The Blind Preview

There's no definitive start to a Eurovision season. Perhaps it’s the second the previous contest ends, when the first national final begins, first artist selected or host city confirmed. Maybe for us money chasers it's when the exchange goes live. September the 1st however has it's claim in being the date at which any new release could enter the mix. With that loose excuse let’s take a first look at how the ground lies before a note has been heard; who are we optimistic for and is there any early value to be had on the limited sportsbook offerings?

Ukraine have to start the season as favourites having a. the most base points, b. An incredibly strong track record and c. Usually filling what has become the all important national identity/quality mix better than most. When you consider the usual favourites Sweden are hosting and Italy have also recently hosted this further strengthens their grip in my theoretical starting odds. Italy does however logically start as my second favourite and a final San Remo with Amadeus at the helm could prompt an even higher than usual standard.

The previously mentioned Sweden start 3rd in the running for me. The track record can't be ignored whilst you also receive a higher level of safety that whatever wins through Melodifestivalen will be somewhat competitive/allow you to trade out for perhaps a half loss at worse with only the 2020 victory by The Mama's presenting a near universally acknowledged d.o.a in the market. Caution comes in the form of the hosting dynamic of which there is a historical trend of over-expectation coupled with under-performance. You're probably going back to Azerbaijan in 2012 for the last time a host nation exceeded/met any strong expectation. Broadcasters reluctant to host immediately again has been a theme in this time and SVT finding themselves with practically one venue available in the entire country and no option but to host in Malmo adds weight to this concern. Next year in Stockholm or let's ease of the gas ever so slightly? Looking further down the line, the host's random draw adds variance whilst any potential rule change or rejigg would likely skew to televoting and away from the juries which would historically be a bad thing for Swedish hopes. Perhaps that’s part of the reason why it would be unlikely but still, worth baring in mind…

Norway are the 4th country to mention having found a formula for televote appeal and being a suitable western destination for jury points should they bring something of more “class” than ‘Spirit in the Sky’ or ‘Queen of Kings’. NRK feel like they've been 80% of the way for much of the last decade, just lacking that bit of magic needed to get over the line.

Spain have made promising strides and slot in next above France in my blind rankings. Both are very much on the right track although have yet to show consistent strong results.

Greece may be a surprise mention here considering the debacle of 2023 and patchy recent record but refinding that ethnic touch and national identity would make them a dangerous candidate and changes are promised.

Armenia are the first non-winner to get a mention and like Norway feel they have been 80-90% there many times. Ambition always feels high but channeling that with a more vote-able overall package is the question. As the smallest nation mentioned so far too concerns over the depth of talent without retreading previous entries becomes a concern.

The UK need to not panic and likewise just focus on the votability aspect of finding a great performer again. The potential is clearly here but like Spain and France they are yet to back up their one strong recent showing and the lows are low, hence the slightly worse starting position in my book.

Belgium have announced their act already in the shape of Mustii giving us a little bit more to work from than most. It's a fairly promising selection on paper and the Eurovision TV article sells him well although an examination of the back catalogue leaves more of a middling impression and a sense of style over substance. Overall they jump up a couple spots from my drafts a few days back on the news and will be a release worth keeping an eye on.

Finland also take a bit of a jump in starting odds and narrowly miss out off the top 10. YLE have made strong progress even if UMK's competitiveness has been overstated and by nature Kaarijaa was more of a 'one off' and doesn't offer a specific blueprint to follow. A cautious rise in my standings but not a bankable contender by any stretch.

Switzerland are arguably in need of trying something a bit different next time around and despite a drop off in results and execution since Luca Hanni and Gjon's tears I “trust the process” so to say and find them more reliable than most

Serbia always start as the strongest Balkan on paper and have been making good progress the last few years in bringing more interesting entries. That said, it's been a long while since anything has particularly raised much market interest and seriously been in consideration for victory.

Australia follow providing a little “will they be there?” risk that hasn't been present the last couple of years and seemingly waning ambition to go all out. Less reliable than previous years but not to be discounted with the right act.

The Netherlands have a new HOD and will likely attract some interest but the presence of Douwe Bob (ie, more of the same) in the rumours mill doesn't particularly appeal

Portugal slot in somewhere around here with Festival De Cancao delivering on a more consistent basis.

Poland look likely to pivot back to internal selection which didn't particularly go well at the last attempt. A long term underperformer based off their industry and diaspora, their starting odds are often as good as it gets although pushing them down the list also feels wrong. Very much a wait and see like most years.

Luxembourg are a bit of an unknown and whether we get a San Marino level no hoper or a serious slice of quality with financial backing remains to be confirmed. From what we have heard surrounding their national final and the general tone the idea seems more focused on representation and participation above anything else. It's hard to see them going all the way in the modern era with lots of catching up to do but one to keep an outside eye on particularly should any welcome back bounce be on the cards.

Israel reverting to their talent show format puts success more up in the air so they take a big step back on last year’s starting grid position.

The same was going to be said for Cyprus and their “national final” but that's no longer the case. Instead we look set for a “dream team” production with Silia Kapsis the rumoured imminent announcement. This switcheroo in plans doesn't particularly help my optimism and I’m expecting something similar to Stefania's 2021/22 entries for Greece.

Azerbaijan and Romania also sink down and reach real longshot territory. The rest of the assumed lineup doesn't offer many talking points and start at their regular positions I don't think many would argue with. Whether Estonia, Iceland or Austria are more likely to produce something is really splitting hairs at this stage. Taking the wooden spoon is Georgia who have the weakest case in my book by a bit of a margin. And in saying that Tbilisi 2024 is confirmed.

Applying a generous margin (and not the lunacy of the few available bookies) the escbetting sportsbook odds would start as follows:

Ukraine 5

Italy 9

Sweden 11

Norway 15

Spain 21

France 21

Greece 25

The UK 25

Armenia 25

Belgium 33

Finland 33

Serbia 33

Switzerland 33

Portugal 33

Poland 33

Netherlands 33

Australia 33

Germany 41

Luxembourg 41

Denmark 41

Estonia 41

Ireland 51

Iceland 51

Israel 51

Austria 51

Czech Republic 51

Cyprus 66

Malta 66

Moldova 66

Lithuania 66

Azerbaijan 81

San Marino 101

Romania 101

Latvia 151

North Macedonia 151

Slovenia 151

Georgia 201

Out of the possible returnees only Turkey and Bulgaria are worth particularly mentioning and would join the list around 15s and 20s respectively.

So any worthwhile takeaways from this? Ukraine is the only place to be investing for any hit and hope early birds. Applying even the most blind and surface level of statistics (wins from appearances) Ukraine is curiously overpriced with oddsetters seemingly convinced any “sympathy vote” etc is not coming back. Whilst that's very likely true it's worth digging below the surface of their result last year and acknowledging that ‘Heart of Steel’ still overacheived in the televote compared to regular times. Besides any lingering diaspora/solidarity Ukraine are one of the best at the contest on their own right.

Anyway, feel free to leave a comment below on who you’re backing from my odds and any other predictions for the upcoming year.