Eurovision 2021 Grand Final Preview
Well, anyone who has been following the site or myself at twitter will know what I think so there's no point in dragging it out- the winner is Italy for me and has been since we had the full field. I should also add that despite Italy being an almost annual runner, this is the first year I've tipped them for the title at any point, 2017 included, anyway let’s get on with my prediction…
1- Italy
Going back months now, Maneskin are an act I had my eye on before San Remo even- they just have that star quality. On first viewing back in Italy, I was worried for them getting through the field and in a way I feel that was the hard part, rather than doing well at Eurovision.
I've also never seen the Italians stroll up to first rehearsals and pretty much nail it from the start-instead of 'why have they done that? ' we have great moments like Damiano's entrance/bow and drop at the end. Instead of 'is that it?' we have great lighting and all the pyro. It starts well, doesn't let go and ends on a high. Italy are always hard to judge the stats on given the size of their music industry and big 5 status but from what I can see, the signs are good for that televote win. There's strong views and the like to view ratio is one of if not the strongest. Its also doing some decent business on Spotify. The running order is as good as possible given the draw and I think the producers are actually signalling this as the one. The jury vote remains a doubt even if Eurovision has come a distance in awarding more unconventional genres since Manga in 2010 for example for the last credible rock favourite. It's not impossible to win the jury vote although Malta are the favourite in my book and its unlikely to beat France there. It probably slots in the next bracket somewhere but will be more than close enough to take the trophy.
2. Iceland
It’s possible to have gone down the rabbit hole of overthinking this one but these are my thoughts anyway…
Iceland has always needed a reason to overpunch it’s song worth this year. Where last year had that pre-contest hype, this time around it might have that narrative. Backing on a sympathy vote is hard and rarely much comes from it at Eurovision but I wonder if there’s already a part of that within the juries given some pretty favourable scores in EuroJury. I think there’s an incredible amount of residual love around for Iceland on that side of things and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it do better than it maybe should with juries. The televote is unknown and there’s a mixed bag of stats from semi 2, views and streams are poor but there was a sizeable initial social media interest. I’m expecting the ‘this was recorded days ago’ commentator line to be balanced out by the narrative of poor Iceland, one of last years favourites too etc etc and it’s the only one out of the lineup that can come out of that situation relatively unharmed. There’s also a certain fitting melancholic (particularly that orchestral opening) yet happy vibe to the song that almost goes with the story. I don’t think it wins either side, however with something like a 3/3 split the best case for it, unless we have truly underestimated the televoting appeal of the package.
3. Malta
So with Malta more than any other we need to discuss the draw and it is shocking for them. The early relative position is just the first problem, 'Je Me Casse' doesn't even close its section with the first break coming after Serbia. They're sandwiched in between Russia's feminist anthem and the jury bait that is Portugal. Every other favourite is yet to perform, as are Greece, Azerbaijan and San Marino in the Pimp slot. It's a huge turn up with the draw going out of it's way to hurt Malta.
How far down the televote is this going to be? It already isn't getting past Italy, Ukraine and Iceland and I make Lithuania and France favourites there too before throwing in at least Serbia, Portugal, Switzerland, San Marino and Finland into the equation.
Regardless, as mentioned I think Destiny is our likeliest jury winner. First off, it's Malta a tag that adds a boost on that side at the worst of times. Second, we have undoubted vocals + that empowerment message. Third, we have a modern, accessible yet experimental pop song. All wrapped together in a slick enough, yet totally conventional package.
It just doesn't look likely they reach beyond 150 televote points which all but rules them out of victory with even a full on Dami Im lead indefensible again.
4. France
They just keep climbing higher in my predictions and there are a few reasons for that. There's a gap for a big ballad to start with and the Swiss have cocked things right up in my opinion, at least with the televote. The draw has also fallen kindly for them coupled with there also being signs it's not merely fan fare in the way a typical dated Chanson is. I have to say I have canvassed opinion among casuals and this performed well. Fair play to those who were believers from the start as it's one that I thought would have been cast well adrift by now. I can no longer oppose it. That said, I can't believe in it either. I don't feel it when I watch it, I'm not drawn in, to me it's by the numbers whilst the final 30 seconds lose what interest I had. And it's not something I'm predisposed to disliking by any stretch. 'Voila' also seems like less of a one-and-done than 'Zitti E Buoni' too, more in need of that semi final momentum whilst I have doubts over the general 'look how French I am' atmosphere, something that has let France down in the televote many times.
