Odds Review- Week Ending 02/05
With Eurojury now underway, close to 99% of the market's focus is on estimating and analysing the scores and of course that’s what’s on the menu here too.
Below is the current top 20 estimates:
Bulgaria have drifted to their first 20s+ price of the year racking up yet more numbers not befitting of a frontrunner. Given last years 9th place, this was fairly expected. They are interesting only as a ‘dark horse’ at this stage.
Malta have a solid enough lead when considering their greater frequency of points which again was fairly predictable. It's not however an astounding number so far looking at the averages.
Switzerland are doing about as expected in joint third and see no significant movement.
Italy have however closed the gap on them and a top 5 placing here makes them incredibly dangerous being 'more of a televote song'. France have slipped somewhat for the opposite reason with 'a jury song' really needing a better showing here. For once I will stick up for Barbara in that if jurors are sticking to the official playlist the far inferior music video is being judged (though that’s also true for Maneskin). Even with that caveat, the drift is still more than fair in my opinion and will be larger should ground not be made up.
It's not too dissimilar for Sweden whose scoring is often replicated at Eurovision proper. Finding themselves behind Italy and Iceland at this stage does not bode well for the huge jury lead Tusse would need to place above the pair.
As for Iceland, there was always the possibility juries would rank Dadi somewhat above his station which appears to be the case. He's a green for me as high 20s always looked a peak price so I'm not too bothered but I have big doubts he can get the job done. The semi win is not unlikely and perhaps sneaking into the top 5 is back on the cards. There could also be another run on them should semi final two data look promising.
Lithuania is a curious one and whatever your thoughts on it's strengths or otherwise, sitting so far below Iceland and even Germany in the "novelty" grouping seems a little extreme. Momentum gained following its decent OGAE polling has been thrown straight back.
San Marino has had a shockingly bad time of things and with still no news on the big guy, it looks like they're going to to be on the low end of their wide range with Cyprus instead the banger receiving the love.
Israel is one flying high yet remains at high odds with most convinced there’s only so far ‘Set Me Free’ can be elevated. I’d still go along with that, though they have exceeded expectations at every opportunity.
Without wanting to bang the drum too hard, Romania continue to press their case as the main outsider to keep an eye on with a respectable showing. Most metrics have them in that sort of numerical range (low top 10 to early teens) that dark horses tend to spring from. Eleni Foureira comes to mind as does the eventually unsuccessful Chingiz and clearly false Bilal Hassani both from 2019.
Overall, Azerbaijan’s score appears the least reliable with big points from the irrelevant Turkey and suspicious Malta.
Away from the outright, Austria and Belgium are looking less secure as jury push-throughs, with Israel and Portugal perhaps taking those titles.
OGAE voting is also ongoing and remains as you were for the most part. Greece have also salvaged their harsh drift somewhat in the past few hours with Stefania’s first live vocal of ‘Last Dance’. All eyes remain on the staging and they’re one to look out for.
