Eurovision 2024: The Road to Malmo

So on the year as a whole and this is quite a strong one in my view. There is a great range of diversity and attention grabbing entries and the televote is rather spoilt. We are lacking something conventional of big televote potential however which is why we are left with no clear favourite. There is indeed a great disparity between the expected jury contenders and those televote favourites. We could be looking at a year where something as low as 4th on the televote or 7th on the jury vote could mathematically win with 450 pts likely enough to get the job done in my estimations. This opens up the running quite a bit and so we have a lot of countries to get through.

Market leader Croatia is our first (of many) entries that could in theory be dismissed by our resurrected JuriesExist hashtag from last year. We could go down a big Kaarijaa wormhole about the relative strengths of this vs that and the dynamics of the year but at the end of the day, this is inevitably heading for a much lower jury score than televote. I am keen on the chances of this still, but do find it a little odd this has not drifted out much if at all since selection and has in fact gathered pace in the last week. If we are now in fact rating The Netherlands as a televote rival, and perhaps Greece as a regional one then this does take a step back. Still, this is fairly seen as a more likely televote winner than those two as well as having more jury credibility on paper with traditional assumptions. We have seen some stills from rehearsals and one which I am concerned on is that bridge which appeared unchanged - something I really wanted to see them up the ante on and which has become even more important to do so given that is The Netherlands' ace in the hole.

Ukraine have begun to sneak under the radar somewhat if it is possible to say that about an entry second in the odds. There is a certain lack of interest in the fandom over this and 'Teresa and Maria' lacks the meme ability or speculation over how a first live performance might look but something interesting to this not touched on has been the general betting reaction. We heard it, Ukraine were backed in and continued to be. We saw it, Ukraine were backed down into the 3s. Yes there have been drifts too but it hasn't taken stats to rescue this from the triple digits (Netherlands), it didn't receive a mixed initial reaction (Switzerland, Greece) it wasn't sat around for weeks at up to 50s (Croatia) and we didn't want other entries to win (Italy). The market isn't the be all end all, particularly at this time of the year but instinctually and viscerally the reaction was - this is strong. We have been shown many times to be wrong in initial assements but that is usually in writing something off too quickly. Anyway, Ukraine also have the highest amount of guaranteed points from the televote and this stands out in the lineup. I don't believe this is a jury frontrunner and Eurojury may not be that impressive but I also think Ukraine's credentials on that side once they get this to Malmo are being a bit overlooked. If enough casuals are ready for Ukraine to win again and whether a downbeat song can gather that televote support this year is a valid question and the biggest issue I have found myself having with this right now. Does Ukraine actually stand out for the wrong reason as a depressing entry in a sea of fun?

Italy are third in the market just about and have shortened into single figures over the last couple of weeks. Sanremo results on both sides should be taken with a pinch of salt (regional spam voting vs jury manipulation) and neither a runaway jury push or being ignored on the televote is to be expected. For an 'open year', Italy do have a very good lead on the MyEurovisionScoreboard app and are somewhere near the top in most other fan metrics and polls, whilst Spotify and YouTube stats (as always for Italy) are strong. 'La Noia' does carry the hallmarks of a Eurojury winner and should be somewhere in the top 5 at a minimum there I expect whilst this entry benefits significantly in being performed in full in the semi final- new for our automatic qualifiers this year. I do believe Italy's lead in ranking polls vs pick your one winner type polls illustrates the greater consensus behind this than almost any other entry but that isn't particularly helpful for the televote. Going back to Sanremo, Angelina now needs to compete vs a whole pack of Geoliers. Benelux and central Europe look like hotbeds for Joost, Baby Lasagna may have the Balkans locked down, Ukraine has the east and their diaspora and the Nordics may have Gåte and Marcus and Martinus whilst Israel are an unquantifiable factor. I trust the staging will be good but there is a lack of a wow factor and a real call to vote. With Sweden drawn 1st and overly reliant on the juries potentially, Italy is the “default win” candidate.

