Norway: Melodi Grand Prix Final Preview
It’s took us a while to get here and we’ve had to sit through some very mediocre attempts in the heats, but the MGP final takes place this Saturday. I appreciate the effort from NRK and it’s given fans something to enjoy, but I’m not sure the depth of songs/talent is quite there yet to drag this out for so many weeks and the format of double head to heads + a 15 song free for all wildcard round could be refined.
On top of this the final will be made up of three 100% televoting rounds with a top 4 and top 2, which again seems like overkill. Anyhow, the the running order is the following:
Atle Pettersen – “World On Fire”
Raylee – “Hero”
Stavangerkameratene – “Who I Am”
KIIM – “My Lonely Voice”
Blåsemafian feat. Hazel – “Let Loose”
Emmy – “Witch Woods”
TIX – “Fallen Angel”
Kaja Rode – “Feel Again”
Rein Alexander – “Eyes Wide Open”
IMERIKA – “I Can’t Escape”
KEiiNO – “Monument”
Jorn – “Faith Bloody Faith”
It’s your typical scandi running order with a back heavy lineup, including favourites in second to last and the big name you’d rather not win a bit earlier, as well as the wildcard in the pimp slot. One thing that does stand out is Raylee in the no.2 slot. There are worse entries that could have gone there and it has completely put a stop to any faint hope she had, and maybe cost her a top 4. There’s a lot still to come after her.
In terms of betting then, I think the value is pretty much gone and the market has it right now: This is a KEiiNO vs TIX head to head, with KEiiNO having the edge, and it would be a surprise if that’s not the final.
KEiiNO was a long price a month back whilst TIX was available at 7.5 earlier in the week. The current odds for both of around 1.6/3.5 seem about right, if maybe still a bit long on TIX. TIX’s fans will push him far in this, but KEiiNO probably have the wider audience appeal when it comes down to the final head to head and any international votes will be overwhelmingly for them.
If you're not involved alread though, it's probably too late. I also don't like to recommend odds as short as 1.2, which you can find on TIX to come top 4, but from a probability standpoint, I make that about 98%. Whether you can get on enough to make it worthwhile is another question. Jorn might also be one to watch for a shock top 4. His song has been heard a good few times now, he’s in the pimp slot, and has already shown he can come through a bigger field. If you want something else to back for that market, that would be my recommendation although its still more likely he misses out, probably with Rein going through.
IMMERIKA having a late draw and being featured more recently gets the nod for the other top 4 spot above the likes of Blasemafian and Raylee.
Here’s my prediction for the final:
TOP 4: TIX, IMMERIKA, KEiiNO, Rein Alexander
Top 2: TIX, KEiiNO
Winner: KEiiNO
From a Eurovision perspective, I think even the most anti-KEiiNO amongst us would agree they're Norway's best hope. Sub 20 prices are already dubious, but a TIX win would surely mean triple figures and a lot of panic selling. Backing Norway isn’t too appealing, not least because they are not winning regardless of a KEiiNO victory. Sure, they would trade lower but if you want to support ‘Monument’ you’re better off still just backing them in MGP and taking those winnings now. That’s the way I see it anyway.
Feel free to leave your predictions in the comments below.