The 2021 escbetting Awards

With September arriving we move from the “off season” to the “half off season” where news starts to come in a little quicker and new releases could make it to the Eurovision stage in… well, we don't know yet, its not like Rai to take longer on something than declared ;).

Nevertheless, the end of August is as good an excuse as any to dust off this domain and bid a final farewell to the unique year that was 2021 looking back at the best and worst of the year…

Worst National Final Choice-

Nominees- Sweden, Croatia, Estonia, Norway

I don't think Estonia's other options would have fared much better ruling them out although ‘Magus Melancholia’ would have at the least been more interesting. Nina Kraljic could have qualified for Croatia (and then done quite well) but it's no slam dunk or a similar 'Shock nq' could have been incoming. The real debate is between KEiiNO and Eric Saade. KEiiNO would have seen a fate similar to 2019 though with a televote top 6 or 7 rather than a win. Eric Saade most likely would have kept Sweden's jury favourite streak going with the televote probably letting him down. Overall, he would have done better than KEiiNO and almost much better than Tusse so Melfest gets the wooden spoon.

"Winner": Sweden

Best National Final Choice-

Nominees- Italy, Finland, Russia, France

Whereas Finland, Russia and France emphatically made the correct choice and could have slipped much lower down the scoreboard than Italy, that's tempered by the fact they were much easier decisions. Maneskin entered finals day and the top 3 as outsiders and I highly doubt Ermal Meta or Francesca and Fedez could have reached the top 5 (with better options falling short).

Winner: Italy

Worst staging-

Nominees: The UK, Romania, Ireland, Czech Republic

I'm going to let Romania and Ireland off since they at least brought an idea and a concept if nothing else. The Czech Republic make the shortlist for bringing absolutely none of the fun or charisma that Benny was relying on. The BBC have to take this one home however with the trumpet theme, choreography and outfit choices all well below standard.

"Winner" The UK

Best Staging

Nominees: Ukraine, Italy, France, Russia

France showed how to do stripped back effectively whilst the Italians threw their 'can't stage' tag emphatically in the bin. Russia are worth a shout with their memorable showing but neighbours Ukraine have to take the title here proving once again they're the best in the competition on the visual side.

Over-performance of the year’:

Portugal, Ukraine, Finland, Greece

I hope this category doesn't sound like I'm putting these countries down- that distinction is coming next- it just makes a catchier title than “country who exceeded general odds and opinions”. Ukraine were the highest finisher from the four but by the end of rehearsals this looked about right. Portugal and Greece had contrasting times and predictions both pre and post rehearsals but taking the entire season into account their finishes aren't so wild. Finland take this for me having gathered the in-play hype/panic prices and landing a rare top 10 placing with a large televote score despite not picking up a great deal of momentum.

Flop of the Year

Nominees: Romania, Malta, Bulgaria, San Marino

Bulgaria spent pre song wrestling for favouritism with Iceland and remained around the top 5 in the odds until the semis making their eventual finish disappointing. Malta similarly crashed out of the top 5 on the night having been the pre rehearsals favourite. San Marino and Senhit went to great lengths and expense without even beating Serhat's personal best for the country but at least they qualified, more than can be said for Romania who I think I'll give this one to. Although expectations weren't as high as for the others, they were hovering around the top ten of the odds and ensure Romania have now only been seen in a Eurovision final once in the last six years!

"Winner": Romania

False Hype of the Year

Nominees: Moldova, Greece, Ireland, San Marino.

One reason we love Eurovision betting is that this category can often run into double figures totting up every country that promises something at some stage so limiting this to just the four was tricky. Greece and Ireland both did show up with their self proclaimed "never been done before" stagings although neither quite lived up to the billing- Greece made a respectable 10th whilst Ireland finished last in the semi (again). San Marino succeeded in dragging Flo Rida to Rotterdam but with little success. There's no other winner here however but Moldova with Kirkorov's infamously lavish reveal and claims of an at least top 5 worthy song and I’ll allow him to claim this prestigious honour personally.