I don't think it beats Malta with the juries and can't see it finding a way past Italy with the televote so this is as high as I can place it. It has its merits with the televote and whilst different enough could just end up getting a little lost in that back end of Ukraine, Italy and San Marino. Good trading elsewhere has allowed me to make enough peace with it.
5. Ukraine
Ukraine have a hard job. 'Shum' was almost certainly the televote winner in semi one, potentially by a big margin. Of course, they're very likely to be up there again but all we really 'know' is that they'll beat Malta and the rest of semi one on that side of things.
The problem they have is on the jury side. Whilst Italy and Iceland may have to smash France et al in the televote. Ukraine is likely going to need to equally smash those two. Let's be realistic and acknowledge that the problems Italy could face as a divisive entry under the jury ranking system are two-fold here. Go_A are excellent at what they do and it's been a personal favourite all season but I don't know how they finish anywhere near close enough with juries.
6. Portugal
I had my eye on this a little throughout the season but not with a strong conviction. It was backed to qualify early with bits in the top 10 and it's one of my more successful speculative plays this year, as was covering in the outright pre-semi. Let's be clear, it's not winning from 7th in this field but I see it around the jury top 5 and it's worth bearing in mind that if they go rogue again and overlook the favourites, this is in line to be that 'shock' jury winner. There are promising signs in the televote too given some of its stats and this might just be the oasis of calm in a frantic first section (baring Belgium). Probably the best longer odds e/w play.
7. Switzerland
The market seems to believe this won that second semi final but I'm not too sure. I also don't know what it offers televoters in particular and it's probably the worst priced out of that top 6 group. A jury 3rd/4th, televote 9th/10th is my best guess and when you look at the odds for each constituency that's what they're in for pretty much. Gjon’s jury showing (somewhat fluffing the big note) doesn’t help but I’d like to think today’s drift is with people doing the maths and seeing there’s no real way through the pack for it- we’re not going to get a 3/5 or 2/6 compromise winner for example. Could nab a top 4/5 but I really don't think this is in any contention to win.
8. Lithuania
Lithuania have a good level of televote support as a general rule and that may be enough to boost them in or around a top 4 with the public. I’m expecting fellow baltics and the Nordic juries to be kind also so a respectable 10th-12th with them probably balances out to around here.
9. San Marino
Senhit and Flo Rida make for a great showcloser and it's a position they could thrive from. I see it more televote top 10 than top 5 but you never know with the saturday night crowd and the closing spot. The signs are that juries aren’t going to be as thrilled so this sort of region looks the most likely right now.
10. Bulgaria
My changing thoughts on Bulgaria since selection are well documented on these pages and I was cautiously pessimistic this collapse would end up happening. There's still lots here for juries to appreciate which coupled with a mid table televote might just get them in the top 10.
11. Finland
The signs are that Blind Channel did get probably get a top 3 televote in that semi final but it was an ideal draw for them. Following Jendrik is good for them but I have a suspicion that public support tails of here a bit with both Ukraine and Italy taking from it’s vibe whilst I’d be surprised if it’s in the jury top 10.
12. Sweden
From here down to 17th I’ve not much confidence and these could end up in any order. Sweden will struggle on the televote but they should remain a top 10 entry with jurors which gives them this overall spot.
13. Greece
If Greece does well, you’d understand it- Great singer, decent song, distinctive staging and a bit of in built support. Likewise, the suspicions the staging is ‘too much’ are probably correct. I have it just sneaking onto the lefthand side with some technical complexity for juries to like and this also might benefit from the dream team backing.
14. Serbia
A tricky one to assess properly. Hurricane are guaranteed to sweep the Balkan televote and fly with the diaspora too which gives them probably circa 120 points to start with. I am working under the assumption at least half of their views are coming from Serbia (+Montenegro and Bosnia) which isn't going to stand for much. I could be wrong and the draws good for them in closing the first section but mid table seems most likely.
15. Russia
Regional and diaspora support is always strong for Russia but what else they can add is the question. There's a chance some of the juries that tend to blank Russia will chip in a bit more given the message. Western support is more dubious in general and relying purely on the message.
16. Cyprus
One I took on during that brief hype post second rehearsal. Great song, slick staging, performed well enough but not special at all and not all that voteable. Deserves higher but it strikes me as an underperformer and I’m not sure opening the show helps it at all.
