Odds Review- Week Ending 24/01/2021
A few sizeable moves this week so lets crack right on. Lithuania have traded as low as single figures following the release of The Roop’s ‘Discoteque’ with the entry a worthy successor to ‘On Fire’. Many in the betting community have been quick to write this off, and whilst a win looks hard, this is not a cheap lay of the impossible and those backing against will be playing the long game, unless we have an above average year. The 10s the market has settled at might appear a bit short, but this is the most competitive entry we have heard anywhere this year yet so its only fair it sits near the top of the odds, at least for the time being. My full opinions will of course follow when this wins through the NF.
Finland have also come in further with Blind Channel’s ‘Dark Side’ receiving some love, also briefly touching 10s before stabilising somewhere in the 20s. UMK could go a few ways as mentioned in our preview and more volatility can be expected.
Norway are back in the 20s with the growing probability of a Tix victory in MGP and the feeling ‘Monument’ is quite average regardless. The early chasing pack of Malta, Switzerland and Romania continue to slide in the odds (along with all of last weeks mid table countries) with attentions elsewhere. The 100+ “no hopers” also drifted out with more liquidity entering the market. The former former Yugoslav republic of North Macedonia and Portugal ensured their position in that crowd with neither the re-selection of Vasil or the Festival de Cancao songs not promising too much. A select few countries in this crowd may appeal for those who enjoy some dumpster diving in the long odds.
Finally, a move on Iceland overnight saw the country backed down to 6s for no apparent reason. Either someone with insider knowledge was stupidly impatient to lump on, or someone was just being stupid. A bonus third option for conspiracy fans; it’s Netflix money keeping Daði Freyr top of the pile…
Regardless it has meant Iceland remain a cautious 1st place in the odds, just ahead of Lithuania. Bulgaria, ever aware of their position in the odds and need for attention have announced some ‘news on plans’ for next week, most likely to be a further announcement on when there will be an announcement. Israel and France -who somehow find themselves in the top 10 of the betting despite not having a single top 10 song in their national final- both select their songs in the next week. Reviews of ‘Ue La La’ and Barbara Pravi’s ‘Voila’ are ready to go, we’ll soon see if I’ve wasted my time writing them…
*Odds accurate at time of writing, estimations made where necessary.
That’s all for this week, what are your thoughts on the current odds and the weeks moves? Leave a comment below.