Finland: UMK 2024 Preview
In contrast to Sanremo what we have here tonight is almost the opposite in having a 75/25 split in favour of the televote, and it's a pretty opposite result I'm predicting.
It really is a weird night when I expect he televote song comes through despite the system in one yet won't despite all the advantages in the other. That televote song is namely 'No Rules' from Windows95 man, who took a lead in polls early today. He will also be pleased to see main rivals for the vote Mikael Gabriel and Nublu fall pretty flat with an underwhelming performance. What is shaping up is a good example of how staging can make all the difference. Finland, as we know well, are quite partial to a bit of a novelty and something OTT and Windows 95 man runs with that well.
His problem is that Sara Siipola has held much of the advantage in statistics and is relatively close behind still, despite not reaching top gear from what I have seen. It's a narrow enough margin that the small jury vote could make the difference and Sara should be ahead on that metric. And this is of course assuming that the latest polls and general opinions over the live performances hold much water. Sara also holds the advantage of standing out in the field facing less direct competition. A close televote between Sara and Windows95man is expected with Sara taking the juries and the win. Elsewhere, Cyan Kicks were looking solid performers in rehearsals but despite their rock tendencies, Finns just aren't buying this watered down track and dissapointing return. Sexmane should be able to finish above them whilst last looks a close run thing. I'll suggest Jesse Markin brings slightly less to the competition than Sini Sabotage but it's marginal who finishes last out of the pair.
Prediction
1. Sara Siipola
2. Windows 95 Man
3. Sexmane
4. Mikael Gabriel x Nuublu
5. Cyan Kicks
6. Sini Sabotage
7. Jesse Markin
If you're not involved here already I don't particularly recommend doing so now with better 1.5 shots to be had across the season. Windows95man may hold some small value given he is yet to climb to 2nd where he could eventually end up given the performances.
I'll not speculate on Eurovision chances here given uncertainty around the fav/pick and the whole Israel business, except to say run or not Finland do not have an Esc winner anywhere here.