Odds Review- Week Ending 25/04
I usually prefer to keep these a bit more brief and matter of fact, but since we've seen quite a few moves this week I'll share a few more thoughts than usual here.
Starting at the beginning of the week and Australia's Montaigne has been spared a likely scramble for a Wednesday morning flight back home with her 'live on tape' performance being used. The already dubious televote is likely to become non-existent with the question "why are they in this?" even more prominent.
Sweden above 20 starts to look a little more interesting with Eurojury reveals on their way and particularly if e/w bookmaker prices begin to follow the drift. Vocals have been progressively poorer from Tusse since his first Melfest performance and he will be having a 'minor operation' aiming to address this which is something to keep an eye on.
Greece and Romania have slipped further back as the short-term thinking of the market rears it's head. Ideally, both would be polling slightly stronger but they both still promise the same strong staging concepts as a week or two back.
France made another push for favouritism, briefly going level with Malta before edging back out again. Barbara is probably the most divisive of the frontrunners between believers and doubters, challenging for that honour with our second French language ballad.
Italy have made a considerable jump solidifying themselves as fourth in the odds. The move began in midweek and one possible answer is early access to Eurojury data. If Italy do find a placing in the top 5 rather than top 10 there then double figures will probably be gone for good. Now obviously the "pre parties" this year have devolved mainly into acoustic sessions so Italy was always going to play well, but "Zitti E Buoni" packs a really strong punch in this field and their Addresse Rotterdam scoring was impressive. Probably the most warranted odds move overall.
Bulgaria have suffered a slight wobble in their price with few metrics going their way as of yet and coupled with Italy’s shortening, find themselves in no mans land fifth in the odds. Eurojury will likely decide whether they join the front four somewhat or slip further and it’s worth bearing in mind a somewhat disappointing 9th place for Victoria last year there.
Ukraine have had a good week, practically slashing their odds in half. ‘Shum’ is obviously not going to come close to winning, but looks more assured of a spot in the final and a solid positioning overall.
A quick word also on the Czech Republic as there's a not insignificant number of folk who feel ‘Omaga’ could do well. Qualification is an ask and it's hard to see it higher than a 17th place in the final say. That said however, it certainly does not deserve to be squatting with the likes of the Netherlands, Latvia and Germany in the outright market.
A shout-out at this point to Croatia’s Albina who may be the most likeable and telegenic act of the year and another commonly labelled a potential overperformer. There are Eleni Foureira vibes with her and the 'average' but catchy "Tick-Tock" which is easily the best package in triple figures. Much like with the Czech’s, this is still one that should be a big outsider but there’s more room for downwards rather than upwards movement.
Finally Ogae scores continue to filter through and there’s nothing too unexpected as Switzerland retain a strong lead:
1. Switzerland — 134 points
2. Malta — 104 points
3. France — 102 points
4. Lithuania — 77 points
5. San Marino — 75 points
6. Cyprus — 71 points
7. Sweden — 48 points
8. Italy — 39 points
9. Azerbaijan — 33 points
10. Croatia — 22 points
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13. Iceland — 12 points
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21. Bulgaria — 3 Points
I believe we can finally hope for some Eurojury scoring from Monday and it’s long overdue in a year like this. For the record, and just for fun- I predict something like this:
Malta
Sweden
Switzerland
Lithuania
San Marino
France
Italy
Greece
Iceland
Romania
Bulgaria
Croatia
