Eurovision 2021: Semi Final Two Preview
My pick for 1st here is Iceland. Has their Covid test and use of their rehearsal recording changed things? in some ways yes, in others no. I’m still trying to assess whether there’s a net benefit or a net loss to them. The lack of an audience is a disadvantage, but whereas for every other country the ‘This was recorded last week tag’ is hurtful, if coupled with the 'poor little Iceland’ branding and ‘last year’s winner’ there may be a cancelling out of sorts. It’s something I’ll go into more detail on in the final but it’s vital they remain the only one to suffer- otherwise it’s gone. Iceland were second placed in Eurojury in the semi and the most reliable of the front 3 with the televote so have to get the nod with 6s+ a very nice price.
Switzerland slot in second. They’ve made a mess of this and going down the avant-garde route still ill advised even if they have pulled it back with a good jury showing. It’s the likely jury winner but I see the televote being more lukewarm- boosted by latching onto some Albanian support.
Bulgaria are a tentative pick for third here. Let’s be frank- its stats pretty much everywhere but the odds are poor. I understand the arguments for this and the gap in the market but on the other hand if we come out of the semi and this is below non-qualifiers in YouTube views it wouldn’t surprise. The draw following Georgia, Albania and Portugal is also poor for me and then Finland memory holes it of sorts. They’re covered enough in the outright but should this go 50s+ following more disappointing stats and a first half draw I wouldn’t be surprised.
San Marino paid Flo Rida his money and he gives this a big boost, as does toning down the eccentricity of this performance. A big televote looks likely and it will be interesting to see what happens price wise here.
Greece may come close to the top 3 as something that should be consistent enough with televoters and juries. There’s no question about qualification, but their temperamental effects will need to be at a better level for much more. On the whole the effects are both not quite working whilst being simultaneously too fake possibly.
Portugal go through on jury points alone but could do well on the televote too. They’re a solid middle of the pack for me.
We then edge further down the scoreboard with Finland who have to make the list in this field and given their running order. It’s another one mainly relying on the televote which should be high here, although a likely harsh jury score will probably stop this challenging higher here. There’s room for it to both under and overperform and I’ve just edged towards the former, even if it’s gone green on the outright at 100+ given the potential for some post semi hype. I’m open minded on this also getting a top 3 televote.
It’s uncomfortable for the last three spots but I’m going to nervously throw Serbia onto my qualifiers list for the first time this season. Backing this around 1/4 is ill advised and I’m not as impressed as others with this- it’s performed well but juries are still liable to blank it. My maths has over-ruled my instinct and I have to have the televote saving this but we saw Croatia fail in likely similar circumstances just two days ago.
And now for the one that will raise the most eyebrows- I’m sticking with Estonia. There are a few assumptions here: 1.) He’s going to be around the same/not too far behind Austria with the juries. 2.) The Dream Team connections will see some dubious points from Greece, Albania and Moldova. 3.) Finland, Latvia and Poland are going to be kind. 4.) With a few jury no-goes (Georgia, Poland, Latvia, Denmark, Czech Rep and possibly Serbia) and his inoffensive song he can pick up consistent 2s and 3s. The main negative is his draw having to follow Flo Rida and of course being followed by, well, a lot. Not confident at all, but I’d kick myself if he scraped in and I threw him out at the last.
Moldova doesn’t do much wrong and similar to Estonia still has that Kirkorov backing which may result in some kind jury scores, particularly with Greece, Estonia and Albania all getting involved in a bit of a grouping here. They’re not comfortable but make every list I’ve done.
That means narrowly missing out is Austria. They’ve improved throughout rehearsals but I’m not certain the juries can do enough here, there’s less of a natural support base and Vincent’s song is equally as forgettable as Uku’s snd his draw not a whole lot better.
Albania go 12th with it difficult to see who outside of the diaspora is going to vote for Anxhela whilst there are better jury songs. I don’t think its one to light up on twitter either so looks a very short price right now.
Denmark are a more comfortable NQ. I get the sense it’s the type of thing that would sneak through in 9th or 10th in a 100% televote system and not an entry that can compensate for what should be a hefty jury drag.
After them we’re into the ones that would shock me. Poland’s diaspora is often overstated but the 25 or so points I can see him mustering should be enough to keep him of the bottom. Watch out for a potential vote swap with San Marino.
The Czech Republic have done nothing at all to stage ‘Omaga’ and after putting the effort in to make his music video as meme-able and memorable (memeorable?) as possible, Benny has seemed resigned to his fate since day one, even when he has tried harder with the audience for last night’s jury show.
Samanta’s usually superb vocals were the one saving grace of this horrible package from Latvia but even that deserted her somewhat at the jury show. In the mix for last, and only a bit of neighbourly love can save it from that fate.
Georgia just about retain that spot. Neighbourly love is something Georgia don’t have here. On paper, there’s the odd thing for juries to appreciate but I’m personally not confident they will whilst the televote will likely be non existent. It’s a good thing they’re not results oriented, because this may sting a little.
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate (Jury/T.V)
Iceland (3rd/1st) 315 (150/165)
Switzerland (1st/2nd) 310 (160/150)
Bulgaria (2nd/7th) 245 (160/85)
San Marino (6th/3rd) 240 (100/140)
Greece (5th/4th) 210 (100/110)
Portugal (4th/8th) 190 (115/75)
Finland (10th/6th) 135 (45/90)
Serbia (13th/5th) 115 (20/95)
Estonia (7th/11th) 100 (65/35)
Moldova (9th/10th) 95 (55/40)
Austria (8th/14th) 90 (65/25)
Albania (11th/12th) 70 (35/35)
Denmark (14th/9th) 70 (20/50)
Poland (15th/13th) 45 (15/30)
Czech Rep (13th/15th) 35 (20/15)
Latvia (16th/15th) 20 (10/10)
Georgia (15th/16th) 20 (15/5)
Like semi final one, I’ve made a conscious effort to keep liabilities low here and I’m close to zero. I’ve not really bothered taking a position either way on many of the border liners. Free runs are there on Portugal and Estonia to Q as well as a sizeable free go at Iceland to win through. Latvia and Poland to NQ the one thing I’m waiting on really.
Taking a look at post semi, as mentioned I get the impression Bulgaria is going to go either way and either join the front pack or be virtually wrote off. Switzerland is one I’m not sure what will happen with and will likely correlate against France. I lean towards Iceland and San Marino coming in, but they are admittedly priced with that expectation. Finland and Portugal are as high as they are going I’d venture with Greece a bit of an enigma, it could catch the imagination or remain in three figures. I’d argue San Marino or them will be getting the pimp slot should they draw second half.