Winner 'Moldova'

Likeliest to Return

Nominees: The Roop (Lithuania), Stefania (Greece), Destiny (Malta), Senhit (San Marino)

Now there's a good chance someone who's been following the off season more closely can disprove all of this but right now I'm not too interested in researching myself so feel free to comment below and tell me how wrong I am!

The Roop have a similar situation to Iceland's Dadi Freyr in being a big act in a small industry so may feel that pressure to go back but would likely be more receptive to the idea anyway. San Marino’s talent pool is even smaller of course and they are no strangers to sending the same artist again and again including Senhit herself. I'm sure the dream team will be back again for Greece at some or multiple points in the next 5 years and Stefania might get the call as part of that. Destiny is the obvious one however and you'd imagine after a few years of licking their wounds, sulking and saving up some money Malta will send her for another title challenge.

Winner: Destiny (Malta)

Shock Result of the year

Nominees: San Marino 22nd, Moldova 13th, UK Double Nil Points, Cyprus 15th

Notably, I don't think the final produced many positive shocks with countries doing better than expected, or at least not to the same extent as previous years. As already mentioned, the likes of Ukraine were expecting a high finish by the night of the final. Moldova were perhaps the only country to finish 5+ spots above the consensus but ‘shock’ is way too strong a term. San Marino’s big name + pimp slot counted for nothing in the end achieving a lowly placing even for the most pessimistic whilst the UK sunk to a level of humiliation thought almost impossible under the revised scoring system. I think I will go with Cyprus however with ‘El Diablo’ cracking the top 4/5 of the odds after rehearsals as its not often the market gets it so wrong at that stage and even as one of the naysayers I never had them quite that low.

Winner: Cyprus

Worst price of the year

Nominees: Iceland pre-song @7s, Cyprus pre-semi @12s, Bulgaria first rehearsal @9s, Finland in play @13s

All of these prices are poor obviously but Iceland at the least had the 'last year's unofficial winner' tag and would have got one something back e/w. Bulgaria’s post rehearsal price was a case of believers seeing what they wanted to see and a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy of a lively outsider. The logic was solid but just nah- no one felt it and Victoria was too easily dismissed as boring. Finland is slightly excused with it hard to tell how much of their in play push was due to casual money and good ‘ol panic. Again, Cyprus has to take the crown given their eventual finishing position, and timing of the move.

“Winner”: Cyprus

Best Price of the year

Nominees: Italy @13s-14s Early April, Ukraine @ 150~ Mid March, Finland 150+ pre semi, Malta 25+ pre song.

The eventual winneris pretty much always going to pick this one up unless we have a very short priced favourite and it’s no different for 2021 with Maneskin spending most of the season in double figures. Honorable mentions go to Ukraine and Finland who offered some great trading opportunities and anyone able to buy at their peaks and sell at their shortest price would have made over a 10 fold return which I think deserves more of a shout and is a more interesting pick than the eventual placers. Despite it not turning out for them after all, looking back Malta’s pre song price was still arguably the pick of the bunch given what we knew at the time.

Winner: Italy

Personal Favourite:

Nominees: Romania, Ukraine, Italy, Portugal.

Live performance as well as time go quite a way in this of course but there's not a whole lot of songs I have a great affection for and Portugal's only really here to keep us at an even four nominees-it's a few rings below the others. ‘Zitti E Buoni’ has the advantage of winning me the most money but isn't quite my favourite. Romania's failure to bring ‘Amnesia’ to life means it too falls down leaving the winner as ‘Shum’ with the original version now long out of my memory.

Winner: Ukraine

Personal Bottom:

Nominees: Netherlands, Georgia, Latvia, Australia

I don't really want to take too big a dump on these songs months after the fact but in the interest of balance- ‘Birth of A New Age’ is a lazy composition that does nothing for me. ‘You’ is the least offensive of the three but is hard to take seriously. Latvia and Australia's efforts are the most grating by a long margin but out of every song this year only ‘The Moon Is Rising’ has nothing good at all for me in its three minutes.

“Winner”: Latvia