17. Azerbaijan
Not a great example of it’s genre but the ethno touch gives this a bit of distinction in the field. I can’t see it much higher however.
18. Norway
I don't think TIX did particularly well in the semi final and his only real path forward was getting some lol votes with the staging’s very literal take on the lyrics. I'm not sure it's going to do quite as well with the public as some early estimates and they're at the bottom of the queue for Nordic jury support.
19. Moldova
Being dumped in 14th somewhat confirms suspicions that this was the 10th place qualifier in semi 2 and the breakdown may reveal more about how this got through. Saying that it's not out of place in the final and is fairly well separated from the other female bops. I know the memes doing the rounds but Natalia is a telegenic presence with those goofy moments making her likeable if anything. Moldova with Kirkorov and a Greek penned song have a decent amount of support behind them and this should dodge the 20s.
20. The Netherlands
There may be enough juries out there who appreciate the message, diversity and Jeangru's conviction here to keep this away from the bottom spots. The televote will be in or close to single figures however despite the late draw.
21. Belgium
I fear for Belgium. Portugal has come and taken that musicianship jury angle and Hooverphonic may end up forgotten suffering a jury dip here. The televote has always looked low and 4th doesn’t help.
22. Albania
I wasn't expecting this to be placed second following 2019 but it does make sense. It won't matter much anyway with no one outside the diaspora likely to touch this regardless. Will get Albania’s fairly base 50-60 and no more.
23. Spain
Blas gives the most meh performance of the year which is always a bad sign. Whilst there's nothing great here, there's also nothing wrong which should lead to a few jury points stacking up and a mediocre televote from Southern Europe. There should be just enough to avoid last but 23rd seems as good as it’s getting.
24. Germany
Annoyingly, this probably isn't coming last. It will most likely be another bad result for Germany however. The jury ranking system does this no favours and I’m not sure how keen the televote will be- there are better ‘fun’ entries.
25. Israel
Israel have had some decent stats in the run up to the contest and despite suspicions the jury pushed them through aren't faring too badly on Spotify and the like. I've said it a few times already this season but surely, surely, that now comes to an end with this drawn in 3rd in a field of 26.
26. The UK
The UK sets off aiming for 12th, find a package that could come 18th and work backwards from there. That run from Hooverphonic through to Dadi just further exposes that James is too far out of his depth, but it's still a shame this is going to turn out so poorly. Whatever artist or song is selected, The UK will continue to suffer for as long as the BBC continue to stage efforts as though its a comic relief interval.
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate (Jury/T.V)
Italy (4th/1st) 500 (200/300)
Iceland (3rd/3rd) 430 (225/205)
Malta (1st/7th) 415 (265/150)
France (2nd/5th) 400 (240/160)
Ukraine (7th/2nd) 385 (120/265)
Portugal (5th/11th) 295 (195/100)
Switzerland (6th/9th) 290 (170/120)
Lithuania (11th/4th) 255 (85/170)
San Marino (10th/6th) 235 (85/150)
Bulgaria (8th/15th) 170 (115/55)
Finland (13th/10th) 170 (50/120)
Serbia (20th/8th) 150 30/120)
Sweden (9th/19th) 130 (95/35)
Greece (12th/16th) 110 (65/45)
Russia (21st/12th) 100 (25/75)
Cyprus (15th/17th) 100 (55/45)
Azerbaijan (17th/13th) 100 (40/60)
Norway (19th/14th) 80 (30/50)
Moldova (18th/20th) 75 (45/30)
The Netherlands (14th/23rd) 60 (50/10)
Belgium (16th/21st) 60 (45/15)
Albania (21st/17th) 55 (20/35)
Spain (23rd/22nd) 35 (20/15)
Germany (24th/24th) 25 (15/10)
Israel (25th/25th) 15 (10/5)
United Kingdom (26th/26th) 6 (5/1)
Market consensus has Italy as a strong favourite overall and whilst they're my strong tip, I'm honestly a little surprised it's fallen like this with the draw and estimated semi results the main cause.
So that’s your lot. I’ve not really gone for anything too outlandish I don’t think- which may or may not be a good thing- expect the unexpected and all that. We’ll be back with post results analysis and the like throughout the next week but until then, good luck and enjoy the show!