A Brief preview of Eesti Laul and Dansk Melodi Grand Prix
Since we’re about to enter a busy week of internal selections followed by more melfest and the start of San Remo, I think now is a good chance to have a look at two finals that I haven’t covered yet.
I’ve decided to combine the two here as I don’t think there is enough to say on either to drag out two full previews on each, especially not looking at all the runners and riders in detail. Both Finals will take place on March 6th.
It’s fair to say these are not the best line-ups either country has ever had. They are also fairly similar in having some clear favourites and no women anywhere near the top of the odds, but we’ll start with the weakest and easiest to call…
Dansk Melodi Grand Prix
This should be a fairly convincing win for Fyr & Flamme. Their entry has by far the largest spotify numbers out of the runners and they are one of the higher profile entrants, although that isn’t saying much here. This should probably be quite heavy odds-on, especially considering the 100% televoting format. I can see why The Cosmic Twins would attract a chunk of the betting, with the only song that sounds as if it is from this century, but their appeal is much narrower. Chief 1 and Thomas Buttenschon are third favourites and look stronger than the twins, certainly more appealing at prices available, but they're quite far back on some of the metrics.
MGP throws out an odd result every so often, and shocks are more likely in a weak line-up, but I don’t think the numbers can be ignored here.
Prediction: Fyr og Flamme
Eesti Laul
Things are much more interesting (and of a better standard) in Estonia were Uku Suviste is being pushed hard by former Eurovision participant Koit Toome whilst , Juri Pootsman, also a familiar name to Eurovision fans is threatening to deliver the goods too.
It’s a three horse race and all three of these have won Eesti Laul before. This is, very much like Melfest with the same acts year in year out, a final that takes place over several years, and as much of it is down to the narrative as the song.
That brings me to the narrative, and to me there’s a certain element of ‘what are you doing Koit?’ ‘You’ve been to Eurovision twice already, and failed to qualify in your recent effort and now you’re back to take the spot from poor Uku who was denied his chance last year’. Now that hasn’t come into play yet, but with Eesti Laul’s top three format encouraging that sort of thinking, you have to imagine that will play at least some part in the public’s thinking. The final round changes minds from ‘I like him’ to ‘I want him to win’.
Apart from that possible narrative however, everything seems to be conspiring against Uku. He has the earliest draw in 6th, is getting less traction than the other two and parts of his staging aren't working. Despite being a housewife's favourite himself, Koit rules that demographic, whilst Juri seems to have taken his younger share too.
It's all got a little complicated for Uku.
As for Juri, I don't think The Pootsman wins twice in this lineup. Whilst charting the better, the more experimental effort being overlooked at the late stages is almost an annual tradition in Eesti Laul when the televote takes 100% and the juries drop out of the reckoning. Estonia's Spotify heavily favours him right now, but I'm not convinced how well that will correlate to the viewers at home going off Estonia's previous of ‘safe’ entries winning. I doubt he's able to beat both Uku and Koit.
After ruling Juri out, there's two options for how this plays out then for me:
The public rally around Uku when it comes time to actually pick an act for Eurovision.
The safer entry sung by the more popular Koit cuts through the middle.
I lean towards number 2. Poor Uku certainly is not a lucky one. It does look more and more that a large sympathy vote (which is possible) is all that can get him through here.
Prediction:
1st: Koit Toome
2nd: Uku Suviste
3rd: Juri Pootsman
So overall, the much better bet is in Denmark (where you can get higher odds on Fyr Og Flamme than Uku somehow) whilst by far the better and more interesting show is in Estonia.
Feel free to leave any thoughts of your own in the comments.