Odds Review- Week Ending 07/03

Well, that was a busy week to say the least. San Remo of course has contributed to much of that for anyone watching the whole thing, but it’s the undoubted highlight of the season for me and there’s a good five or so songs from there that will stay on my playlist for a while. Maneskin ran out the winners and will take ‘Zitti e Buoni’ to Eurovision, a turn of events that has seen Italy go third in the odds at the time of writing, a not unjustified move.

San Marino shook the fandom with Senhit shelling out for a much stronger song than last year and the appearance (at least in the studio version) of Flo Rida. A 10 fold fall in the odds soon followed and anyone with any sense about them would have been backing as much 200/1 e/w whilst it lasted. No-one is saying that will land, there’s a lot that could go wrong here, but a good price is a good price.

Moldova were the most eagerly anticipated internal reveal of the week with the Dream Team’s self hype at unprecedneted levels. ‘Sugar’ is not bad, but has been blown out of the water by ‘Adrenaline’ in that half of semi two. Moldova may make a good opener there. Serbia delivered exactly what was expected in a similar genre to the two, and the troubles are mounting there for qualification given the strengthening field.

The Netherlands’ release was a disappointment to say the least, with Avrotoros clearly terrified of having to host this again. Neighbours Belgium and Hooverphonic upped their game from last year but will be reliant on juries to make the final. Romania were in the chasing pack in the odds until the release of ‘Amnesia’. I’m not disappointed although backers clearly wanted more. Australia have somehow managed to deliver a worse entry than Jendrik and really should be out of the final this year.

Onto the other selection shows and as expected it’s Fyr and Flamme for Denmark who will stay around the bottom of the odds from now until their semi when they will be knocked out. Portugal disappointed backers but The Black Mamba have more about them and may gather enough jury love to make the final. Uku Suviste returns in Estonia, given more firepower this year from the dream team than the awful ‘What Love Is’. He should get through safely enough but is going to lurk at the bottom of polls and odds it seems.

Armenia were forced to withdraw due to the domestic instability there with the last week being the final blow to their hopes. I wish them all the best and hopefully they are in a position to return soon, they have brought a lot to the contest. I do like how whoever or whatever system re-ordered the odds on the exchange, has left Spain below them.

Russia apparently host a national final tomorrow, which will ‘feature’ LittleBig and their song ‘Sex Machine’. Everything about this screams last minute but we’ll soon see what is going on. Bulgaria should confirm ‘Imaginary Friend’ for Rotterdam tomorrow and they will be up there. Switzerland saw a lot of love on the market entering the teens from a consistent 20+ and Cyprus have continued their climb back up the odds since release. The early 40+s were too big, the current under 20s too small, nuff said, especially considering the field. Finland suffered a bad week with the arrival of Maneskin on the scene which is self explanatory.

At some point this week- I think, it’s been a busy one- North Macedonia teased Vasil’s entry which appears another misguided attempt to jump on the gospel bandwagon and they should be going straight back into the NQ bin this year.

This is the last update here before the Melfest final in Sweden so in brief a Tusse win would probably see a small drift - if any, Saade might cause a market crash and The Mamas another selling frenzy if they can upset the odds like last year. A full preview of that is coming in the next week, probably Tuesday or Thursday.

Iceland unveil their entry ‘10 Years’ on the same night, and despite the entire pack shuffling, Iceland have stubbornly clung to their recent 8s. A lot has been staked on this and the market will likely entire full blown panic mode after the reveal.

We may or may not have all the entries by the next update, but everything currently confirmed is over in song reviews.