Switzerland are now pretty much level in the odds. They are an entry I have as a very good green for the win but where I have also put some pennies at the NQ and am tempted by some of the submarkets where this has also shortened into- such is the variance with this one. There is a great deal of potential here but at current, a lot of the odds seem to be taking it almost for granted this comes off live whereas my estimation is way more up in the air. This is not just a question of vocals, but also charisma and the staging as a whole in making this a votable package and I don't believe we will get our answer proper until May. Whilst the range is wide and I literally have the two extremes covered if held at gunpoint I would guess a jury 7th- televote 12th sort of result. I am not discounting Nemo, but a lot of my estimations and predictions are treating him more as a dark horse than a frontrunner and I believe the odds in all markets are far too optimistic currently.

The Netherlands

The Netherlands have been snowballing quickly and whilst there are still doubts over whether this works to enough regions on the first/second listen it is becoming difficult to dismiss the traction this is gathering. Inflated polls and fan hype can become a self fulfilling prophecy. There is no hard and fast dividing line between a novelty song and a serious one but 'Europapa' is clearly on that spectrum and having a message does not save it from that. In fact it's often some of the sillier entries that are the most political (Let3 last year for example). This is easier than Croatia this year to dismiss by juries and therefore would need a bigger landslide televote which makes me question this more. It's assumed Croatia and Ukraine are going to need to overhaul some sort of deficit and we're now looking at the Netherlands doing that, whilst also leapfrogging that pair. Difficult to say the least unless I am severely overestimating the appeal of those two.

Belgium

This year might be too open to run polls on at X but I do suspect that this might come out as the assumed jury winner right now. Putting my music critics hat on, I would go along with that in studio and this is a very clever composition. Belgium also come close to Ukraine in having that instinctual backing taking this from around 100 down into the teens where it has kind of stuck around since. There is a reason Mustii got that high to begin with however and we are yet to see this live. Similar to Switzerland, this requires a big show but whilst this is more stable, I just do not see the televote going for this in big enough numbers. This just lacks a narrative, call to vote or identity in the modern contest despite what the composition is trying to be. Give this to Eden Golan and Israel, or assume its Melovin representing Ukraine and maybe but Mustii and Belgium, in this year? I am very sceptical and this could take a Cesar Sampson path.

Greece

Its not been long since Greece was released and I was quite keen on it then and to be honest I've been keen on Marina all season but the rest of the market has now caught up. I do still struggle to see what the path to victory is however. This does not have the makings of a 300+ televote stormer, nor does it have the markings of your usual jury top 5. Ergo, it's dead right? Probably. I have begun to suspect this will do better than my first expectations with the juries however if they are able to look past it's ethnic dressings but that is to say they might be 8th instead of 15th with them. There is some interesting work being done compositionally here and the team behind this of Fokas and Majnoon lends credibility and word of them filming this in one shot would make this an experience (similar gimmicks have worked on film critics). I'm expecting a very strong live performance and a result close to ‘Shum’ or ‘In Corpore Sano’ as the artistic but quirky female ethnic number is possible.

Israel

For Israel I don't have much to add from the review but the tldr of the: the worse the experience in Malmo is for Eden, the stronger the narrative and reason to vote is very much applies and that is Israel's road to a televote victory, not due to anything that happened months ago as that vote is not large enough. Jurors are again harder to pin down here. A reasonable breakdown might be 40% of individual jurors will ignore entirely, 40% will go on 'merit' and 20% will inflate. I'm also expecting this to be surrounded by crowd favourites and placed a little out of the way in the running order - think 16th, with Netherlands 17th if the draw fell that way. Provisionally a jury 13th-televote 7th might be reasonable.

We take a big jump in the odds up to the 40+ range now with France around here. They are one on the shortlist to do well in the jury vote with Slimane's vocal and safe ballad and they make up my 5 potential winners on that side but seem the least likely with a possibility to disappoint. I don't envisage much televote support outside of the core Francophone base. I'm less keen than I was back on release actually despite Sliame mixing this up.

