Melodifestivalen: Grand Final Preview
It must be opposite year because as the Sanremo streak came to an end here, Melodifestivalen has gone quite well with the pre-song prediction a 1.2 shot. Will it be that simple? Yes. With all the data at our fingertips and knowledge over typical international jury preferences Marcus and Martinus are a clear and obvious first place and a wide margin ahead. The televote contenders - Medina and Danny Saucedo should be too far behind on the jury side and the jury contenders - Jacqline mainly but there’s an outsiders shout elsewhere- look significantly far back on the televote. Marcus and Martinus look to be a minimum of second with either constituency and in my view will just be first with both. ‘Unforgettable’ is a strong package delivered in the typical slick melfest winner tradition whilst the pair held their vote amongst the older demographics very well last year, damaging that argument. This looks a done deal.
2nd to 7th is very hard to seperate and isn’t something to have a lot of conviction in so I’ll try not to tie myself in knots here. Looking over the performances in this lineup, Jacqline in slot 11 stands out as the next most jury friendly act and it appears a fairly good lineup of international jurors for this Dua Lipa inspired song and professional showing. The televote will not be anything special with some unspectacular stats but should be enough to cling on to 2nd just about. I’ve gone with Liamoo as a consensus 3rd who should do well on both sides of the vote. Dotter is troubled a little by the presence of Annika Wickihalder and a bad fan poll showing last night. On paper she should be getting some good points from the older demographics and usual inflation of the returning names. Not a brilliant performance by any stretch but juries may overlook that for the veneer of class. Danny Saucedo is likely 2nd/3rd in the televote but I have the juries limiting him and his more loose and dated effort to around here. Maria Sur should do better than this really but opening the show does not help her and going through all the songs in order, I can see a strong jury score followed by a disappointing tv total. Medina complete this section and will be the reverse of that. Any of these could beat any other really and I have barely 20 points between the lot.
Annika Wickihalder could also feature higher but her and Smash Into Pieces look to be in no man’s land a little.
In the hunt to avoid last place, it feels like I’m the only one tipping the odds on favourite Lisa Ajax as the obvious contender. Bottom on streams and being the runner up from way back when in heat 1 points to a very low televote whilst there’s not that much here for jurors either. I don’t foresee where a score bigger than a 4 comes from actually. Cazzi Opeia will not do well overall either, but could be ahead on both counts and doesn’t look to be last on any singular metric. If any juror goes out of line so to say I also find it likelier for her to get a random big score than Lisa. I also somewhat suspect Jay Smith's streams won't convert into half as many votes and this isn’t the typical melfest jury package but he should be clear from last, despite technically being the weakest qualifier and having the 2nd spot.
Prediction
Marcus and Martinus 163pts
Jacqline 108pts
Liamoo 101pts
Dotter 92pts
Danny Saucedo 89pts
Maria Sur 87pts
Medina 85pts
Annika Wickihlader 70pts
Smash Into Pieces 58pts
Jay Smith 33pts
Cazzi Opeia 26pts
Lisa Ajax 16pts
Opposing Lisa is my only strong remaining interest as I’ve already moved on from Melfest in the whole onto the many Eurovision side markets. One final word on the overall quality here and I don’t feel there’s a significant deviation from most years. Sweden have a winner that should secure a strong result once more and there’s nothing below average in this final overall. More than Melfest seeing a ‘quality’ dip, the staleness of the format and predictability of the entries, styles and results is more the issue. The failure of more interesting and new acts like Froken Snusk and Scarlet whilst the same old names are here (mostly with lesser produce) has contributed to the general indifference this year that I have seen.