Sanremo 2024 Blind Preview
Well, it's safe to say my streak of pre song correct picks since starting this site is in a heap of trouble this year with one of the most open, unpredictable and star studded lineups.
As is tradition there have been some shakeups in the format but the main meaningful change is that the "demoscopic jury" is out, directly replaced by a "radio jury". In theory, this should be more critical and have a closer eye on hit potential and vocals. Tldr; the jury vote in the way we think of it is more powerful, yet an act still needs very strong public support to face that test on finals night. Onto the acts…
The Lineup
Geolier
Geolier starts as a short priced favourite considering the strength of the lineup and very much fits into the Lazza and Mahmood (2019) bracket: here to represent the more urban sound and younger viewers that San Remo has built up over Amadeus' tenure. I will say the same for him actually that I did for Lazza around this time last year in that he needs his best work yet, and by a margin. Now that did happen for Lazza and there's strong production backing here again but he will need something different to punch beyond his admittedly large core voter base. A threat for the title but I can't get on board with the prices available.
Allesandra Amorroso
Amorroso makes her long awaited debut in the contest and starts as second favourite which again may be a little flattering. Popular, she carries with her a similar status and demographic appeal to that of Elisa (2nd 2022) which was one of the best showings from a solo female in a long time. Not to be written off but not a frontrunner in my book and whatever song she has is likely too far off the cutting edge to really get the jury support, though they will be respectful.
Negramaro
A difficult act to try to predict, Negramaro are almost popular (in the well liked sense) and irrelevant at the same time. A legacy act yet one without a San Remo victory whilst not carrying any momentum either. What we will get is a well composed, well performed yet heard it all before sort of entry that will do nothing to convince the international audience. I was coming into this preview thinking I'd be justifying their position in the odds but I just can't, particularly when there's another act fishing in the same older demographics which I'll come on to. Overall, the win would a bigger shock than the odds suggest, but not a mind blowing one that those here because of Eurovision would feel.
Annalisa
This point also applies to Allesandra and the other women but I'll mainly address it here: the narrative that San Remo is due a female winner is primarily driven by the casual Eurovision audience. The Italian public is going to vote as always for what they like best and I'm sceptical that either of the juries will be influenced much either. It's the old gamblers fallacy to believe that the wheel will come up red this time, especially when the statistics would suggest black is being loaded just through voting patterns and demographics. Nevertheless Annalisa is one of the most relevant and popular artists in the selection as well as a strong performer. Across 6 attempts a 3rd place is the best we have but she enters this event at arguably the peak of her career so far and seemingly well in with Rai and Amadeus, should you believe that will have an effect.
Angelina Mango
I'm very sceptical here with Angelina making her first appearance at the contest and with a smaller following or back catalogue than any other favourite. The closest comparisons in style to previous years are with Elodie and the song is somewhat "upbeat". The writers are the main appeal with Madame and Dardust behind this one, and there has been more talk around her than I anticipated when the lineup first came out. Still, not a backable act amongst the other favourites.
Il Volo
Our 2015 winners and 2019 third placers have a strong pedigree in the contest and an impressive strike rate from their two appearances. Their televote popularity makes them the most sure superfinalists out of the list in my view whilst there's also perhaps less reliance on the song itself. Masterpiece or not (probably not) the guys are going to perform it well and look good doing so. Previous results highlight their main issue in winning over the music critics vote and this could prove their achilles heel again. A little overpriced given their record but you would feel they are hindered greatly by the new radio jury.
Mahmood
Another act with a great recent track record follows but one where that also feels the undoing in a sense. After winning in 2019 and 2022, it would be quite some feat to take a third victory so soon and there is a sense of fatigue. A self described "funk" sound may freshen things up but I'm sceptical that is a winning formula. Not of huge interest this time around unlike last although the odds are generous enough.
Irama
It says a lot about the names involved this year that Irama is 8th favourite. Another versatile performer, from descriptions we'll be more down the 'Ovunque Sarai' avenue. Expecting a critical pleaser but an uphill battle to make it into the superfinal and lacking a bit of a usp. Fair price.
Emma
2012 winner Emma Marrone feels somewhat forgotten in this lineup and that's mainly due to Amoroso and Annalisa leaving her a bit of a third wheel. A 6th place in 2022 was respectable and something similar feels more likely than a real challenge and I'm just uncertain where she stands out and how serious her attempt at victory is.
Diodato
2020 winner Diodato makes his return with what will be another big ballad and very likely a strong one. As we've seen over the past years, there has been almost zero evidence of a "they deserve to go" vote for the lost Eurovision class of '20 and at SanRemo where the idea of this being a "national selection" is barely a thought this will play no part. Instead Diodato enters this year just as he did last time, a talented artist with less of a spotlight on them. Jury support will again be key but a big price for his capabilities, particularly given the voting shakeup. A real threat if he can get into the superfinal.
From the rest of the field there's a few acts that might be worth a mention. Mr Rain displayed his credentials last year by making it to the final 5 before falling off a cliff after losing his children's choir gimmick, sadly his price has been cut off the back of last year so not really back-able currently. Giovanni winner Clara could similarly have had appeal if placed in the typical 50+ region but also has to be ignored at available odds. The Kolors and Sangiovanni are notable names at big prices, pushed down due to the quality field but Renga e Nek are the act I want to highlight in particular.
Whilst unlikely to get much hype, this partnership does solidify votes from the older demographics and I'm always cautious with a duet at the event (Meta/Moro 2018, Michielin and Fedez 2021, Mahmood and Blanco 2022 and Collapesce e Dimartino if they count) and this sees a winner and a runner up join forces. The writers also have some pedigree here and similar to Negramaro, there are the hallmarks here of something easily digestible to Italians but underwhelming to outsiders. Potential surprise superfinalists and the best longshot, provided critics previews confirm this is not a phoned in song. For true unlikely outcomes, Rose Villain's 'Click Boom!' should be interesting and could get a higher placing than outright prices suggest with one of the composers playing a part in last year's top 2.
Overall Prediction:
1. Annalisa
2. Diodato
3. Geolier
4. Renga e Nek
5. Il Volo
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Like always, press previews will be critical and telling. If any act fails to make the top 5 say of the standardised rankings it's pretty much over already in this competitive line-up and the market will circle in on the top 3, particularly if an expected televote heavyweight such as Geolier or Il Volo feature strongly. Gun to my head, Annalisa is my hope to retain the streak but this is the hardest of the 3 editions covered to call by quite some distance.
Anyone involved at this stage should keep things small but my recommendations are:
Annalisa @ 6-8.5
Il Volo @12-13
Diodato @ 17-26
Renga e Nek @31-35