Odds Review- Week Ending 14/03
The week began with Russia’s impromptu national final and the first market panic of the week with the confirmation LittleBig would not be taking part. Manizha narrowly took the victory and will take ‘Russian Woman’ to Rotterdam. She’s recovered somewhat in the odds since the initial panic and a revamp is promised yet this is certainly too jarring to a western audience and juries to reach the sort of placing Russia have come to expect. Austria is quite a dull 3 minutes and I’m not sure how much room for improvement there is live but qualification is not beyond Vincent this time around.
Greece were one of the many victims of a leak this year. After being able to lay this around mid 20s, Stefania now sits at 70+ which may be a tad high now. There’s a good, albeit slightly generic entry in here and we’ll have to wait and see what Fokas can do.
Bulgaria didn’t get the feedback they were looking for from fans so simply ignored it, instead going with ‘Growing Up Is Getting Old’. I am in two minds over whether this was the right choice or not and I can only assume they have a good staging concept for this one. They’re a fairly comfortable second favourite at this time.
Speaking of favourites, Switzerland, jumped into pole position following the release of Gjon’s Tears’ ‘Tout L’Universe’. A worthy move but the shortening later in the week following two market disappointments looks too much. I’m keen on its chances too but there are serious question marks there as well and I’m not sure this is so far in front of the pack.
James Newman’s entry was again leaked by Czech Radio before its radio 2 review. It’s a big improvement on last year, but still has the markings of a song that’s everyone’s 6th or 7th favourite which may lead The UK to underperform.
North Macedonia is not my kind of thing at all and is a real hit or miss effort. Poland on the other hand is no more and no less than borderline and hoping for enough of a diaspora vote to avoid last place should it qualify. Latvia is probably the least vote-able entry of the year in studio form and the final looks a long way off.
Sweden selected Tusse yesterday with one of the biggest televote shows of support in Melfest’s history. In fact it’s been a year of big televote favourites winning national finals with The Roop, Maneskin and Blind Channel all having highly impressive margins. The jury wasn’t quite as impressive at Melodifestivalen but you get the sense roles will be reversed in Rotterdam.
Iceland had Dadi’s follow up leaked earlier in the week, and if that didn’t spook the market, the by the numbers performance certainly did. They’re around 6th-7th favourite as of now and that might be the best placing Dadi can hope for.
Georgia’s entry was teased this week and Tornike looks like a man forced at gunpoint to return to the contest.
We also got an entry from Belarus -kind of- with the since disqualified ‘Ya Nauchu Tebya’. If Belarus do end up staying in the contest (most likely with changed lyrics alone given the late stage) it might be down to a call from Moscow informing BTRC that Russia could really do with those 24 points in the semi final. A withdrawal would also spell trouble for Ukraine.
Azerbaijan are almost certainly going to be very similar to last year and, whilst it should be fairly strong, this probably isn’t the year for that. Actually no, half of it has leaked as I’m typing this and lets just say the path for Armenia’s return next year looks a lot more likely- Baku is out of the question for good.
Malta are the big one left to reveal tomorrow and I know they know Destiny is their big hope to finally win the thing. They’ve been sitting back as always and waiting for everyone else to show their hand, now it’s their turn.
In other news, Cyprus have one of the silliest graphs I’ve ever seen and its worth just repeating how mad it is: from around 55-18s pre song with the artist and title known, an immediate jump from 18s back to around 50 on release, a steady climb back down to high teens and now a steady ish rise back close to 40s. It’s silly over-reactions both ways like this that make this such a fun and profitable game.
Song reviews for all the new entries are on the site and Ukraine‘s has been updated following their significant revamp.
Finally, I’ve not said anything yet on it, but the fact that close to half the field are 300/1+ ‘no hopers’ is more to do with them being very poor rather than a great standard at the top. Rehearsals might improve matters, they usually do, but this is looking like quite a weak year.
