an audience but this is more about me just not rating this much from the start. It might also be worth mentioning this is doing pretty poorly in Eurojury and even if the semis are televote only we can take something from that.

Albania probably don't end up far mathematically from the qualification line but on paper their entry has an uphill task to appeal beyond the more limited diaspora than usual. Still, it's drawn late, fills a bit of a void and has some identity to it so they also can't be ruled out.

Iceland doesn't really have any of that so start us off in the more unlikely territory now. This entry has just been forgotten and is likely to suffer this problem in Liverpool too. It's a similar situation to Latvia in semi one for me; I'd have them in my personal ten, but I'm not voting for it whilst there's almost no base support. The other unlikely entry is Romania but I don't have this as a banker NQ despite it's near universal panning and poor draw. There's about 20 diaspora points to start us of and in a lineup like this that gives most anything a chance. Probably too amateur and limited overall but it's not to be completely discounted like San Marino. If Theodor Andrei is second bottom in every metric, sitting several rungs below him are The Piqued Jacks who are hopeless here.

The Winner

We return to the win market now and if it's consensus between the tipsters you want this Thursday, you're not getting it here; Austria is the obvious choice. I have questions but perhaps even more over the rest. Cyprus should run them closest and are the only entry I see as a realistic threat at this stage. Despite Lithuania being my other "certain" qualifier they don't have the gas for the win. Armenia, Georgia and Australia sit as outside possibilities.

Overall I'm provisionally thinking an order like this. (Q chance/ semi win chance)

1. Austria (100%/70%)

2. Cyprus (99%/14%)

3. Armenia (75%/4%)

4. Australia (75%/4%)

5. Lithuania (97%/0.5%)

6. Slovenia (75%/2%)

7. Georgia (67%/4%)

8. Denmark (60%/0.5%)

9. Belgium (60%/0.5%)

10. Poland (60%/0%)

11. Greece (50%/0%)

12. Estonia (50%/0.5%)

13. Albania (33%/0%)

14. Romania (27%/0%)

15. Iceland (27%/0%)

16. San Marino (1%/0%)