16th/17th February National Finals
I'm all for a Friday night final and it sure helps ease the load for Saturday however it leaves me in a bit of a pickle. Germany's NF feels too important to relegate to an x post or ignore completely but not worthy enough to have its own lenghty preview, so instead here's an overview for that and every other final on Saturday:
Germany - Das Deutsche Final
The consensus in the odds and amongst betting folk has been that Ryk should win this, would be the best choice and debates on how well he'd perform in Malmo have already begun but revisiting this lineup today makes this look less certain. Firstly, our man's metrics are a mixed bag with a Spotify lead but YouTube lag. From some of the polls and general comments I also get the sense there's more a recognition of quality than an actual enjoyment of the song and I can see why. Trying to be objective 'Oh Boy' is better, but Bodine Monet and even Isaak have entries I would sooner turn to. German schlager is not my thing at all but I can see why some would turn to Marie Reim first too. Overall, she might have the most competitive televote indicators and even later draw but I’d expect the juries to be pegging her back too much. Assuming all things are fairly equal live, which we should, the international jury will find more merrit with Ryk and he should win that side of the vote but here's where Germany's system comes into play; we have the reverse of the Ukraine system where points 1-12 are given by each side of the vote and added together. Any draw is however won by the televote, and that's a dangerous situation for an entry where many doubts have been expressed. He could be exceptionall enough live to take both sides but we've seen Germany make similar decisions in the past and at heavy odds on I'm happy to oppose Ryk - Bodine beating him in the televote is very possible opening the door to victory.
Prediction:
1. Bodine Monet
2. Ryk
3. Isaak
A Eurovision Prediction:
Germany will come 3rd from the big 5 at best with Ryk, worse without.
Moldova - Etapa Nationala
There's not a lot to be said here and it's not a final worth putting too much thought into. I did watch the auditions for this a month back because FML but nothing left a strong impression. 'Fever' of the Catalina Solomac variety was performed with some gusto whilst Pasha Parfeney is back as a writer on 'Anti-Princess' but "anti-climactic" is a more fitting tag with Natalia Barbu ahead in the jury vote and not much reason I can see for her to be displaced. Moldova has a reputation for re-sending the same acts and 2007's Natalia follows in that trend and also has the most 'industry support'. The televote here could also be a runaway for her given some of Moldova's past results and cloudiness over their process. Probably the best choice anyway but the result will be much more emphatic than deserved.
Prediction:
Natalia Barbu
A Eurovision Prediction:
Moldova to NQ.
Estonia - Eesti Laul
What was seen as a h2h between Ollie and the unpronounceables has swung strongly in favour of the latter with lows of 1.05 on offer in some places. Like neighbours Lithuania who we'll come on to, if 5miinust and Puuluup are to be stopped it will take a jury butchering to prevent them making the superfinal. It's not impossible that happens from the traditionally risk averse jurors and there is an excuse to deduct some points over their live performance. I have a very small amount at 2s and don't recommend the 1.2s or so, even if these big favourites in Estonia tend to come through. With nothing else impressing, the automatically qualified Daniel Levi should be the other act in the superfinal.
Prediction:
1. 5Miinust and Puuluup
2. OLLIE
3. Daniel Levi
A Eurovision Prediction:
Estonia will not be top Baltic.
Denmark - Dansk Melodi Grand Prix
Maybe the most interesting national final in terms of odds, but certainly not songs. We have a more unknown favourite at the start of the running order with the strongest song, a former known name towards the end who is rumoured to be DR's favourite and a previous winner in the middle. For my money, the value is on Aura Dione as the suspected 'chosen one' and whilst 'Mirrorball of Hope' isnt great, it's not outclassed enough by Saba's 'Sand' and I find it keeps me slightly more interested through the full three minutes. Bassim's entry 'Johnny' (who is the same Johnny in my headcannon as the 2006 twister) should complete the top 3. As a one and done NF with very little interest or public exposure pre I advise to wait for news from rehearsals tomorrow before going hard at this but Aura does appeal at current odds.
Prediction:
1. Aura Dione
2. Saba
3. Basim
A Eurovision prediction:
Another NQ for Denmark
*Rehearsals update-
Aura with a really tacky performance, more likely to miss top 3 than win. Vocals not sufficiently covered. Basim with the most staging thrown at him, Saba solid. Those will be the top 2.
Lithuania - Eurovizija.LT
This prediction here is kind of the opposite of the above as here the quality vs name angle looks to distinct and I don't think fans of Silvester Belt should have too much to worry about. Holding onto first place in every meaningful stat and poll, the main alternative of The Roop are being overestimated based on their past success here with 'Simple Joy' simply not delivering. From the many former Eurovision representatives in national finals across Europe, this is by far the biggest come down and is not something they should get away with. The margin of perceptions of both entries is such that even outperforming their stats and entry, The Roop shouldn't be able to close the gap. Lithuania's choice of 'the big name' last year adds some caution but that was a much tighter year without a standout choice (wrongly - #justiceforpetunija). At first glance the running order favours them but with a reset superfinal and phone lines apparently open from the start of the show it shouldn't matter. Lithuania's jury's are questionable and more prone to the names, but are they really going to bury 'Luktelk' so it can't make the 100% televote superfinal? Other runners VB Gang and Monika Marija likewise shouldn't threaten. There's not much action here which is a shame as I genuinely feel 1.3+ is value.
Prediction:
1. Silvester Belt
2. The Roop
3. Monika Marija
A Eurovision Prediction:
Lithuania shorten in to at least the 30s-40s range, finish 9th-13th.