Sweden have took a massive plunge in the odds with their draw of 1st and give us a few angles to discuss. There are so many alternatives, so what chance does this have with that added handicap (it still is a handicap despite voting opening at the start of the show) combined with a traditional host lag, and sense of 'Swede-fatigue'? That is three red flags of the bat. Well Marcus and Martinus are the biggest names in the contest, had the most convincing victory to get here and have a package that juries will absolutely love. Going back to 2010 when voting was also open from the start offers the comparison with Azerbaijan opening the show and coming 5th with the televote. Swapping the old Azeri asterisk for Sweden's regional voting and MM's fan base might suggest something similar is possible. Overall, this draw maybe offers an opportunity with a place still on the cards in my book making Sweden interesting in the odds, maybe moreso as I was feeling that was their limit anyway.

The UK is not something I want to go over much and I'm very concerned on the televote whilst the juries are probably too preoccupied to give this a big push. We will see live if my mind can be changed but on each run-through I find this slipping lower and lower in my predictions.

I am more keen on Lithuania. Not only for the fact this has a big base vote to fall back on but 'Luktelk' really is an eye catching entry with a strong hook. There is a relatively good jury/televote split here too.

Austria looks the most optimistically priced entry of all and I don't see a top 10 on either side of the vote to be honest, especially not the jury side. They like a strong pop presentation, but usually not of this variety.

Finland likewise have 0 chance at winning the contest because they will probably receive 10 pts from the juries. Personally, I do find this a hilarious entry and windows95man works his gimmick well. I do think this is just a bit too stupid to reach the very top of the televote but this should go big - just more 100-150 pts big than anything game changing.

Norway are an entry whose televote potential I have cooled on overall in assigning a wider range but there is still a possibility this scores a 4th or something with that side of the vote, with a second half draw essential in bringing out the potential. There is a somewhat unique energy here that I don't get from anything else this year. The jury vote could likewise be wide making Norway a difficult country to pin down. I recommend backing this in the semi final markets if anywhere for now.

Finally Ireland are our last country under triple figures (just) and no I still don't see any chance for the win or a place and it doesn’t feel worthwile speculating on other markets with them for now.

That leaves room for two long odds shout outs the first being Serbia. As stated in the review this is one that could go either way and not something I believe strongly in but which has far more chance at actually winning the contest than several others. The reception has generally been positive and I don't really see why this is deep in triple figures in comparison to some other entries. Portugal might have one of the best entries ever to hit 900+. I do have this one as a marginal qualifier and there is a chance the juries push this "surprisingly" high up the scoreboard. Worth considering in some markets and far more so than Latvia in my view if we are to get a marginal qualifier pushed into the top 10.

Speculating on the winner is of course the most fun and interesting debate, but it is hard to have a very strong opinion this year. In fact from those mainly brought up as contenders (under 30s) it's only Belgium I have any real confidence in not taking the trophy at the end of the day. Even then, given I expect them to do very well in the various metrics from now I'm not really keen to oppose directly.

Current Top 10 Prediction

1. Croatia

2. Ukraine

3. Italy

4. Sweden

5. Greece

6. The Netherlands

7. Belgium

8. Lithuania

9. Israel

10. Switzerland

Highlighting the uncertainty of this year, I have changed my 1st/2nd in the process of drafting this preview in the last few days. The change has come through removing some of the casual support and lowering Ukraine's jury appeal slightly. Going back to 'Theresa and Maria', this does feel to not fit in with the show as much a Croatia victory would. Baby Lasagna is the cherry on top of the party vibes cake this year presents and to me makes the most sense as the winner right now. He is admittedly far worse value than Ukraine and when I have ran the numbers there is less than 20pts in it. For now, I have the two level at the top of my book.

Recommendations at current odds -

Lay Austria top 10

Back Lithuania top 10

Back Sweden top 10/top5/EW

Lay Armenia top 10

Switzerland may also be worth opposing in the many submarkets for the more bold.